Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez II Predictions: An absorbing fight gets a deserved rematch

Emanuel Navarrete defends his WBO super featherweight championship against Oscar Valdez this Saturday, December 7. This world title rematch takes place at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona with Sky Sports Main Event televising the show. 

Here are my Navarrete vs Valdez predictions ahead of this repeat performance.

Our two combatants return to the state of Arizona, after contesting a 12-rounder at the Diamond Arena in Glendale back in August 2023. Navarrete beat Valdez via unanimous decision on the night but this rematch remains welcomed.

That is due to the fact it represents a dying breed. A modern fight that demands a rematch due not to controversy nor an unwanted contractual obligation. Navarrete deserved the points nod and no rematch clause existed in the deal. We are getting a rematch simply because the action in the first fight was so thrilling. A proper, old-school boxing sequel.

This return finds each man on a slightly different footing than the first bout did, even though it still features Navarrete entering as champion and Valdez as challenger.

The WBO incumbent actually hasn’t won a fight in two attempts since prevailing over Valdez. There was a majority draw with Robson Conceicao. Navarrete did knock the Brazilian down twice, but his challenger battled back in an intense outing. 

In his last fight, Navarrete attempted to snare the vacant WBO lightweight title against Denis Berinchyk. In an awkward, messy outing, Berinchyk rode out the usually-powerful punches of Navarrete to take the title via split decision. It became on the clear that the power of ‘Vaquero’ had not carried up to 135lb. 

So Navarrete returns to familiar territory in terms of both weight and opponent. Valdez has fared better since their first meeting. While he has only been out once, it was an impressive display. Valdez stopped Aussie contender Liam Wilson in seven rounds to wrest the WBO interim championship and earn this shot at the full title.

It is an interesting dichotomy. Valdez is the form fighter, perhaps redressing the balance of Navarrete’s victory in the first fight. Both men have an ingrained belief they can win this. One because he has done so before. The other because he secured redemption. This is fascinatingly poised.

Navarrete kept control in the first fight despite an injury slowing him down in the middle rounds. Valdez fought tooth-and-nail until the end but it is hard to see him pulling out something we didn’t see in the first fight. In the exchanges, it is Navarrette who typically emerged with the final word.

But has the punishing Conceicao draw and the frustrating Berinchyk loss ebbed away at some of the confidence of ‘Vaquero’? Navarrete’s last two fights were the first he had failed to win in a decade. When weathering the storm of Valdez last summer, Navarrete had the confidence of a man scarcely beaten. How he is a boxer wondering where his next win will come from. Will the Mexican find it so easy to dig into his reserves under pressure?

Navarrete vs Valdez II Fight Odds

Navarrete is the favourite here at 3/10, owing to his victory in the first fight. Valdez is very much a live underdog at 5/2. You can back a draw at 16/1.

Navarrete vs Valdez II Full Card

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Navarrete vs Valdez II Prediction

Despite their divergent paths since the first fight, I like Navarrete here. I think going in against an opponent he knows he can beat, back at his natural weight, will pay dividends.

Valdez will make it tough. There is a reason nobody has stopped this guy. For that reason, I see this going the distance. I’m taking Navarette on points at 21/20.

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