Jaime Munguia vs Bruno Surace Predictions: Munguia mark two makes his next move

Jaime Munguia continues on his comeback trail against Bruno Surace this Saturday, December 14 at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana. Sky Sports Main Event will carry this super middleweight attraction live. 

Here are my Munguia vs Surace predictions ahead of this Mexico-bound battle.

Former WBO super welterweight kingpin Munguia is walking a path that many fighters have trodden over the years. That of the post-Canelo comeback. Munguia, like many others, is piecing his career back together after being dominated by Mexico’s iconic Saul Alvarez. It is a road of mixed success for those that have traversed it. 

Dissecting the afterlife of every one of Canelo’s 66 fights would send this word count spiralling towards Tolkien territory, so let’s keep it brief. But the last 10 victories of Alvarez’s career have seen the fighters he beat continue as follows.

Sergey Kovalev: Fought twice in five years against poor opponents, going 1-1.

Callum Smith: Moved up to light heavyweight and lost to Artur Beterbiev. Won a comeback fight two weeks ago.

Avni Yildirim: Lost to Jack Cullen. Went back to German domestic level.

Billy Joe Saunders: Fractured eye socket suffered in Canelo fight has kept him out of the ring for three years.

Caleb Plant: Highlight-reel knockout of Anthony Dirrell was followed by loss to David Benavidez.

Gennady Golovkin: Retired.

John Ryder: Knocked out by Munguia then retired.

Jermell Charlo: Hasn’t fought in a year-and-a-half since.

Munguia: Beat Erik Bazinyan in September.

Edgar Berlanga: TBA considering his loss to Canelo only occurred in September.

As you can see from that sample size, nobody in recent years has gone on to great things after being sucked into the Canelo vacuum. Fighting the world’s most bankable boxer is a tremendous boon to one’s financial life. But in terms of being a worthy step in your career, it does more harm than good. Only Dmitry Bivol, who defeated Alvarez, has continued at the very top level afterwards.

Of course it must be taken into account that Golovkin, Ryder and Kovalev were aging when Canelo fought them. This rogue’s gallery could be argued as a damning indictment of Canelo’s dwindling level of competition. But the likes of Saunders, Smith and Plant were reigning world champions when the flame-haired phenom battered them.

Munguia has the chance to emerge as the pick of the bunch from Canelo’s list of recent victims. At 28, he has years left to rebuild. As a former world champion who had not lost a single fight until Alvarez’s intervention, there is clear talent there. What Munguia needs is a strong display to close out a mixed year.

Opposing him in that aim is Surace, an unbeaten but untested French prospect. ‘Brunello’ is fighting outside his native country for the first time, having scored just his fourth stoppage in 27 fights last time out. 

That 12th-round TKO over Jhon Jader Obregon netted Surace the EBU silver title. This puts him in the frame for a shot at the European title. That would be a far more hospitable route than the one Surace has chosen. A domestic level fighter with almost no knockout power at all. He’s brave, I’ll give him that.

What this fight represents is a chance for Munguia to end 2024 on a high. He ventured it all against Canelo and it didn’t come off. Now Munguia headlines in his hometown of Tijuana in a fight that provides a perfect canvas. Finish big and the still-highly-ranked Mexican can get back to the top.

Munguia vs Surace Fight Odds

Munguia is 1/33 to get the job done on home soil. Surace’s tricky away task is reflected in his 10/1 price. A draw, a result Surace has suffered twice in his career, is 20/1.

Munguia vs Surace Full Card

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Munguia vs Surace Prediction

Munguia is coming off a 10th-round knockout of Erik Bazinyan. His victim in that one was a world-ranked fighter, something Surace cannot lay claim to. I haven’t seen anything from the Frenchman that suggests he’ll be any more durable than Bazinyan.

I’m going for Munguia to do this in round seven. I think the Mexican will impress with this performance and if you agree you can back him to win in rounds seven at 8/1.

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