Nelson vs Santana Predictions: Crawford’s big-punching pal rebounds from maiden defeat

Steven Nelson takes on Raiko Santana on Saturday, September 13 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The super middleweight scrap takes place on the undercard of Saul Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford. YouTube will carry the fight among the prelims, while the main card takes place on Netflix.

Here are my Nelson vs Santana predictions.

Nelson vs Santana Odds

Nelson is priced as the favourite, with 2/5 his odds of victory. The underdog is Santana at 23/10. The draw is priced at 12/1.

Nelson vs Santana Fight Preview

Nelson’s then-unbeaten record was mined for parts in his last bout. At the age of 36, an assignment against 23-year-old, world-ranked phenom Diego Pacheco was only designed to benefit one man. The starlet did the business, winning a unanimous decision. But Nelson’s barrage in the last two rounds nearly upset the lucrative applecart. ‘So Cold’ nearly put the rise of Pacheco on ice.

It would be dishonest to allege that it was just a spirited six-minutes against Pacheco that have landed Nelson a slot on this big event. He is a long-time friend and stablemate of headliner Crawford. Sometimes in boxing it is as much about who you know as it is what you know.

But Nelson is a decent fighter and he had to wait a long time for the opportunity to have a big name in the opposite corner. Pacheco got the better of him, but there will always be a lingering thought that Nelson could have done more with his career if he started sooner. 

Nelson is now 37 years old and he only turned pro nine years ago. 27 is practically pensionable age for a novice pro. Canelo might be an extreme example, but the Mexican’s record boasted 51 fights and four world titles spread across two weights. Not everyone is Canelo, but even Nelson’s opponent on Saturday was two years into his professional journey by 27. 

But enough about what Nelson hasn’t done and a bit about what he can do. The super middleweight is a power puncher, knocking out 16 of his 20 beaten foes. Pacheco was the first fighter to take him 12 rounds, while Rowdy Legend Montgomery, owner of the greatest name in any sport in my opinion, extended Nelson to 10 two years ago. His other distance-fights were all six rounds or under.

But Santana is no stranger to survival when under pressure. He is one of just three men to go the distance Guatemalan knockout artist Lester Martinez, who fights Christian Mbilli on the undercard. Santana also upset Joseph George, a puncher from Texas who was 12-0 and heavily favoured to beat him. 

Santana does carry danger, but at 13-4 he does wield it selectively. All those losses went the distance though, and a narrow recent win over Lorenzo Simpson was a good one. As an afternoon fight to whet the whistle ahead of history, this bout has a lot to recommend it. Not least the fact that with Nelson aged 37 and Santana a year younger; this could be one last chance to progress for a pair of boxing nearly-men.

Nelson vs Santana Full Card

Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford

Callum Walsh vs Fernando Vargas Jr.

Christian Mbilli vs Lester Martinez

Mohammed Alakel vs John Ornelas

Serhii Bohachuk vs Brandon Adams

Ivan Dychko vs Jermaine Franklin Jr.

Reito Tsutsumi vs Javier Martinez

Sultan Almohamed vs Martin Caraballo

Steven Nelson vs Raiko Santana

Marco Verde vs Marcos Osorio-Betancourt

Nelson vs Santana Prediction

Nelson is the more polished of the pair. His knockout ratio is 80% to Santana’s 50%. His class of opponent has been more accomplished. Everything points towards a win for the Nebraska man. I like him to do it early. I’ll take Nelson by knockout at 13/5.

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