Ortiz Jr vs Lubin Predictions: ‘The Texas Machine’ faces perennial challenger

WBC interim super welterweight champion Vergil Ortiz Jr defends his title this Saturday, November 8 against Erickson Lubin. The bout headlines at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. DAZN will screen the card live on their platform.

Here are my Ortiz Jr vs Lubin predictions ahead of this super-welter showdown.

Ortiz Jr vs Lubin Odds

Ortiz is touted as boxing's next big thing in some quarters, which explains his 1/11 price. Lubin is a quality contender, but his lack of success in two previous title fights is the reasoning behind a 13/2 outsider price. The draw is up at 25/1.

Ortiz Jr vs Lubin Fight Preview

This is hardly breaking news but boxing’s sanctioning bodies are not always the best at chronicling the best in the sport. While WBC super welterweight champion Sebastian Fundora is a fine champion, his interim counterpart Ortiz is widely more well-regarded.

While their 154-pound title is currently vacant, The Ring has Ortiz as their number-one ranked super-welter. BoxRec and the Transnational Boxing Ratings Board have him third. The WBC interim title may not be a full world title, but by almost any measure Ortiz is as good as a champion.

Lubin has contested versions of world belts on two occasions and those opulent layers of leather and gold have been something of a Kryptonite for the 30-year-old. Back in 2017, Jermell Charlo walloped him in one brutal round of a WBC title attempt. A fine rebuild followed before Fundora and Lubin waged war for the WBC interim title three years later.

Lubin must have felt the gold around his waist as he knocked Fundora down in round seven, having climbed off the canvas himself. But any turning tide rolled back in kind as Lubin was rescued by his corner after the ninth round, following the suffering of some brutal facial damage.

These are the only defeats on Lubin’s record, which is otherwise highly creditable. ‘The Hammer’ holds wins over former world champion Jeison Rosario, title challenger Terrell Gausha and Abel Ramos, who is now the WBC number-five up at middleweight. Is there a mental block when world (or interim) honours are on the line?

If there is a problem in Lubin’s makeup, Ortiz will find it. ‘The Texas Machine’ rode into the big time on the back of his knockout power. Thomas Dulorme, Maurice Hooker, Egidijus Kavaliauskas and Michael McKinson were among those caught underneath his concussive shots.

But we have seen a different side to Ortiz in his last two outings. Ukrainian hard-case Serhii Bohachuk had him on the deck twice in Vegas last year. But Ortiz got up, dusted himself off and took the WBC interim gong on points. Some shouted ‘robbery’, as is often the case in a close fight these days. But a firm argument could be done that Ortiz had done just about enough to walk out with his unbeaten record unscathed.

Rather than shy away from another hard night on the job, Ortiz then took on Israil Madrimov. The former WBA champion gave Terence Crawford arguably his toughest test when they fought last year. But in a fiercely competitive bout, Ortiz emerged with his interim belt intact and as the best in his division in the eyes of some.

That question is still to be answered definitively. The arrival of Jaron ‘Boots’ Ennis at 154lbs certainly shakes up the weight class. The former IBF welterweight champion certainly shakes up super welterweight. It is a fight firmly on the radar of both men. 

Matchroom Boxing CEO Frank Smith, whose company handles ‘Boots’,  told me last month, “(Ennis) wants all the biggest fights… the Vergil Ortiz fight, it’s not for a belt, but that’s a massive fight at 154”.

Big nights against fighters like ‘Boots’ Ennis disintegrate if Ortiz does not hold his nerve against Lubin. This is a man who has a decade at world level under his belt, even if that belt has never been swapped for a championship one. Ortiz needs to make sure his opponent has no reason to switch his waist wear after this Saturday.

Ortiz Jr vs Lubin Full Card

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Ortiz Jr vs Lubin Prediction

Lubin has never won in these circumstances. Ortiz has never lost at all. Can it really be that simple?

In my view, yes it can. I think Ortiz is on the level of the two previous champions to beat Lubin in title fights. The power that ‘The Texas Machine’ wields will be a major problem here. Madrimov and Bohachuk were durable. Lubin doesn’t hang in there in the same way. I’m taking Ortiz by knockout at 8/13.

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