Naoya Inoue vs TJ Doheny Predictions: ‘Monster’ in the middle rounds

Undisputed super bantamweight champion of the world Naoya Inoue faces TJ Doheny this Tuesday, September 3. This blockbuster collision will take place at the Ariake Arena in Tokyo. Sky Sports + will televise the bout, with the card starting at 07:30am UK time.

Here are my Inoue vs Doheny predictions ahead of this super bantamweight thriller.

They call him ‘Kaibutsu’ for a reason. Translated as ‘Monster’, there is perhaps no better word to describe Inoue. 27 wins. 24 knockouts. The only four-belt super bantamweight champion in history. One of only three men in history to reign as undisputed champion at two weights in the four-belt era. World titles in four weight classes. 

The cold, hard facts prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that Inoue is one of the preeminent talents of his generation.

But put aside the number-crunching and watch the man fight. Concentrate less on Inoue’s record and more on how he achieved it. The speed, the acumen, the power. My god, the power. 

Oleksandr Usyk and Terence Crawford are touted alongside him as candidates for the pound-for-pound title. But I personally find Inoue’s mastery of every single facet of the game belongs in a class of its own. 

Inoue fights are an event from bell to bell. Japan worships their fistic deity, turning out in their droves to welcome him during his ostentatious entrances. The way the frills give way to no-nonsense thrills makes the chest pound. ‘Kaibutsu’ is a happening every time he steps through the ropes.

Doheny is the latest volunteer to step into the maelstrom. It is hard to ascertain whether he will take confidence or further fear from what afflicted Inoue last time out. The unbeatable champion was knocked down by Luis Nery in May. Does Doheny take heart that the ‘Monster’ can be hurt? Or does he shudder, knowing that Inoue put the mother of all whoopings on Nery for having the sheer gall to drop him?

Doheny is not unaccustomed to answering difficult questions. The Australia-based Irishman is a former world champion, after all. Doheny defeated Ryosuke Iwasa to win the IBF super bantamweight strap back in 2018. After a successful defence against Ryohei Takahashi, he lost the belt in a unification with WBA kingpin Daniel Roman. 

That majority decision loss was a Fight of the Year candidate and extremely close. But Doheny never got another bite of the cherry and his career declined. Three losses followed in his next three fights, albeit at the top level. Ionut Baluta, Michael Conlan and Sam Goodman all outpointed ‘The Power’. Doheny is yet to be stopped in his professional career.

TJ is riding a three-fight winning streak into this bout, including a first-round knockout to hand Japhethlee Llamido his first career loss. But one wonders if he is still the fighter that captured that world title six years ago. Doheny’s recent wins have come at a slightly lower level, even though his performances have largely impressed. 

The Irishman will need to be at his best when it comes to facing Inoue. This is a fighter that feasts on insecurity and exposes weakness like dressings torn from a fresh wound. A relentless powerhouse who has total command over every aspect of the sport. Inoue can box you into comfort before lowering the boom. Or he can decide to wreak havoc and blow you away. From round one to round 12, this man is dangerous.

Inoue vs Doheny Fight Odds

The mountainous task that awaits Doheny is writ large in the markets. Inoue is 1/100 to win this fight while ‘The Power’ is 16/1 to get it done. The draw is priced at 33/1. Given the punch power of both men, I wouldn’t bother with the latter.

Inoue vs Doheny Full Card

Naoya Inoue vs. TJ Doheny; IBF, WBA, WBC and WBO super bantamweight titles 

Ismael Barroso vs. Andy Hiraoka; WBA interim super lightweight title

Yoshiki Takei vs. Daigo Higa; WBO bantamweight title 

Jin Sasaki vs. Qamil Balla; Welterweight 

Toshiki Shimomachi vs. Ryuya Tsugawa; Super-bantamweight

Inoue vs Doheny Prediction

I won’t be making any waves here. I think Inoue wins this fight by knockout. But that prediction only nets you 1/16 in the markets. So let’s dig deeper.

Doheny has never been stopped, but I also don’t think he is equipped to hold off Inoue for 12 rounds. ‘The Power’ seems to be on the slide while ‘Kaibutsu’ marches on relentlessly. Therefore, I feel the Japanese fighter will pull this one off inside the distance.

I like rounds 4-6 here for the finish. Inoue will size up his man early on, finding range. Once the ‘Monster’ is locked in, expect the heavy punches to fly. Doheny won’t come back from that. I’m going for Inoue in rounds 4-6 at 17/10.

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