Inoue vs Picasso Predictions: ‘Monster’ seeks masterpiece end to 2025

Undisputed super bantamweight champion of the world Naoya Inoue takes on David Picasso this Saturday, December 27. The title fight headlines The Ring V: Night of the Samurai, a card heavily featuring Japanese boxers but that takes place at the Mohammed Abdo Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. DAZN will broadcast this late Christmas present of a card live.

Read on for my Inoue vs Picasso predictions.

Inoue vs Picasso Odds

Inoue is 1/80 to win here. I mean he is the pound-for-pound best fighter on the planet after all. Picasso is 14/1 for a buzzer-beating Upset of the Year candidate. The draw is 28/1. Inoue doesn’t do draws.

Inoue vs Picasso Fight Preview

‘Kaibutsu’ is the best fighter plying his trade on this planet today. Terence Crawford has laid down the undisputed super middleweight crown and retired. Oleksandr Usyk is the purest of geniuses, but he boxed just once this year and knocking out Daniel Dubois was a case of going over old ground.

No, for me it has to be Inoue. This will be the fourth outing of 2025 for ‘The Monster’. He knocked out Ye Joon Kim and Ramon Cardenas before out-scoring Murodjon Akhmadaliev. In 2024, he twice defended the undisputed super bantamweight title he unified in 2023. In 2022, the Japanese buzzsaw walloped the great Nonito Donaire in two rounds and broke Britain’s Paul Butler down in 11. 

If I go on, we will be here all day. The shorthand version is that you have to go back to Inoue’s fifth fight, way back in 2013, to find the last of his bouts without a world title on the line. You have to go back to the amateurs to find the last time this man lost.

Which makes Saturday all the more intriguing. Not necessarily because Picasso looks like the man to conquer the streak. But because the boxer many deem best-placed to do so will be featuring in the chief support bout.

As any Taylor Swift aficionado will tell you, eras come to an end. Three-weight world champion Junto Nakatani is viewed as the first real candidate in a while to possibly take Inoue’s long-protected ‘0’. The 27-year-old vacated his WBC, IBF and The Ring bantamweight titles to attempt just that.

What we have on Saturday is the classic eliminator scenario. Inoue must beat Picasso while a Nakatani victory over 20-0 Sebastian Hernandez is imperative. If both of these Japanese superstars do the necessaries, then a potentially epoch-shifting Inoue vs Nakatani fight is on.

But Inoue did not get where he is by losing focus. His detractors, if you can believe an unbeaten knockout artist of a four-weight world champion has those, will point to two recent knockdowns Inoue has suffered. Luis Nery and Cardenas have both dropped Inoue in the last couple of years. But ‘Kaibutsu’ looked unhurt on each occasion before going on to KO his assailants. 

Picasso is not the sort of fighter who will be banking on his power here. 32-0-1 with 17 knockouts, the massive underdog will understand he needs to play the long game in Riyadh.

The 25-year-old Mexican might find that this chance has come a little too soon. But who can blame Picasso for backing himself? He comes into this fight as the WBC number-one contender. Fabio Wardley, Troy Williamson and Tiara Brown have walked into fights in 2025 as underdogs and walked out with championships. While the rest of us wince, Picasso will have full belief in trying to secure a victory that belongs next to the masterpieces of his namesake.

Sadly, the rest of the world views this fight as an advertisement for Inoue-Nakatani. Simply another December visit from your friendly neighbourhood ‘Monster’, a fighter who has scored seven Christmas-week victories.

Inoue vs Picasso Full Card

Naoya Inoue vs David Picasso

Junto Nakatani vs Sebastian Hernandez Reyes

Willibaldo Garcia Perez vs Kenshiro Teraji

Taiga Imanaga vs Eridson Garcia

Reito Tsutsumi vs Leobardo Quintana Sanchez

Inoue vs Picasso Prediction

Picasso’s style feels like manna from heaven for Inoue’s ambitions. The Mexican comes forward behind a tucked guard, trying to absorb artillery on his arms before firing back. A pressure-fighter without the power to take the style global, this could be a short night for the ambitious challenger.

Inoue will love this assignment. A foe he does not have to go looking for who is unlikely to ask questions of his chin. I expect the KO-happy ‘Kaibutsu’ to add to his list of stoppages here. I’m taking Inoue to get it done in rounds 4-6 at 2/1.

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