Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia Predictions: Lara to retain in battle of veterans

Erislandy Lara defends his WBA middleweight title against blast from the past Danny Garcia this Saturday, September 14. The bout takes place on the undercard of Saul Canelo Alvarez’s fight with Edgar Berlanga. The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will serve as the venue, with DAZN PPV broadcasting the action live.

Here are my Lara vs Garcia predictions ahead of this clash of the veterans.

For those who do not follow the sport of boxing obsessively, you might be asking yourself a question here. To prematurely answer it for you, yes it is that Danny Garcia. 

The one who put his name on British fans’ lips with a dominant win over Amir Khan. The Garcia that has beaten a litany of legends and champions like Erik Morales, Zab Judah, Kendall Holt, Robert Guerrero and Paulie Malignaggi to name just a few. 

That list of scalps reads like something from another era and, truly, it is. Garcia last won a world title fight in 2016, beating Guerrero to capture the WBC welterweight strap. ‘Swift’ last defeated a sort-of contender in 2018, when he turned over a fading Brandon Rios. 

Garcia has not fought for a world title in four years, when he dropped a decision to Errol Spence Jr. He hasn’t boxed full stop in over two years, when he scored a majority decision over Jose Benavidez Jr. If Garcia feels like a name from boxing’s past, it’s probably because he is.

Admittedly, Lara is very much one of Garcia’s peers. It is 10 years since ‘The American Dream’ battled Saturday’s headliner, Canelo, losing via split decision. Lara and Garcia even spent a period in the mid-2010s as simultaneous world champions in different divisions. The former held the WBA super welterweight strap while Garcia held the WBC equivalent down at welterweight.

But the key difference is that Lara never left that lofty level. While Garcia has been in the world championship wilderness for almost a decade, his Cuban foe has either won, retained or lost a world title in every single one of his bouts since 2014. 

Lara has since moved up from super welterweight to middleweight, winning the WBA strap in that division back in 2021 with a first-round knockout of Thomas Manna. Lara has slowed down since, understandably at the age of 41. He knocked out Gary ‘Spike’ O’Sullivan in 2022 in his first title defence. Then after remaining sidelined through 2023, Lara returned in March of this year with a second-round TKO over Australian contender Michael Zerafa.

While both of Saturday’s principals are most commonly-associated with mid-2000s boxing, their status in 2024 is very different. Garcia is a curio. The most interesting element of his participation will be seeing how much he has left. Lara, meanwhile, is a 41-year-old world champion for whom you wonder when the magic will dry up.

This is a most curious world title match-up. One surely done based mainly on name recognition. Canelo pay-per-views capture the casual and lapsed fan more than any other event. Premier Boxing Champions seem to be banking on Garcia’s once-glowing star rather than giving Lara a worthy fight. This is no attack on Garcia, he was an excellent fighter in his pomp. But the man has not done anything in recent years to warrant this shot.

Lara vs Garcia Fight Odds

Lara leads the way as a 1/3 favourite. Garcia is 12/5 to manage an upset here while a draw between the pair is 16/1.

Lara vs Garcia Full Card

Saul Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga; WBC, WBA and WBO super middleweight titles Erislandy Lara vs. Danny Garcia; WBA world middleweight title 

Caleb Plant vs. Trevor McCumby; Super middleweight 

Rolando Romero vs. Manuel Jaimes; Super lightweight 

Stephen Fulton vs. Carlos Castro; Featherweight

Lara vs Garcia Prediction

I can’t see past Lara here. The veteran may be aging, but he has been a picture of consistency for a decade now. The champion has not lost a fight since 2018, while Garcia has lost two of his last five outings.

Garcia’s peak was at welterweight and he has never competed as a middleweight. Lara is accustomed to the weight and has power and is on a run of three knockouts. This fight is only going one way.

My pick is Lara to use his size and sharpness to shut down Garcia, winning by stoppage. You can back my selection at odds of 9/4.

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