Holly Holm vs Yolanda Guadalupe Vega Predictions: Pioneer Holm benefits from what she built

Combat legend Holly Holm returns to the squared ring for the first time in 12 years this Saturday, June 28. ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ takes on Yolanda Guadalupe Vega in her professional boxing comeback, having spent the past decade competing in the UFC. The bout takes place on the undercard of Jake Paul’s latest dog and pony show against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. DAZN PPV will broadcast the event, which emanates from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

Here are my Holly Holm vs Yolanda Guadalupe Vega predictions ahead of this huge comeback fight for the New Mexico icon.

Holly Holm vs Yolanda Guadalupe Vega Odds

Despite her long absence, Holm is heavily favoured here. She's 1/8 for a victory, compared to Vega's 6/1. A stalemate between the pair is marketed at 14/1.

Holly Holm vs Yolanda Guadalupe Vega Fight Preview

Holly Holm is a true pioneer. She is the only fighter of any gender walking this planet who has won world titles in boxing and the UFC. 

Plenty of fighters have dipped their toes into the waters of their opposing sport. James Toney, Claressa Shields and Savannah Marshall have given MMA a go. Half of headliner Jake Paul’s record is composed of talent no longer fit for purpose in the UFC. Men like Anderson Silva, Tyron Woodley and Ben Askren who tried to parlay their skills into the realm of pugilism.

But no other fighter has truly excelled across both disciplines. Holm is in the International Boxing Hall of Fame. The 43-year-old is a two-time The Ring Fighter of the Year and a three-weight boxing world champion with 18 title defences. 

In the UFC, she made history by becoming the first person to beat Ronda Rousey, winning the UFC Bantamweight Championship in the process. The shock result won her a slew of Upset of the Year and Knockout of the Year awards, including UFC’s own gongs in those categories. 

Retiring from the cage last year after a submission loss to Kayla Harrison, Holm now returns to a sport that is unrecognisable from the one she left behind in 2013. 

Women’s boxing is more popular than ever. Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano headline Madison Square Garden for the second time next month. Shields and Marshall filled the O2 Arena, headlining an all-female extravaganza. Lauren Price and Natasha Jonas did the same at the Royal Albert Hall. While Holm and the stars of her era were relegated to small casinos or prelim slots for a men’s fight, now it is the female warriors who put on the sport’s most thrilling fights.

So Holm returns to take what is rightfully hers. Taylor, Serrano and Shields stand on the shoulders of giants. Without the likes of Holm, Laila Ali and Christy Martin this revolution for the female game simply does not happen. 

Vega is the fighter who has pulled the winning lottery ticket here. Her 10-0 ledger looks good to the untrained eye. But she has never fought outside Mexico and none of the beaten names jump off the page. The single knockout in 10 fights does not concern me, given that power is a less-common trait in the women’s sport.

The resumes are worlds apart. But Holm returns to a sport she has not competed in professionally for 12 years. No amount of sparring or road work can replicate the pressurised atmosphere of the prize ring. 

Holm has obviously been active and in fight-ready shape. But three five-minute rounds in the Octagon is a different pace of fighting to 10 two-minute sessions in boxing. The shorter rounds and focus entirely on striking is an energy-sapper to a different degree than the varied UFC fight style. Both sports are as difficult as each other, there is no disputing that. But boxing conditioning differs from that of MMA. On the women’s side in particular, two-minute rounds are a sprint when compared to the five-minute martial arts marathon.

This should be a grand return for one of boxing’s living legends. But the sport is not always kind to its icons. The list of Hall of Fame boxers who won their final fight is a lot shorter than you might think. But Holm does not consider this her last fight. 

By competing at lightweight, a smaller weight than she ever has in boxing but bang-on her UFC size, the Albuquerque girl is openly pursuing a title at a fourth weight. She would become just the sixth woman in boxing history to achieve the feat. 

But history has to wait, despite Holm being a regular feature in the chronicles of her sport. First Vega needs to be removed from her path. Inexperienced, but young, hungry and unbeaten. A challenger to be taken very seriously indeed.

Holly Holm vs Yolanda Guadalupe Vega Full Card

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Holly Holm vs Yolanda Guadalupe Vega Predictions

The form guide is useless here. Holm last fought in 2013, five months before Anthony Joshua’s professional debut and four months before main-eventer Jake Paul had posted the initial Vine video that launched his social media career.

Vega is an unbeaten fighter facing her first genuine test. Holm is an icon who appears to be in excellent shape, but will naturally carry some rust. There is a lot at play here. Plenty of known unknowns, as my maths teacher used to say. I still don’t know what he was on about if I’m honest.

A prime Holm walks through this girl without breaking a sweat. But I will allow for the 43-year-old version to have a slower start. A feeling-out process as she readjusts to parrying jabs rather than stuffing takedowns.

When Holm gets her sea legs, some time around round three or four, I think she dominates for the duration. Vega is not being groomed for great things. She would not be in this position if she was. I think she is being brought in as, if not easy prey, then a reasonably compliant target. I’ll take ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ on points at 1/4. 

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