Rene Calixto vs Willibaldo Garcia Predictions: Can the Mexican super flys top outstanding draw?

Rene Calixto and Willibaldo Garcia look to settle their differences this Friday, May 23 for the vacant IBF super flyweight title. The bout takes place at Gimnasio Marcelino Gonzalez in Zacatecas, Mexico. ESPN Deportes carry the card in America while no UK broadcaster has been secured.

Here are my Rene Calixto vs Willibaldo Garcia predictions ahead of this title clash.

Rene Calixto vs Willibaldo Garcia Odds

Garcia is a 3/4 favourite while Calixto is just behind at 1/1. A repeat of their draw in the first fight is priced at 12/1. Could lightning strike these Mexican super flyweights twice?

Rene Calixto vs Willibaldo Garcia Fight Preview

These two gave us a treat when they met in Shizuoka, Japan last year for this same vacant IBF super flyweight strap. A real fight of the year contender unfolded as Calixto and Garcia fought to a nail-biting split draw. The fact that the three scores read 118-110, 114-114 and 116-112 shows how open to interpretation the action was.

The rematch had looked set for Japan, but it feels appropriate that promotion wrangles have led the countrymen to their home of Mexico to renew hostilities. Calixto and Garcia are actually even more acquainted than that, both hailing from the state of Guerrero.

The first fight will have surprised a few on paper. Garcia was 35 and walked in with five losses on his record, including a 2020 majority defeat to Alexandre Santiago and a split decision the following year against Britain’s Paul Butler.

Calixto came in with the momentum, 23-0 and boxing on a home card for his promoter, former world champion Tomoki Kameda.

But Garcia was not like the other men Calixto had faced. While the 30-year-old had fought a fine level of competition, he had not met someone as experienced, rugged or never-say-die as ‘Sullo’.  

So the heir apparent was taken to the wire by the wily veteran. The rounds largely had the same rhythm. The older man pushing the pace and the action, with the scoring depending on how well you felt Calixto dealt with it. Some rounds he’d eat wide, winging shots to head and body. Others, he would fight fire with fire and push the 35-year-old back with his own salvos. 

It was tough to score all the way and never anything less than thrilling. Garcia came to seize the world belt his career has lacked thus far. Calixto fought to prove the faith in him had not been misplaced and to keep his unbeaten record. The way they teed off on each other in the 11th and 12th made it seem scarcely credible that both fighters were boxing in their first 12-rounder.

A draw seemed fair, but it was truly one of those fights where you wouldn’t have complained either way. The logical outcome was to do it again. Even if one man had been declared the victor, the absorbing action would have made a sequel easy to sell. Who doesn’t want to watch two fighters throw caution to the wind as Calixto and Garcia did with such violent abandon?

I think this fight largely hinges on what the first took out of each man. Can Garcia, after a hard career, summon up the will to press so relentlessly again for 12 rounds? Is Calixto as battle-hardened as his foe, able to take another 36-minute assault in his stride? These two know each other as only two warriors can. Will one adapt with that knowledge? Or are we in for more guns-akimbo warfare?

Rene Calixto vs Willibaldo Garcia Full Card

No further fights are listed by industry sources at this time.

Rene Calixto vs Willibaldo Garcia Prediction

Garcia set an unbelievable pace in the first fight. He also ate a lot of leather in doing so. At 35, with tough fights against former world champions like Butler and Santiago in his rearview, can he summon up the effort it will take to take the IBF super flyweight belt?

I’m not sure. I do think the veteran will make it another night to remember. Calixto must be prepared to get pushed all the way once more. But I believe ‘El Indio’ will find untapped reserves of energy and grit to take the win. I’m going for Calixto to win at 1/1.

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