Oscar Duarte vs Batyr Akhmedov Predictions: Late replacement carries great risk

Oscar Duarte squares off with Batyr Akhmedov this Saturday, November 16 at The Venue in  Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The bout takes place on the undercard of a cruiserweight title unification Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez vs Chris Billam-Smith. DAZN will broadcast the event live.

Here are my Duarte vs Akhmedov predictions ahead of this intriguing lightweight clash.

Duarte lost by knockout to Ryan Garcia in 2023. Our man found ‘KingRy’ in a vengeful mood, having just lost himself to Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis in a huge-money fight. Duarte disputed the stoppage, but then don’t they all. It looked fine to me and most others who witnessed the beating.

Garcia did struggle to a degree in the early going, with Duarte using all manner of dark arts to keep himself in the fight. Perhaps inspired by playing rebound to Ryan, Duarte himself bounced back from defeat in his last outing. ‘La Migrana’ became the first man to knock out former world champion Joseph Diaz Jr. ‘JoJo’ has been losing a lot of fights lately, but the fact Duarte took him out was impressive nonetheless.

Originally, Duarte’s journey was to continue this Saturday against Kenneth Sims Jr. But ‘Bossman’ pulled out with two weeks to go, citing a knee injury picked up during training. Akhmedov is a fine replacement on such short notice, demonstrating the pull of the Riyadh Season organisation.

Akhmedov’s 10-3 record is not enough on paper to strike fear in the hearts of his opponents. But the three men who beat him have all been deemed fortunate to have done so in the eyes of many. Mario Barrios, Alberto Puello and the man he’s replacing, Sims, have each beaten him on points. But every fight was close and in the cases of Barrios and Puello in particular, the majority of fans felt he’d done enough to win.

The Barrios and Puello fights were each for the WBA championship, meaning a victory in either would have seriously changed the trajectory of Akhmedov’s career. Had he won the title, the Russian certainly wouldn’t be getting drafted into fights on two weeks notice like he is here.

That element of surprise can often go either way. It can affect either fighter in different ways. Will Akhmedov be underprepared? Or will the shift in challenge disrupt Duarte? It is an interesting wrinkle in a fight that already justifies its billing. 

Despite its nature as a late replacement fight, this is still a battle of two world-ranked contenders. The combination of a big stage, high stakes and two fighters with something to prove could make this quite the spectacle on Saturday night.

Duarte vs Akhmedov Fight Odds

Duarte is 20/21 to win here while his opponent isn’t far behind at 5/6. The draw is priced at 14/1.

Duarte vs Akhmedov Full Card

Gilberto Ramirez vs. Chris Billam-Smith

Jose Carlos Ramirez vs. Arnold Barbosa Jr

Oscar Collazo vs. Thammanoon Niyomtrong

Wiliam Zepeda Segura vs. Tevin Farmer

Oscar Duarte Jurado vs. Botirzhon Akhmedov

Ziyad Almaayouf vs. Juan Garcia

Duarte vs Akhmedov Full Card

I think Akhmedov is finally going to get the result to match his performance in a big fight. One of the unluckiest fighters on the planet, it is about time he got his flowers. Look for the late replacement to secure the victory here at 5/6.