Janibek Alimkhanuly vs Andrei Mikhailovich Predictions: Middleweight king to retain

IBF middleweight kingpin Janibek Alimkhanuly returns this Friday, October 4 as he defends his title against Andrei Mikhailovich. The fight takes place at The Star in Sydney, Australia on a card broadcast live on Sky Sports+.

Here are my Alimkhanuly vs Mikhailovich predictions ahead of this middleweight match-up.

This fight was supposed to take place back in July in Las Vegas. But Alimkhanuly fainted shortly before the weigh-in, nixing the bout. Interestingly, the WBO have not sanctioned this rematch despite the Kazakh still holding their title. Britain’s knockout phenom Hamzah Sheeraz is the number one contender for that strap. 

But the IBF title remains on the line, as does de facto designation as the planet’s premier 160-pounder. For Mikhailovich, the late withdrawal of Alimkhanuly last time out has added a personal element to this fight, too. The New Zealand-based Russian has been very vocal about the champion’s prospects of making the weight this time.

Alimkhanuly for his part seems unfazed. He certainly does not portray a man who thinks his troubles making the middleweight limit will continue. The 31-year-old has been calling out divisional counterparts like WBA boss Erislandy Lara and WBC titlist Carlos Adames. 

After his travails on the scales last time, this seems a bold strategy. Fighting an unbeaten challenger miles away from home should beget caution, too. Mikhailovich has not yet had the opportunity to face elite opposition, but he has dealt with 21 opponents already without defeat.

Mikhailovich has not fought since the first bout was cancelled, which is probably the smart play. A first-round knockout of journeyman Les Sherrington in April indicates a freshness. Plus, the summer training camp for the aborted Alimkhanuly clash will have kept Mikhailovich’s fitness where it needs to be.

He’ll need to be fresh and fit for this one. If Alimkhanuly’s weight struggles are behind him, he should breeze through this one. 15-0 with 10 knockouts, our man has stopped the likes of Danny Dignum, Rob Brant, Steven Butler and then-IBF champion Vincenzo Gualtieri. 

Denzel Bentley gave him a tricky 12-rounder back in November 2022. But the Brit was eventually overwhelmed and lost deservingly on the scorecards. 

The middleweight division is short on starpower. Its former standard-bearers Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin are gone, the former now a super middleweight and the latter nearing retirement. Alimkhanuly is yet to break through into the mainstream consciousness, but he is a fine fighter who the hardcore fans appreciate.

After their failed last meeting, you get the idea Mikhailovich appreciates Alimkhanuly a bit less. It will be interesting to see what role those weight troubles play on proceedings. The champion seems to be planning for a future at 160lbs. But sometimes fate is taken out of a fighter’s hands. A career plan can be altered by the body’s changes, particularly once you reach your 30s.

It would be churlish to suggest that Alimkhanuly being weight-drained represents Mikhailovich’s only chance of victory. But the Russian New Zealander is probably a level below the opposition Alimkhanuly has already beaten. The challenger is trigger-happy and will likely want to mix it up, perhaps even catching the Kazakh. But I don’t think Mikhailovich will land enough of those stiff inside-shots to take the win.

Alimkhanuly vs Mikhailovich Betting Odds

Alimkhanuly is the betting favourite here at 1/10. The challenger is a 11/2 underdog while the draw is up at 20/1. 

Alimkhanuly vs Mikhailovich Full Card

Janibek Alimkhanuly vs Andrei Mikhailovich; IBF middleweight title 

Charlie Kazzi vs Lui Magaiva; lightweight

Mea Motu vs. Shannon O’Connell; featherweight 

Wayne Telepe vs. Bashir Nassir; lightweight 

Ahmed Reda vs. Joe Kara; lightweight

Alimkhanuly vs Mikhailovich Prediction

I can see the champion retaining here. I think he is just too advanced from a skill point of view. Alimkhanuly is able to cope at range or win a firefight. My instinct is that Mikhailovich will opt for the latter and get stopped in the process.

My tip is Alimkhanuly by stoppage in rounds 10-12. Mikhailovich is up for this and the New Zealander doesn’t know yet how to lose. That will make him tough. He has some powerful words to back up after all.

But I see the champion grinding him down eventually, securing the finish late on. Rounds 10-12 to be precise, which is an 11/2 shot.

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