Jake Paul vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr Odds: The pick of the markets for the boxing bout

Jake Paul takes his toughest test on-paper this Saturday, June 28 against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. The fight takes place at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. DAZN PPV will screen an event that, like it or not, will draw the eyes of the mainstream sporting world.

Read on for a full guide on the odds Betfred are offering for this Stateside showdown.

Despite the gloss of Chavez’s status as a former world champion, Paul is presently a 1/6  favourite to win on the night. Those who have followed the DAZN vignettes may be surprised by this. Chavez has been sold as a going concern in the boxing landscape. A former WBC middleweight champion with plenty in the tank.

I suppose, in contrast to 58-year-old, post-surgery Mike Tyson, Chavez is fresh. But at the age of 39 and without a significant win in a decade, there are certainly questions to be asked. Those doubts account for Chavez coming in at 21/5. 

Chavez was doomed from the start given the fact that his father, Julio Sr., is considered one of the greatest boxers of all-time. While never straying close to the achievements of his paternal shadow, Chavez did okay. 

The Mexican became the first man to beat WBC champion Sebastian Zbik to capture the belt. Peter Manfredo Jr., Andy Lee and Marco Antonio Rubio provided a fine set of defences. Losing the belt to Sergio Martinez was understandable. The Argentine was the greatest middleweight of his era.

But the wheels came off from there. A points win over fringe contender Brian Vera was considered so controversial that Chavez acquiesced to a rematch, which he won via unanimous decision. Andrzej Fonfara upset him by knockout. By the time Chavez lost to Saul Alvarez in 2017, you got the sense it was a fight made only because both were Mexican and Canelo was considered the true heir to Julio Sr.

Crap performances have followed, including a stunning points loss to middle-aged ex-UFC legend Anderson Silva. The wins have been infrequent and, recently, low-level. Every fighter worth his salt has knocked out David Zegarra. He has been stopped 13 times by boxers ranging from world class to novice professionals. Chavez went the 10-round distance with him. In his most recent win, the 39-year-old outpointed UFC relic Uriah Hall, who was having his second pro boxing outing.

The draw is 16/1, the usual long-shot for a rare result. I usually don’t hate that bet in a Jake fight. His contests have often been close and relatively action-light. Those sort of fights can bring about a stalemate. But over 10 rounds, up from his customary eight, I think we’ll get a clear result.

Paul by knockout is priced at 8/5. He does have seven stoppages on his ledger. Back-to-back first-round knockouts over Ryan Bourland and Andre August were supposed to establish his boxing bonafides. But both men were inactive journeymen when Paul got them.

Paul’s other five knockouts came against an influencer, a basketball player and three MMA fighters. ‘El Gallo’ did put Tommy Fury, the best opponent he has faced, on the deck. But the influencer went on to lose on points. While some would call it mercy that Paul did not stop the tattered remains of ‘Iron’ Mike, others would argue he lacks the killer instinct against opponents with even a rudimentary boxing defence.

Paul has never been stopped in his 12 outings. Chavez is 17/2 to become the first man to do it. He hasn’t knocked anyone out since we were all wearing COVID masks. He hasn’t stopped anyone world-rated since ‘Somebody That I Used To Know’ was on the charts. Like Gotye, Chavez has disappeared from relevancy. Unlike the Aussie songster, his contributions have not stood the test of time.

The decision markets are worth a look. Paul on points is 10/11, short-priced but sensible. My pick, that one. Chavez to out-score the YouTube irritant is 12/1. Paul’s chin has never really been tested and I don’t see it happening here. But the boxer to find his form and box his way to a points win? It is not impossible.

A personal favourite is the Fight To Go The Distance market. Yes is 8/13 here while No is priced at 5/4. The business backs my feeling that this one is going all 10 rounds. If you think you can nail the finish to a particular round, we have two markets for you. Round Betting allows you to specify the winner while the Fight End market keeps it to specific rounds without picking a winner. That market also allows you to state whether a fight will end before or after a particular round. Lots of flexibility on offer.

For the above markets, and everything else we offer for Jake Paul vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., you can click here.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.