Padley vs Bellotti Predictions: British boxing’s Cinderella men do that dance

Popular lightweight Josh Padley gets a tricky domestic test this Saturday, October 11 against Reece Bellotti. This intriguing bout takes place on the undercard of Dave Allen’s heavyweight leap of faith against big-punching Arslanbek Makhmudov. DAZN will screen the action live from the Sheffield Arena.

Read on for my Padley vs Bellotti predictions ahead of this lightweight scrap.

Padley vs Bellotti Odds

Padley comes in as a strong 1/4 favourite, owing to strong recent performances. Bellotti is 7/2, but he has eaten longer odds than that alive in the past. The draw is priced at 12/1.

Padley vs Bellotti Fight Preview

In many ways, neither of these fighters were meant to be here. Both Padley and Bellotti have fought their way to the forefront from differing obscurities. One put bravery above all else. The other got back up when everyone expected them to stay down.

Padley must be sick of hearing his Cinderella story by now, but assuming he is too busy in his final preparations to read this, it bears retelling. An electrician by day, Padley was coming off a quality win at Wembley Stadium on the undercard of Anthony Joshua’s loss to Daniel Dubois. That victory promised much, an excellent performance to hand world-ranked Mark Chamberlain his first loss. Then he got the call that would change his life.

WBC lightweight champion Shakur Stevenson needed an opponent, with challenger Floyd Schofield having pulled out through injury. Padley downed tools, picked up his gloves and flew out to Saudi Arabia. Despite being stopped in nine rounds, the part-time boxer amazed fans and his opponent with a spirited display on less than a weeks’ notice. A star was born in Saudi that night.

But an unlikely title shot and a wave of goodwill only get you so far. Padley had proven he could lose with honour. Now it was time to get back to the job of winning with style. A full-time contract with Matchroom meant Padley could depart the day job and dedicate himself to the fistic craft.

That focus paid off when Padley dismantled unbeaten Marko Cvetanovic in five rounds back in April. Now he gets another opportunity to impress, against one of the more remarkable domestic fighters of recent years.

Bellotti has been written-off so often that his doubters have run out of ink. But the ‘Bomber’ always bounces back. 

Few would have predicted his path, but Bellotti was tipped for success when he turned over as a two-weight ABA champion as an amateur. He won his first 12 outings, clinching the Commonwealth featherweight crown against the quality Jason Cunningham in his 11th fight.

Ryan Doyle upset the champion in his second defence and, with a six-round warm-up in between, British champion Ryan Walsh edged Bellotti via split decision for that title. After another successful six-rounder, ‘Bomber’ embarked on the worst run of his career.

Consecutive losses to Francesco Grandelli, Jordan Gill and Raymond Ford pegged Bellotti as yesterday’s man. On reflection, losing to a future world champion in Ford and Gill, who scored a stunning knockout upset over Michael Conlan, is not horrendous form. But stack any three losses together in boxing and the vultures circle. 

But despite the perception of Bellotti as a gatekeeper, the Watford puncher refused to play along. He won his next six fights, wreaking upsets over Commonwealth super featherweight king Aqib Fiaz and British boss Liam Dillon to take home their belts. Youssef Khoumari, Dean Dodge, Levi Giles and Michael Gomez Jr. were the other opponents beaten during a career-revitalising run of victories. Bellotti was not just back. He was better than at any other point in his professional career.

All good things must come to an end. Bellotti’s take-on-everyone brilliance put him in the ring opposite European champion Ryan Garner. A 12th-round TKO settled a fiercely-competitive bout. Garner pulled away over the second half of the fight before settling things a shade inside the championship distance. But, as always, Bellotti had much to be proud of.

At 34 years of age, Bellotti might well be mobilising for one final run. ‘Piranha’ Garner is the WBC number-five and may well vacate his trio of titles to pursue the big green belt soon. The winner of Saturday’s clash would likely be in the conversation to fill one of those vacancies. 

Equally, Padley is the WBA number-six in his own right. Perhaps the victor will make their own assault on a portion of the world crown? Plenty on the line in this lightweight fight. This might just steal the show on Saturday night.

Padley vs Bellotti Full Card

David Allen vs Arslanbek Makhmudov

Josh Padley vs  Reece Bellotti

Junaid Bostan vs Bilal Fawaz

Hamza Uddin vs Muhsin Kizota

Ibraheem Sulaimaan vs James Chereji

Conner Tudsbury vs TBA

Joe Howarth vs Kane Baker

Leo Atang vs TBA

Padley vs Bellotti Predictions

If you’re looking at most common metrics, Padley is the favourite for a good reason here. He’s five years younger, won his last fight, has performed fairly well against a world champion, is fresher and is considered to be on the rise. Conversely, some feel Bellotti’s brave loss to Garner is a sign of decline at 34. 

I would not be so sure, but I am still picking Padley. I think Bellotti has a few more surprises to spring on British boxing. Do not be surprised to see him add to a swelling mantle of major domestic titles before ‘Bomber’ hangs up the gloves.

But Padley is a compelling pick. He learned the right lessons from Stevenson and beat Chamberlain when the latter was on the verge of a world title opportunity. Cventanovic was dealt with using consummate precision. Padley seems to have benefitted from full-time training physically and mentally. I’m picking ‘Paddy’ on points at 4/6.

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