Robson Conceicao vs O’Shaquie Foster Predictions: Can the rematch avoid controversy?

WBC super featherweight champion Robson Conceicao runs it back with O’Shaquie Foster this Saturday, November 2. The fight takes place at the Turning Stone Casino in Verona, New York. Sky Sports Main Event will broadcast the show live.

Here are my Conceicao vs Foster predictions ahead of this intriguing super featherweight rematch.

Rematches in boxing usually take place for three reasons, if one avoids the rogue “nobody asked for this” genre that encompasses fights like Tyson Fury vs Derek Chisora III and Devin Haney vs George Kambosos II. 

The first is due to quality. Fights so ferocious that a sequel is a prerequisite. Think Arturo Gatti and Micky Ward’s enchanting trilogy. The second is shock factor. An upset winner gets thrown to the lions to see if they can avoid their destined mauling a second time. Some get literally mauled in doing so, Like Evander Holyfield leaving his rematch against Mike Tyson with considerably less ear tissue than he started with.

The third is the reason Conceicao is making the first defence of his title against the man he won it from in Foster. Their first fight was not one of fan-thrilling quality. The result was an upset, but not the jaw-dropping Hasim Rahman variety. A rematch was not a prerequisite on those grounds alone.

No, the reason this technical and action-light bout is receiving a sequel is due to controversy. Foster, in the view of most observers, had done enough to retain his championship. When two of the three scorecards went in Conceicao’s favour, there was consternation. This rematch is taking place to try and address the errors of the first one.

That context is always interesting. Sometimes it can lead to an over-correction from the judges. See Lennox Lewis boxing better in his first fight against Holyfield than his second, but getting awarded a comfortable decision in the sequel to make up for their initial draw. 

It also creates a dynamic in which both fighters approach the bout knowing they need to do better this time. Foster might have won hearts and minds, but ultimately it wasn’t enough. Conceicao might have taken home the iconic WBC bauble, but there was little positivity about his performance. 

One hopes this necessary vigour from both men leads to an improved fight. A chaotic last round aside, the first meeting was no spectacle. Judging discourse is growing tiresome in boxing, much like a football fan may be sick to the back teeth of VAR chat. But in the case of this fight, the controversy gave it a place in the discourse that it did not warrant based on action alone.

For Foster it was a moral victory that shone brighter than a lot of his actual wins. Clearly prodigiously talented, his brief WBC title reign often flattered to deceive. ‘Ice Water’ looked like a million dollars in outboxing Oscar Valdez to take the title in February 2023. But he needed to pull a 12th-round knockout out of the bag while behind on the cards against Eduardo Hernandez. Abraham Nova gave him fits too, before Foster rallied with another late knockdown to take a split decision. 

Meanwhile, Foster now finds himself in the position to which Conceicao had grown accustomed. He was a bridesmaid-never-the-bride fighter who won fans but not titles, drawing with Emanuel Navarrete and losing to Shakur Stevenson and Oscar Valdez in battles for the belt.

The role-reversal dynamic and need for improvement the fighters share makes this an intriguing fight. Hopefully the action delivers on the promise that these circumstances show, rather than matches the tepid first encounter.

Robson Conceicao vs O’Shaquie Foster Fight Odds

Conceicao is a 100/30 underdog, reflective of his perceived luck in victory last time out. Foster is 2/9 to win back his belt. The draw is priced at 16/1.

Robson Conceicao vs O’Shaquie Foster Full Card

Robson Conceicao vs. O’Shaquie Foster

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Robson Conceicao vs O’Shaquie Foster Predictions

I think Conceicao repeats the feat here, but without the controversy. I can see the determined ‘Nino’ putting in an improved performance more in line with his best work. Foster hasn’t performed consistently since the Valdez win and I think he might approach this believing the judges will side with him this time no matter what.

I believe this will play into Conceicao’s hands and he will retain his title at odds of 100/30.

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