Mielnicki Jr vs Nmomah Predictions: Middleweight melee for Mielnicki

WBO sixth-ranked middleweight Vito Mielnicki Jr takes on undefeated Samuel Nmomah this Saturday, November 22 at the ANB Arena in Riyadh. The fight features on the undercard card for Ring IV: Night of Champions live on DAZN pay-per-view. The event features four major world title fights as the likes of David Benavidez, Jesse Rodriguez and Brian Norman Jr defend their crowns.

Read on for my Mielnicki vs Nmomah prediction.

Mielnicki Jr vs Nmomah Odds

Mielnicki is the firm favourite here at 2/9. Nmomah is priced at 18/5. The draw is on the market at 14/1.

Mielnicki Jr vs Nmomah Fight Preview

Mielnicki has been marketed well in his 22-fight pro career. Plenty of fighters with better resumes find themselves further down the rankings than ‘White Magic’. Admittedly, the four-time junior Golden Gloves champion is still only 23. But the youngster needs a standout win on his resume before he can seriously threaten the 160-pound belt-holders. 

On paper, the opposition is improving. Recent opponent Kamil Gardzielik came in at 19-0 while Connor Coyle was 21-0 when he met Mielnicki in February. But Gardzielik had just four knockouts on his record while Coyle, the only live dog Mielnicki has entertained, took the youngster to a majority draw. But Coyle failed a post-fight drug test and the result was overturned to a No Contest.

Vito was cruelly denied the chance to test his chances against a tough opponent in a fair and sporting contest. That is no fault of his own. Neither is his level of competition. A boxer can only fight the opponents put in front of him. But if fans expected the starlet’s move from Top Rank to Zuffa Boxing to bring about a new era of tricky opposition and steel sharpening steel, think again.

Last time it was the light-hitting Pole with the 21% knockout ratio. Saturday’s foe, Nigeria’s Nmomah boasts a 23% finishing rate. This is the third time in succession that Vito has been matched with a fighter who has knocked out less than a quarter of their defeated opponents. You have to go back five years to find Mielnicki fighting anyone with a 70% or above KO percentage. 

Is there something we do not know about the Mielnicki chin? If there is, Nmomah is unlikely to find it. The 28-year-old lives in Italy, where he fills his time fighting opponents who aren’t even European level. His work is patient and schooled. Everything is done correctly. Tight guard. Studious without being over-cautious. Willing to let rip when it makes sense, but always with form and function treated as paramount. If he was doing it to better opponents, there would be something quite impressive about Nmomah. 

He has a chance to do just that. Mielnicki might have been moved with kid gloves but he is certainly a cut above anything Nmomah has encountered. Having learned from early slip-ups, including a loss on points to James ‘Not The Chef’ Martin, his work is growing in competence as he grows in confidence. 

The body jab Mielnicki throws is a rangy and well-rounded weapon. The six-footer is starting to throw more cleanly, with his early fights marked by a tendency to smother his work. 

What remains to be seen is whether the power that saw YouTube highlight-vids rack up views in his early career can be used to finish a fighter with any sort of pedigree. Mielnicki is without a knockout for two years which is, not coincidentally, the point where his level of competition tangibly improved.

Mielnicki is at an age where you absorb lessons quickly and implement them seamlessly. A card featuring Messrs Benavidez, Norman, Devin Haney and dear old ‘Bam’ is the perfect field trip for the Jersey boy. But Mielnicki needs to make sure he’s taking in those lessons with a win under his belt.

Mielnicki Jr vs Nmomah Full Card

David Benavidez vs Anthony Yarde

Sam Noakes vs Abdullah Mason

Jesse Rodriguez vs Fernando Martinez

Brian Norman Jr vs Devin Haney

Vito Mielnicki Jr vs Samuel Nmomah

Mohammed Alakel vs Jiaming Li

Julio Porras Ruiz vs Pius Mpenda

Sultan Almohammed vs Umesh Chavan

Mielnicki Jr vs Nmomah Prediction

Nmomah knows what he’s doing in there. The Nigerian is defensively sound if not impenetrable and his punches, while not concussive, are at least a technically-administered nuisance. Mielnicki will have to think his way through this one.

I’m not overly convinced by ‘White Magic’ just yet and anything short of a highlight-reel knockout against Nmomah will not change that view. I think Vito wins here, but the points win I’m predicting (8/11) is unlikely to dazzle.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.