Jorge Castaneda vs Charly Suarez Predictions: Now or never for Charly

World-ranked super featherweight Charly Suarez takes on late replacement Jorge Castaneda this Friday, September 20. Original opponent Andres Cortes pulled out of this fight, which was promoted as a WBO title eliminator. Now Suarez takes on Castaneda on the Jaime Munguia vs Erik Bazinyan undercard at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale Arizona. Sky Sports+ will televise the action live.

Here are my Castaneda vs Suarez predictions ahead of this super featherweight fight.

There has been a paradigm shift for Suarez ahead of this clash. The 17-0 Filipino would have been the underdog going into a fight with Cortes. Now his outlook shifts as he looks to protect his world ranking against a fighter he is expected to beat. Suarez likely won’t complain, but it will be interesting to see the 36-year-old adjust to this very different fight.

Cortes had attained his world ranking by beating quality men like Xavier Martinez, Abraham Nova and Bryan Chevalier. Castaneda has mixed in good company too, but without Cortes’ success.

Castaneda has eaten losses to the middling Randy Moreno, ex-world title challenger Eduardo Hernandez and WBA number-11 Orlando Gonzalez. The Hernandez defeat came via first-round knockout. Castaneda does hold a victory over the then-unbeaten British prospect Youssef Khoumari. He is not a bad opponent considering the short notice, but he is a world away from Cortes.

Suarez’s desired outcome hasn’t changed, but his task has. Many will label this a far easier fight and it is. But the expectations have changed entirely. Now, only a victory will do. Without the dangling carrot of a world title shot at the end of the bout, will Suarez’s motivation be the same?

This is a test in itself. If Suarez cannot get up for this fight, then he holds little hope of ever capturing a belt. At the age of 36, the ‘King’s Warrior’ is already in a race against time to reach the top of his sport. A 2016 Olympian, it took until 2019 for Suarez to turn over. Now the former amateur standout must make his mark as a pro.

Suarez has scored some decent victories. Travelling to Vietnam to knock out Defry Palulu in two rounds was some feat. The Indonesian fighter had not lost for six years going into the bout. Suarez also holds a win over fellow Olympian Paul Fleming, handing the Australian his first loss via 12th-round TKO.

While these are the pick of Suarez’s pro opponents, the Filipino has mixed with some truly elite fighters as an amateur. In 2013, Suarez lost a points decision over five rounds to the legendary Vasiliy Lomachenko. Our subject held his own in the bout even if Lomachenko’s supernatural skills ultimately landed him a deserved decision.

Suarez’s nine knockouts from 17 victories suggest a boxer rather than a banger. But the 36-year-old cuts the ring off and commonly fights on the front foot. The ‘King’s Warrior’ might not come with traditional one-punch power, but his pressure fighting is difficult to counter. 

Castaneda tends to fight on the back foot, looking to create openings using his defence. He will likely welcome the attacking incursions of Suarez, knowing that his own ability to counter depends on them. This is a vintage stylistic match-up. The come-forward pressure fighter meets the distance-creating counter-puncher.

Castaneda vs Suarez Fight Odds

Suarez leads the market here at 1/7. Castaneda is 9/2 to do something he has never done: beat a highly-ranked opponent. A stalemate between these super featherweights is 16/1.

Castaneda vs Suarez Full Card

Jaime Munguia vs. Erik Bazinyan 

Jorge Castaneda vs. Charly Suarez 

Emiliano Vargas vs. Larry Fryers 

Richard Torrez Jr vs. Joey Dawejko 

Art Barrera Jr vs. Jose Belloso 

Demler Zamora vs. Gerardo Antonio Perez 

Steven Navarro vs. Oscar Arroyo 

Sebastian Hernandez vs. Yonfrez Parejo

Castaneda vs Suarez Prediction

I think despite the disruptive change of opposition, Suarez is well-placed to secure a victory. Castaneda has been beaten by lesser men than the favourite and Suarez will fancy his style to be enough to beat the consummate boxer.

I’m picking Suarez to finish this inside the distance. A knockout for the favourite is available to back at 1/1.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.