Joseph Parker vs Martin Bakole Predictions: Replacement fight is a test of toughness

In one of the more astounding reshuffles of recent years, Joseph Parker takes on Martin Bakole this Saturday, February 22. The New Zealander was originally set to face IBF heavyweight champion Daniel Dubois, who withdrew due to illness on Thursday. The re-configured bout will take place at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh. Sky Sports Box Office, TNT Sports Box Office and DAZN PPV will all televise the event.

Here are my Parker vs Bakole predictions ahead of a mouthwatering heavyweight clash.

Joseph Parker vs Martin Bakole Odds

Bakole is your 5/4 underdog for this one, perhaps partially in light of his late-notice call-up. Parker is 4/6 to get this brand new job done. The draw is priced at 16/1.

Joseph Parker vs Martin Bakole Fight Preview

Parker has a reputation as a man who will fight anyone. That much is borne out by his record, on which you will find the majority of this era’s defining heavyweight competitors.

The New Zealander lost his WBO heavyweight belt to Anthony Joshua by decision back in 2018. A loss to Dillian Whyte in an absolute war in his next fight earned Parker some friends, but seemed to derail his title ambitions for good.

A run of six victories, including a brutal pair of fights with Derek Chisora, had Parker threatening to return to the top. But then a ‘Juggernaut’ ran him off the road. Joe Joyce triumphed with a one-punch knockout in the 11th round of their 2022 showdown. It looked like Parker would be a gatekeeper for good.

But Parker rebuilt again. Wins over Jack Massey, Faiga Opelu and Simon Kean restored his confidence. Still, the Auckland man was a huge underdog when his next big fight arrived.

Parker was chosen as the opponent for former WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder’s Saudi debut. It was a fight few fans or experts gave him a chance of winning. But win Parker did, giving Wilder the sort of comprehensive hiding only matched by his treatment at the hands of Tyson Fury in their second fight. He won almost every round on the way to a decision victory.

As seems to be the way with these stacked Riyadh Season cards, a big win earned Parker another marquee bout.  His next opponent, Zhilei Zhang, had just wiped the floor with Joyce in two consecutive fights. The big Brit had only lasted nine rounds of a possible 24 with the Chinese star. Parker, a former Joyce knockout victim, was not expected to stand a chance.

Parker felt that ‘Big Bang’ power, hitting the deck on two occasions. But he spent the rest of their Riyadh 12-rounder outboxing Zhang. It was a superb display against a man who out-sized and out-powered Parker. Our subject deservedly took a majority decision on the cards.

These exploits had earned him a shot at the IBF championship. The Dubois fight had Parker as a very live underdog. Many in the industry, myself included, were tipping the upset for that one. But with Dubois pulling out on Thursday, a replacement was sought.

Step forward, if you can believe it, Martin Bakole. The self-styled “most avoided heavyweight in the world” has a point. Or at least, he did. But Parker avoids no man and he has made a choice no other fighter would. With a guaranteed heavyweight title shot on the horizon when Dubois is fit and well, he has agreed to face a boxer nobody else seems willing to meet.

Bakole is not infallible. Michael Hunter stopped him back in 2018. But since then, the Scotland-based Congolese star has won every fight. He has knocked out the likes of Kevin Johnson, Carlos Takam and, most impressively, Jared Anderson on his way to this opportunity.

Bakole is more than a puncher, though. He also has points wins over Sergey Kuzmin and Tony Yoka that stand out. Now he goes up a level, facing an in-form world star in Parker. For the first time ever, Bakole goes in with someone who has held the heavyweight championship of the world.

This bout is the epitome of fighting spirit. The product of two men who say they’ll fight anyone, proving it on a gigantic stage. Boxing is full of fighters shirking their toughest challenges and finding the path of least resistance. It is easy to do with the litany of ranking belts and other nonsense the sanctioning bodies allow. 

But Parker and Bakole are fighting for little more than to prove they can. That, when you boil it down, is why this sport exists in the first place.

Joseph Parker vs Martin Bakole Full Card

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Joseph Parker vs Martin Bakole Prediction

I had Parker beating Dubois. If these two were both fully-prepared and expecting each other, I think I might tip Bakole here. Consider me a believer in the irrepressible run of form he finds himself in. I think he can take that up through the levels.

But only one of these men has been in camp for this specific event and it is Parker. Here is a man who has been preparing to fight for the sport’s ultimate honour. The New Zealander will have left no stone unturned. I think he takes this one at odds of 4/6.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.