Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado Predictions: Title unification between two brilliant champions

IBF, WBO and The Ring super bantamweight champion Ellie Scotney looks to unify her titles against WBC titlist Yamileth Mercado this Friday, July 11. The bout takes place at the historic Madison Square Garden in New York, on the undercard of Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III. The event will be screened live on Netflix.

Here are my Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado predictions ahead of this world title contest.

Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado Odds

Scotney is 1/10 to win this title tussle. Mercado is a long-time champion not used to odds like 6/1 for a win. The draw is priced at 16/1.

Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado Fight Preview

It has been a perfect 10 for Scotney so far in her pro career. The Lewisham stylist has gone 10-0 and while her resume is without a knockout, it does not want for huge accolades. 

Scotney picked up the European title with a points win over Mary Romero in her sixth fight. In her seventh, she out-scored the tough Cherneka Johnson to capture the IBF super bantamweight championship. Johnson, who fights Shurretta Metcalf on this card, would go on to win the WBA title down at bantamweight in her very next outing.

Sandwiched between two further title defences, Scotney ascended to the very top of the division when she defeated the previously-unbeaten Segolene Lefebvre for the WBO title. The Ring championship was also on the line as the division crowned a widely-recognised number-one in Scotney.

This stellar reputation stands across from WBC champion Mercado on Friday night. But the Mexican will not be intimidated. After all, she has held her championship for the entirety of Scotney’s professional career.

‘Yeimi’ is a fixture in the honour roll of this division. Mercado outpointed previous conqueror Fatuma Zarika in a rematch to claim the crown in November 2019. She has not lost at the weight since. Meanwhile, Scotney’s debut win over Bec Connolly did not take place until October 2020.

But there is quality backing up the quantity. Along with seven title defences, there have been two non-title victories. Mercado’s 10th fight since winning the WBC belt came in a brave sojourn to featherweight, where she lost to headliner and then-undisputed champ Amanda Serrano on points in 2021.

This is a fighter forged in the fires of the Mexican system, which usually favours early pro starts over long amateur schooling. Mercado was boxing fully grown women at the age of 17. But the proof is in the pudding and now she is a veteran world champion while still only 27 years of age.

Last time out, Mercado beat Ramla Ali, a boxer once expected to go far in this business. Ali had been groomed for stardom but the Mexican title-holder showed the levels required. With no regard for reputation, she pounded out a wide points win over Ali. Expect her to treat Scotney with the same disregard.

That is easier said than done. Scotney has boxed just 10 times as a professional, against 27 outings for Mercado. But the Londoner is yet to truly be tested. She had to fight through a nasty cut to overcome Mea Motu in her last defence. But even then, Scotney out-pointed the New Zealander 99-91 on all three cards.

Will Scotney finally find an opponent who can take here to the wire? Or will Mercado’s experience count for naught as the longest active title reign in professional boxing, male or female, comes to an end?

Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado Full Card

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III 

Alycia Baumgardner vs Jennifer Miranda

Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado

Savannah Marshall vs Shadasia Green

Chantelle Cameron vs Jessica Camara

Cherneka Johnson vs Shurretta Metcalf

Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado Prediction

Mercado is gritty, tough and irrepressible. But she is not a knockout artist. The Mexican has five career knockouts. Scotney has none at all, which suggests this one is going long. 

Atypically for a Mexican fighter, Mercado is a mover. She likes to work off the back foot and create openings before sitting on her shots. Equally incongruous for a fighter who has never scored a stoppage, Scotney often walks down her prey before unleashing flurries in close.

I think the styles match-up is great and could keep this one closer than the usual Scotney outing. Mercado has been in with the very best, not least the 10 rounds she spent in Serrano’s company. She is a survivor.

I think Mercado will survive and even thrive, to a degree. But I reckon those Scotney raids will take their toll as the night wears on. I’m picking the Brit on points at 1/5.

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