Ernesto Mercado vs Jose Pedraza Predictions: Pedraza rages against the dying of the light

Rising super lightweight prospect Ernesto Mercado takes on ex-world champion Jose Pedraza this Saturday, January 25. The bout takes place on the undercard of Diego Pacheco’s battle of the unbeatens with Steven Nelson. The action emanates live on DAZN from The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas. 

Here are my Mercado vs Pedraza predictions ahead of this crossroads collision.

Ernesto Mercado vs Jose Pedraza Odds

Mercado’s youth and knockout streak sees him named a 1/16 favourite going in. Pedraza’s winless run of four fights explains his 7/1 status. The draw is 16/1.

Fight Preview

Pedraza has hit the autumn years of a familiar boxing journey. A 2008 Olympian and silver medalist at the following year’s World Championships, the Puerto Rican swept the pros. Pedraza won world titles at both super featherweight and lightweight as he made good on his amateur promise.

Pedraza’s two title reigns ended at the fists of generational talents, with Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis taking his IBF super featherweight prize and Vasiliy Lomachenko scooping his WBO lightweight strap. But there is no shame in losing to a pair of history-makers.

However, since 2022, Pedraza’s age and years of ring wars have started to tell. He is on a run of three losses and one draw, albeit in exceptional company. The stalemate came against former IBF lightweight champion Richard Commey. Meanwhile, unbeaten contenders Arnold Barboza and Keyshawn Davis, as well as ex-unified world champion Jose Ramirez, doled out the defeats.

How much Pedraza has left is anyone’s guess at this stage. The three decisions were competitive, but it has been 11 months since Davis knocked him out. At the age of 35, you sense inactivity hasn’t done anything to help the ‘Sniper’.

Which is probably why  23-year-old prospect Mercado is being matched with him. 16-0 with 15 knockouts, the Pomona power-puncher has already taken out some decent names. Stoppages of Jeremia Nakathila and Hank Lundy, as well as a decision over Xolisani Ndongeni, have demonstrated he is already above the gatekeepers.

The next step on the traditional pathway is facing a formerly-world class fighter who is viewed as being on the slide. Siphon off some notoriety and experience without risking a sore jaw against one of the big names. Mercado is being moved smartly and Pedraza makes perfect sense as an opponent.

But what if Mercado isn’t as advertised? What if the reason Pedraza has been getting pounded is simply because he has continued fighting elite fighters into his dotage? There is a school of thought that suggests this is a real acid test for the 23-year-old. It might not be borne out in the odds, which reflect the prospect vs fallen star narrative. But perhaps, just maybe, Pedraza’s decline isn’t as far along as it appears.

Mercado vs Pedraza Full Card

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Ernesto Mercado vs. Jose Pedraza

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Nishant Dev vs. Alton Wiggins

Harley Merderos vs. Arturo de Isla

Zaquin Moses vs. Alex Pallette

Mercado vs Pedraza Prediction

It hurts to count Pedraza out. The Puerto Rican has given us some great nights over the years. But time waits for no fighter, no matter how decorated. I think this is Mercado’s time. I’m picking the youngster to prevail at 1/16.

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