Conlan vs Bateson Predictions: ‘Irish Mick’ must make the best of Dublin dice-roll

Belfast boxing hero Michael Conlan returns this Friday, September 5 against Jack Bateson. The bout headlines the 3Arena in Dublin, with the bout being broadcast live on Channel 5. High profile support comes from Charlie Edwards and Ben Marksby as they each take on big fights in the super flyweight and super lightweight divisions respectively. 

Here are my Conlan vs Bateson predictions ahead of this Friday night fight.

Conlan vs Bateson Odds

Conlan is the favourite at 2/5, reflecting his world level experience. Bateson is a live underdog at 11/5 while the draw is priced at 14/1.

Conlan vs Bateson Fight Preview

Conlan is experiencing a rare first here, as the Belfast boy boxes in the Republic of Ireland for the first time as a professional. The bout also represents his first fight scheduled for more than eight rounds in two years.

Conlan’s previous two longer-distance fights were 12-rounders and both ended in defeat. Luis Alberto Lopez levelled ‘Irish Mick’ with an uppercut in the fifth round of an IBF world title bout in May 2023. Taking on the gifted Jordan Gill was ill-advised seven months later, despite Conlan being a clear favourite. The cobwebs remained and ‘The Thrill’ scored the upset over the Irishman.

The 33-year-old is no stranger to the long road back. In March 2022, Conlan was one half of one of the finest all-British world title fights your scribe can remember. A scintillating war fought in then-WBA champion Leigh Wood’s Nottingham back yard, Conlan knocked his man down in the first round to set alight to a stunning contest.

With both men cut and gumshields being bitten so hard it’s amazing they didn’t snap in two, Wood fired back in a gobsmacking 12th round to knock Conlan out cold and out of the ring. It was a Rocky-esque end to a fight that would have made Apollo Creed wince. Immortality earned the hard way.

As much as Conlan was feted alongside Wood, no boxer likes to lose a fight everyone is going to remember forever. But Mick battled back, stunningly taking to the ring just five months later. A wide points win over former world title challenger Miguel Marriaga seemed to show Conlan still had a lot to offer. A first-round knockout of Karim Guerfi to cap off the year seemed to suggest, from the jaws of defeat in 2022, that 2023 would be Conlan’s year.

Redemption did not take the form the Olympic bronze medalist anticipated. By the time Conlan had bounced back, Wood had lost his world title to Mauricio Lara. So instead of a money-spinning rematch, Conlan went into uncharted territory against Lopez.

The star-crossed feathers actually had their dates with destiny on the same day. Wood got revenge, stopping his Mexican conqueror to reclaim the WBA belt. But Conlan fell to another of the country’s boxing warriors, as Lopez knocked him out in five. Pre-fight, the talk was of a two-belt rematch with Wood should both be successful. But the sequel went from odds-on to unlikely. Considering both men have been knocked out since, Conlan by Gill and Wood by Antony Cacace, I’d put the chances of the rematch happening at near-impossible.

But that is not where Conlan’s target is anyway now. The ‘Irish Mick’ of 2025 is eyeing advancement towards a third, and likely final, world title fight. After warming up with an eight-round points nod over Asad Khan in March, Conlan takes his first big fight since the Gill defeat nearly two years ago.

Bateson is a top-end domestic concern. His only defeat came over 12 rounds to Shabaz Masoud, the 14-0 ‘Maverick’ who no fighter can quite work out. A crack at world-ranked Danny Quartermaine last time out ended in a disappointing technical draw due to a head clash that cut both men. That was a real shame, as that match-up looked capable of providing Britain’s next world title challenger at featherweight. 

Bateson is a serious fight for Conlan. There are certainly softer touches out there. But at 33, Conlan is wasting little time. You get the sense the Irishman would rather have another world title defeat on his resume than five or six meaningless wins. This is all-or-nothing for the decorated amateur.

Bateson will see this as a chance to spoil the party. Two years younger at 31, he feels a decade younger in boxing terms. Conlan has been in with the best in the world, hot on the heels of winning World Amateur Championships and scoring Olympic medals. Bateson has had 12 of his 22 fights at the Banqueting Suite at Elland Road, on cards promoted by his father. A fine boxing grounding, but nothing like the life through a lens that Conlan has lived.

That is not an insult or snark directed at Bateson. Merely a representation of the levels of competition each man has faced. Of course, Conlan had greatness expected of him from the second he strapped on a pro glove. His Olympic medal came after he had put his middle finger up at the judges who he felt denied him a place in the final with their scoring. Conlan had a point, though the fact he made it in such volatile fashion did little to endear him to the traditionalists. 

But pro boxing loves the unconventional, so Conlan’s debut was greeted with fanfare. There has been controversy since, including the use of a walk-on song with alleged pro-IRA ties that was widely criticised. But Conlan has sought the spotlight and appeared to revel in it. 

Bateson has had a quieter existence. That can help a fighter, but it has not all been by design. The Leeds lad is a former Team GB amateur, narrowly missing out on the Rio 2016 Olympics. Without the boon of a medal, Bateson worked his way up from the small hall circuit.

The 31-year-old found a home on Josh Warrington’s undercards and could have been next in line to headline Leeds’ big venues. But that jump up was abated by Abdulah, who beat Bateson in a tough scrap where the Yorkshireman acquitted himself well.

The road back was navigated with three six-round wins. The Quartermaine bout was meant to be the arrival at world level. But an accidental head clash put paid to that. Now Bateson fights the biggest name of his career, away from home in Dublin in front of what is likely to be a seven-figure television audience. Whatever happens, Bateson’s chance is now.

On the other hand, Conlan has had a lot of chances. A ring warrior whose heart has never been in question but for whom the volume of punishment may have become too much. Perhaps not. Perhaps ‘Irish Mick’ has one more run at the top left in him. This quality Friday night encounter will be a litmus test for those ambitions.

Conlan vs Bateson Full Card

Michael Conlan vs Jack Bateson

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Conlan vs Bateson Prediction

Conlan is the favourite and comes in with a wealth of experience at the top table of both the amateur and professional ranks. He was within seconds of a world title win over Wood. The Irish star has had to pick himself up time and again, whether from the Olympic judging controversy, the outcry over his ring walk music or the trio of stoppage defeats as a pro.

These things can weigh heavily. So far Conlan has shown broad shoulders to deal with the pressure. However, while I think ‘Irish Mick’ can compartmentalise the outside-the-ring issues, it is what happens to him between the ropes that is becoming a concern.

Conlan has only lost three times, but each saw him stopped. The beatings he has taken have retired lesser men. Eventually something has to give. I think this fight is that point. Bateson is talented and ambitious. A dangerous combination when you’re an ailing fighter reaching the end. 

Two years ago I think Conlan rolls over Bateson without breaking a sweat. But after the Lopez and Gill stoppages, piled on top of the frightening Wood KO, I am backing the Leeds man to seize this opportunity.  Bateson is 11/5 to get the win that can launch him into the mainstream.

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