Inoue vs Nery Predictions: The Monster looks set for another KO show

Undisputed super bantamweight champion Naoya Inoue takes on Luis Nery this Monday, May 6 at the Tokyo Dome in Japan. Sky Sports Action will televise the bout. Here are my Inoue vs Nery predictions ahead of another thrilling chapter in the story of ‘Kaibutsu’.

You aren’t reading this article to be told who is going to win. No, dear reader, you are already utterly convinced that Inoue is going to leave the fabled Dome with his bevy of belts. You likely aren’t even seeking my insight on the method of victory. ‘The Monster’ by knockout probably already sits on your betslip. What you’re here to find out is when in the fight I think Nery will topple.

Unfortunately, my editor would leave my face looking like I’d just been in the ring with ‘Kaibutsu’ if I submitted an 117-word article, so we’re going to ruminate on this for a little while. After all, is another highlight-reel knockout from Inoue really such a foregone conclusion? 

Inoue does this, however unwittingly. He is arguably the finest fighter on the planet and certainly the most fearsome. In the shadow of ‘The Monster’, some excellent opponents have been cast in an almost-forgotten supporting role. Luminary world champions such as Nonito Donaire, Stephen Fulton, Omar Narvaez and Emmanuel Rodriguez have been reduced. Whoever Inoue fights, the question is not if but when they will get knocked out.

The undisputed super bantamweight king has only been taken the distance three times. Inoue beat Ryoichi Taguchi on points in his fourth fight. To put that in perspective, Taguchi would win a world title the following year. David Carmona managed it in 2016, though he lost almost every round. Then Donaire went the full 12 with Inoue in 2019 in a thriller. Inoue would crush Donaire in two rounds in their 2022 rematch.

To summarise, Inoue has only faced one man he failed to knock out in the last decade. When it comes to the Japanese four-weight world champion, the hype is very real. This is why Nery, like so many before him, has been written off since this fight was announced.

Does he deserve to be? Yes and no. No fighter who takes to the unforgiving stage of gloved combat deserves to have their sacrifices minimised. Especially not when taking on the most feared practitioner of the discipline. 

Equally, Nery’s accomplishments are truly deserving of this opportunity. He is a two-weight world champion, including a stint with the WBC belt that Inoue currently holds. Nery has lost just once in 36 fights, knocking out 27 of his victims along the way. In short, he is a very good fighter.

Nery is not without his controversy, problems which almost precluded this fight from taking place. In 2017, ‘Pantera’ routed Shinsuke Yamanaka in four rounds to win the WBC and The Ring bantamweight belts. Nery failed a post-fight drugs test and had the latter title stripped. The WBC would eventually rule that the adverse result was due to contaminated food, keeping Nery as champion and ordering a rematch.

Nery missed weight for the rematch, completing the other half of his 2024 Ryan Garcia bingo card, and lost his belt on the scales. But the beefed-up ex-champion blitzed Yamanaka in two rounds. Due to missing weight, the Japanese Boxing Commission banned Nery for life.

The ban didn’t last, with the Mexican being allowed to fight at the Tokyo Dome against Inoue here. Perhaps facing the knockout machine is some kind of perverse punishment for the Yamanaka debable? Who can say. Perhaps that suggestion is unfair to Nery, but not by much.

‘Pantera’ is a talent, but a panther is no match for a ‘Monster’. As hinted at in the beginning, I really feel like this is a case of when the knockout arrives. But still, we had fun on the journey didn’t we? Brandon Figueroa got it done in seven rounds in Nery’s sole loss. Inoue will do it quicker than that I feel. I’m opting for an Inoue knockout between rounds 4-6, priced at 21/10. They won’t have to ban Nery after this, I don’t see him wanting to go back to Japan.

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