Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson Predictions: Tickets please for the last train out of ‘0’ town

Super middleweight next-big-thing Diego Pacheco takes on Steven Nelson this Saturday, January 25. The bout headlines a big Matchroom night in Las Vegas at The Cosmopolitan. DAZN will broadcast the card live.

Here are my Pacheco vs Nelson predictions ahead of this enticing main event.

Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson Odds

Nelson is a decent 3/1 for this, reflecting the uncertainty attached to any opponent who has never lost. Pacheco is the favourite at 2/9 while you can take a punt on a stalemate at 16/1.

Fight Preview

Something has got to give in Nevada. Pacheco and Nelson both come into this bout with undefeated records. However, despite just two fights separating them in terms of records, they enter Vegas at very different points in their respective careers.

Nelson has had two fights less at 20-0, but he is 13 years older than his opponent. The 36-year-old is ranked 14th by the WBO, world recognition that has been a long time coming for the Nebraska native. Having inflicted the first career defeats on the likes of Marcos Vazquez Rodriguez and Cem Kilic, Nelson also knows how to stain an unblemished record.

But despite being over a decade younger at 23, Pacheco has amassed more fights (22) and a better quality of foe during his career. The LA-born star was the top-ranked amateur middleweight in both the USA and Mexico at the time he turned pro. That sort of pedigree necessitates a pro journey to match.

That journey has gone to plan so far. Matchroom have got Pacheco out there in good fights. He stopped former British champion Jack Cullen in Liverpool two years ago. Two fights later he halted ex-world title challenger Marcelo Coceres in nine rounds. 

Pacheco also snapped Shawn McCalman’s 15-0 record and last time out he became just the third person to beat Maciej Sulecki. Considering the fact that the other two were then-WBO champ Demetrius Andrade and ex-middleweight king Daniel Jacobs, the signifiers look good for Pacheco.

The tests are only going to get tougher for the gifted youngster. Pacheco finds himself as the number one contender for Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez’s WBO championship. That fight might be a little way off for Pacheco considering the flak the flame-haired great took for his recent win over a raw Edgar Berlanga. But the fact Pacheco is within touching distance of such fights shows where his trajectory points.

IBF kingpin William Scull might be a more appealing route, given ‘Canelo’ also has the WBC and WBA straps under lock and key. I’d back Pacheco to beat the Cuban-born champion fighting out of Germany. With Alvarez looking like fighting Terence Crawford, alternative belts will need to be sought and Scull is the other viable option.

But first, Pacheco must overcome Nelson. It looks for all intents and purposes like he will. Nelson is dangerous in that he doesn’t know how to lose. He can also punch, with 16 knockouts from his 20 wins. 

But he’ll need more to beat this can’t-miss prospect you’d wager. Like Dalton Smith, who headlines the British half of this Matchroom double-header, you get the sense Pacheco is making the last stop on his journey to world titles. I don’t think Nelson is the man to stop him getting there.

Pacheco vs Nelson Full Card

Diego Pacheco vs. Steven Nelson

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Ernesto Mercado vs. Jose Pedraza

Leonardo Rubalcava vs. Israel Mercado

Nishant Dev vs. Alton Wiggins

Harley Mederos vs. Arturo de Isla

Zaquin Moses vs. Alex Pallette

Pacheco vs Nelson Prediction

Nelson has got something and he deserves his chance to prove that here. But I don’t think it’s enough to fend off Pacheco.

I see the 23-year-old triumphing in this one and keeping his procession towards world titles going. Whether he wins one depends on the avenue he takes. But I think Pacheco gets past Nelson with a win at 2/9.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.