Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim Predictions: ‘The Monster’ will dominate late replacement

Undisputed super bantamweight Naoya Inoue takes on step-in challenger Ye Joon Kim this Friday, January 24. The four-belt bout takes place at Ariake Arena in Tokyo. Sky Sports + will broadcast the event live.

Here are my Inoue vs Kim predictions ahead of this troubled title match.

Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim Odds

We aren’t taking money on Inoue purely to win due to his overwhelming status as a prohibitive favourite. There are a wide range of outcome markets you can bet on 'The Monster' in, which we shall come onto. You can back Kim to pull off one of boxing’s biggest-ever upsets at 18/1. A draw is priced at 28/1.

Fight Preview

Inoue was initially set to defend his gold against IBF and WBO mandatory Sam Goodman on Christmas Eve. A serious cut to the challenger during sparring saw the bout moved to this date, but an aggravation of the injury meant Goodman withdrew.

It is understandable that Inoue and his team wanted to preserve the date that he had been training so long for. But Kim is astoundingly under-equipped for this task. He is ranked 11th by the WBO, which allowed this troubling match-up to be made. But there is nothing on his record to suggest Kim can last long in this bout.

The man who calls himself ‘Pacquiweather’ has displayed neither the otherworldly defensive acumen of Floyd Mayweather nor the whirlwind attack of Manny Pacquiao across his 25 professional bouts. 

Kim dropped a majority decision over eight rounds to 14-9 American Rob Diezel in 2023. He has rebounded with two wins since, including picking up the WBO Oriental title. He is also a former IBF Asia champion. At domestic level, Kim is a decent operator. But Inoue exists on another plain entirely.

Kim isn’t just having his first fight with a world class opponent. The 32-year-old is going in there with arguably the best fighter on the planet. Ask anyone in the industry for their pound-for-pound number one and they’ll name either Terence Crawford, Oleksandr Usyk or Inoue. For what it’s worth, your author believes the latter to be the greatest boxer in the world today.

Inoue hasn’t been taken the distance since 2019. In the time since, he has knocked out nine men, six of which were former or reigning world champions across two weights. ‘Kaibutsu’ has become undisputed champion at both bantamweight and super bantamweight during that period. Along with Usyk and Crawford, he is the only other man in history to become two-weight undisputed champion in the four-belt era.

‘The Monster’ displays rare blemishes in his armour. Luis Nery knocked him down for the first time in his career two fights ago. So Inoue rose from the mat and starched him in six rounds. The legendary Nonito Donaire took him the distance in 2019’s Fight of the Year, pushing the Japanese superstar to the limit in a thriller. So Inoue blasted him out in two rounds in the rematch. Adversity only seems to make this man more formidable.

Which sows the lonely seed of doubt for this unusual fight. With Kim having as much chance of winning this fight as Andrew Tate does of growing a mullet, is complacency a risk for Inoue? Nery and Donaire tested him in their way. Stephen Fulton was a reigning champion and an idiosyncratic puzzle of a fighter, before Inoue stopped him in eight. Marlon Tapales brought two belts and a win over the excellent Murodjon Akhmadaliev to the party before succumbing in 10 rounds. 

But Kim is a fair-to-middling regional fighter that lacks the world title experience or history of big fights that Inoue-opponents usually boast. He isn’t a Hall of Fame lock like Donaire or a fearsome puncher like Nery. He’s a guy who has lost two fights, drawn two others and never faced anyone with even half the record Inoue has.

Will Inoue, the ultimate big-match competitor, be able to motivate himself for this meagre challenge? Only time will tell. But in the city in which James ‘Buster’ Douglas changed the trajectory of heavyweight boxing forever, a Hail Mary puncher’s chance is about all I can give Kim in this unusual bout.

Inoue vs Kim Full Card

Naoya Inoue  vs.  Ye Joon Kim 

Jin Sasaki  vs.  Shoki Sakai 

Goki Kobayashi  vs.  Yuni Takada

T. Shimomachi  vs.  Misaki Hirano

Tsubasa Narai  vs.  Kai Watanabe

Inoue vs Kim Prediction

There is no point beating around the bush here. Inoue. Early.

I like ‘The Monster’ in rounds 1-3 here. I think this will be his quickest win since Donaire in 2022. You can back my selection at odds of 6/5. Just make sure you don’t get up to make a brew when the fight starts.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.