Paul vs Tyson Odds: ‘Iron’ Mike is the underdog

Jake Paul will face one of the greatest heavyweights of all time on Friday, November 15 when he takes on ‘Iron’ Mike Tyson. The fight will be a fully-sanctioned professional contest that will appear on both men’s official records. Paul-Tyson will take place over eight, two-minute rounds. 

AT & T Stadium in Arlington, Texas will host the card, with Netflix making their boxing debut as a broadcaster.

A couple of months ahead of the big fight, we take an early look at the odds while previewing the bout.

Paul is a YouTube influencer who has never beaten a genuine, active professional boxer. Tyson is a 58-year-old man recovering from a stomach ulcer. All logic dictates that this fight shouldn’t be happening. And if it does have to take place, there is no way in the world it should be headlining the card above Katie Taylor’s rematch with Amanda Serrano. 

But Paul is a safe pay-per-view draw, hitting the mid-to-high hundred-thousands for most of his bouts. Tyson competed in all three of the highest-drawing heavyweight PPVs of all time. His exhibition with Roy Jones Jr. in 2020 is also the tenth-biggest pay-per-view in boxing history.

The latter stat is the most pertinent here. In 2020, Tyson was 54 and had been retired from the ring for 15 years. It is proof that people will tune in to see this version of Mike. But this event feels a world away from the good-intentioned Jones exhibition.

That event was a light at the end of the tunnel for the boxing-starved, COVID-era masses. Mike and Roy demonstrated their skills without any bad blood or manufactured enmity. Both men were close in age, preventing a mismatch. It proved a fun reminder of how much each man had given the sport in their far-off primes.

But an unofficial contest with a fellow veteran is a world away from fighting a 28-year-old active fighter. Whatever you think of Paul’s level of competition, ‘The Problem Child’ has still been competing regularly and his skills, such as they are, will be sharp.

Paul could fight until he is 50 and not touch even a tenth of ‘Iron’ Mike’s accomplishments. But he does not need to match championship belts with the former undisputed heavyweight champion. The influencer just needs to have enough to out-box a man who is 19 years removed from his last professional round. 

Is the task facing Paul really any different from some of his recent wins? In December he beat Andre August, a club fighter who had fought once in four years. Then in March it was Ryan Bourland, another nowhere man who had fought once in six years. 

Tyson is obviously a higher class of rusty ex-pro. If his training videos are anything to go by, he can still land a hook that could demolish a skyscraper from the ground up. But how will his instincts and timing be? It’s one thing hitting a pad, it’s quite another hitting someone 30 years younger than you, who has boxed nine times since your last appearance in a ring.

In a fun piece of symmetry, Paul was on the undercard for that exhibition with Jones. Perhaps it was at that moment that ‘The Problem Child’ realised it is not necessarily the world class credentials of a fighter that sells a fight, but the narrative and glamour. 

Why else would you target a man who had to leave a plane recently due to a stomach ulcer flare-up? Well, because that is not the opponent being sold to viewers. 

In Paul’s world of hype, he is facing the ‘Iron’ Mike Tyson we all grew up with. The firestorm of power and pain. The phenom that left Larry Holmes, Michael Spinks and Trevor Berbick twitching and broken in his wake. 

But that isn’t the Mike you’ll get. The Tyson that turns up in November, at best, will be the version we saw put on an entertaining, at times leisurely, performance against Jones four years ago. At worst, it will be that version blunted by further age and illness. 

Can Tyson land one shot that would derail the Paul express, humbling the cocksure boxing-tourist once and for all? Undoubtedly. But for all his accolades, his greatness, his indelible imprint on boxing; we’re talking about Tyson having a puncher’s chance here and nothing more. 

This is ultimately a cynical cash grab of a fight. Neither man needs it for any reasons beyond the financial. If Tyson wins, knocking out Jake Paul will not supersede the undisputed titles and cultural zeitgeist-domination of his prime. If Paul wins, the scalp of a pensionable former fighter will not enhance a reputation built on fighting retired UFC fighters or boxing’s never-weres. 

If Paul wanted money and a challenge, he could fight KSI. If he wanted an attention-grabbing pay-per-view occasion, he could fight his brother Logan. Even a bout with Floyd Mayweather, 47 years old but fresh from his active second career in the exhibition world, would appeal more than this.

If Mike is desperate to glove up again, surely it should be a peer on the receiving end? A move-around with Lennox Lewis or Evander Holyfield would draw viewers without the potentially-frightening age gap. Tyson would have destroyed Paul in his prime, but his desperation to prove that could prove fatal.

Paul vs Tyson Fight Odds

Paul opens as a 2/5 favourite to beat Tyson. Imagine reading that sentence five years ago. ‘Iron’ Mike is 13/5 to turn back the clock with a win. A draw between the two men is priced at 8/1.

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You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.