Masaev vs Mbenge Predictions: IBO belt beckons for the Hollywood Russian

Hollywood-based Russian Vadim Musaev challenges IBO welterweight champion Tulani Mbenge this Friday, December 12. The bout takes place at the Duty Free Tennis Arena in Dubai on a card headlined by Kubrat Pulev vs Murat Gassiev. YouTube will show the event live on the IBA Boxing channel.

Read on for my Musaev vs Mbenge predictions.

Musaev vs Mbenge Odds

Musaev is favoured to walk out as the winner at 4/6. Mbenge is great value at 7/5. If you can't split them, it's 14/1 for the draw.

Musaev vs Mbenge Fight Preview

Musaev is a decorated amateur who boats World Championship silver among his accomplishments in the unpaid code. Like Bakhodur Usmonov, another amateur standout who faces Maxi Hughes on the undercard, Musaev is taking the biggest fight of his career on Friday night.

Mbenge is a proper opponent for the prospect. The IBO belt might not be a genuine world title, but it is the best of the rest. They don’t give that title out for free and Mbenge is on his second reign as champion.

The first came in 2018, when Mbenge beat former WBA interim champion Diego Gabriel Chaves via unanimous decision. A close points loss to Sebastian Formella in Germany ended that reign.

Mbenge secured his second IBO gong with an away win against Michael McKinson at the Copper Box in London. Surviving an early scare, the South African roared back to outpoint his man and go home with the title.

Mbenge is on a three-fight winning streak since suffering his second career defeat, in another tight points defeat. Soulemayne Cissokho was his conqueror on that occasion. Not a terrible result given the fact that the Frenchman is undefeated and ranked number-two by the WBC.

So Musaev goes in with a foe who only loses at world level. If the Russian southpaw wants to reach that level, he must come through this tricky test in Dubai.

Musaev’s official record is 11-0 with eight knockouts. As is customary for most amateur stars after turning over, these early fights have come against opposition of poor-to-middling quality. Nothing wrong with that after 11 outings. Lessons can be learned from these veteran gatekeepers of the ring. Now Musaev must put those tricks of the trade into practice.

There is the thorny issue of one ‘IBA Pro’ defeat on Musaev’s record. The IBA runs bouts under this moniker that are essentially professional fights, but are not recognised on a boxer’s official record. The company says this allows them to promote quality match-ups with fighters who do not have to risk a defeat. 

I called it self-defeating in another piece and I stand by that. Musaev lost on points after six rounds against Uzbekistan’s Khavasbek Asadullaev. The victor was disqualified after winning gold at the Asian Championships, when a video review revealed he had bitten his opponent. I guess even the next generation wants to be like Mike.

This is a nice piece of matchmaking. Interestingly, Musaev is only two years younger than Mbenge. But in fistic terms, the experience levels are very different. Can Musaev adjust? Can Mbenge watch the throne? This, my friends, is why we have the fights.

Musaev vs Mbenge Full Card

Kubrat Pulev vs Murat Gassiev

Bakhodur Usmonov vs Maxi Hughes

Vadim Musaev vs Tulani Mbenge

Khariton Agrba vs Ruben Nestor Neri Munoz

Faizan Anwar vs Khuseyn Baysangurov

Dave Penalosa vs Daud Alaev

Yoel Finol vs Shakhobidin Zoirov

Stanley Wright vs Artem Suslenkov

Samuel Carmona vs Immanuel Josef

Estelle Mossely vs Ellen Simwaka

Nico Ali Walsh vs Jeremiah Sserwadda

David Dzukaev vs Madiyar Saydrakhimov

Musaev vs Mbenge Prediction

Musaev answered a lot of questions in his last fight against Jose Miguel Borrego. The unofficial Asadullaev defeat looked to expose a weakness at handling pressure fighters. Borrego potentially had all the tools to turn that gap in Musaev’s skillset into a chasm.

Borrego was a game opponent with an incredible engine. The Mexican had never been stopped and did not stop moving forward all fight long. But Musaev’s stamina, composure and gameplan held up as he took a deserved decision. Lessons learned.

Mbenge offers a slightly different approach. He is primarily a come-forward proposition, but he sets up his work behind a rangy, awkward left jab. If you can get beyond it, the South African sometimes leaves his chin there as a reward. But McKinson will tell you that Mbenge can take a shot even if you do catch him.

I like the look of underdog Mbenge in this one. He is more considered in his work than the pressure fighters Musaev has fought before. There is some silk to cloak the steel, in the form of that potent jab with which Mbenge opens up a foe’s defence. I reckon Mbenge takes this one at 7/5.

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