Crocker vs Donovan Predictions: History, controversy, hypocrisy and ecstasy

History will be made as Lewis Crocker takes on Paddy Donovan in the first-ever all-Irish boxing world title fight on Saturday, September 13. The bout will decide a new IBF welterweight champion, with the vacant title contested at Windsor Park in Belfast. DAZN will screen the event live, with former UFC star Molly McCann making her pro boxing debut on the undercard.

Here are my Crocker vs Donovan predictions.

Crocker vs Donovan Odds

Crocker is 9/2, despite winning their first fight. His 18.2% implied probability perhaps accounting for the controversial disqualification ending of their first outing. Donovan is 1/6 to right those perceived wrongs while the draw is priced at 16/1.

Crocker vs Donovan Fight Preview

This cross-Ireland clash already produced action in spades in the first encounter. For many, it also produced one fighter who was clearly superior. But that man did not get his hand raised.

After a solid start from Crocker, Donovan came into the fight in a big way three rounds in. With his man suffering a horrible cut, Donovan started stamping his authority. But the referee deducted two points for his use of the elbow and the head. The official should have been on high alert from this point on, but the way the fight ended called his work into question.

Donovan knocked Crocker down in the eighth round and looked to be on the verge of victory. The Belfast boy rose and battled valiantly along the ropes, but as the round ticked down it looked like his efforts would come to nought. 

But as the bell sounded, one last blow knocked Donovan down and he could not get up. The referee had been poorly-positioned when the bell had rung, failing to halt the close-quarters action. When fighters are fighting that up-close, in a rowdy arena, when the 10-second toll is given the referee should be on top of the action. But alas, the late blow landed and the fight was forced to end in Donovan being disqualified. 

Given the enmity, controversy and action; a rematch was inevitable. But this North-South feud has been supercharged by Jaron ‘Boots’ Ennis’ move up to super welterweight. That freed up the American’s IBF welterweight strap, which will now be on the line after the first fight served as an eliminator for the sanctioning body.

The significance of this cannot be overstated, even among the social media-feeding officiating faux pas. Both Northern Ireland and the Republic have provided some incredible fighters.

For the latter we have Dublin’s Steve Collins smashing the Eubank-Benn old order in the 1990s. That indelible ‘Clones Colossus’ Barry McGuigan uniting a nation to the sound of ‘Danny Boy’. Deirdre Gogarty and Katie Taylor putting women’s boxing on the map across generations.  

For Northern Ireland, modern great Carl Frampton is a two-weight king who beat astonishing men like Leo Santa Cruz and Nonito Donaire. Wayne McCullough was a fixture of big American fight cards, proudly representing Belfast as WBC bantamweight champion. There was the great flyweight Dave McAuley. Most recently, Anthony Cacace upset Joe Cordina to kick off a fine late-career resurgence as a world champ. 

These are not all the great Irish world champions boxing has produced. Just a sampling of the sport and its Emerald Isle heroes. But in amongst all these icons, none ever faced Irish opposition while challenging for or defending any of their world titles. 

Crocker and Donovan get that chance to write history. With any fight that is going to go down in the pantheon, you do not want to be the person to lose it. Both men arguably emerged from the first battle with that feeling. Crocker will know he was on the verge of defeat and would not have answered the bell had it sounded a second later. Donovan raised his arms thinking he had won by knockout, only to see his first career defeat infect his record instead. All to play for here in a fight and occasion that promises to be truly, truly special. 

Crocker vs Donovan Full Card 

Lewis Crocker vs Paddy Donovan

Ishmael Davis vs Caoimhin Agyarko 

Tyrone McKenna vs Dylan Moran 

Pat Brown vs Austine Nnamdi 

Molly McCann vs Kate Radomska 

Ruadhan Farrell vs Matthew Boreland 

Donagh Keary vs Caine Singh 

Aaron Bowen vs Carlos Miguel Ronner 

Kyle Smith vs Connor Meanwell 

Jim Donovan vs Lucas Barabasz

Crocker vs Donovan Prediction

I think we will get a determined pairing here which should see this fight even surpass their riotous first. The belt on the line adds another dimension. The fight has gone from an arena in the first outing to a stadium for this sequel. Both men also have something to prove, as touched upon earlier. Each will feel a bit like they lost that first fight, as much as their press-tour bravado suggests otherwise.

Crocker will surprise a few here. He is tough and talented and has drawn a lot of unfair criticism for the first fight. I do not for one second believe he wanted the fight to end that way, even if it did keep him unbeaten. The Belfast boy will impress in front of another home crowd.

But I do not believe he will win. Donovan will be a little more cautious this time, hoping to avoid more over-zealous officiating. But once he finds the openings, that power will be the deciding factor. I expect ‘The Real Deal’ to win it late on. Donovan in rounds 10-12 at 9/2 sounds about right. 

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