Canelo vs Charlo Predictions: Back Alvarez to win on points

It’s always a huge occasion when Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is in town and Saturday night will be no different. Las Vegas will be rocking as the Mexican takes on Jermell Charlo for the undisputed Super Middleweight title. We’ve previewed the fight and given you our break down of how we think it will go down. 

Undisputed super middleweight Saul Alvarez (59-2-2 (39KOs)) and undisputed light middleweight Jermell Charlo (35-1-1 (19KOs)) face off on Sunday morning with Canelo’s four titles on the line, as the young pretender moves up two weight divisions in a bid to shock the boxing world and move into the pound-for-pound conversation.

The 33-year-old Charlo has only lost once in his career, to Tony Harrison back in 2018, a loss he avenged a year later with a knockout finish in the 11th round. While he has several good names on his boxing record, the Louisiana native has never fought anyone of the class and stature of Canelo.

The Mexican continues to put together one of the most impressive and challenging resumes the boxing world has seen in recent years, fighting the best from welterweight all the way up to light heavyweight.

Losses against Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol don’t appear to have diminished the 33-year-old’s legacy and he has just signed a three-year deal with Al Haymon to the tune of a reported $100m+.

It initially appeared as if Alvarez would be fighting Charlo’s twin brother Jermall, who is an undefeated middleweight world champion but Canelo finally settled on the undisputed Jermell – confused yet?

Canelo won’t want to overlook this fight but other huge tests remain down the line against the likes of David Benavidez and a possible rematch against Bivol.

Where and when is the fight taking place?

The fight is happening at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, in the early hours of Sunday 1st October and will be broadcast live and exclusively on DAZN in the UK and Showtime PPV in the US.

The event is a Al Haymon/Canelo co-promotion for PBC, with the show starting at around midnight and the main ring walk due to take place at around 5am UK time.

What does the full fight card look like?

• MAIN EVENT: Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo – WBA, WBC, IBF and WBO middleweight titles
• Yordenis Ugas vs Mario Barrios – WBC Interim welterweight title
• Jesus Alejandro Ramos Jr vs Erickson Lubin
• Elijah Garcia vs Jose Armando Resendiz
• Frank Sanchez vs Scott Alexander
• Oleksandr Gvozdyk vs Isaac Rodrigues
• Gabriel Gollaz Valenzuela vs Yeis Gabriel Solano
• Terrell Gausha vs KeAndrae Leatherwood
• Bek Nurmaganbet vs Abimbola Osundairo
• Abilkhan Amankul vs Joeshon James
• Justin Viloria vs Angel Barrera
• Curmel Moton vs Ezequiel Flores

(subject to change)

Who’s the favourite?

Betfred have Canelo as a big 1/4 favourite for this undisputed match-up. Charlo is as big as 3/1 with the draw at 16/1.

What’s been said?

“I feel great and ready for this fight. Jermell is right, I have nothing to prove. But this time, I have something to prove to him.

He never believed in my skills. He’s been calling me out. Now I have the opportunity to show him my skills. And that motivates me. I had a great camp and I’m ready to show everybody my new skills.

I always train 100% and motivate myself, but it’s even more for this fight. He’s called me out for a long time and I’m gonna show him what I can do in just a couple days.

He’s gonna feel it. It’s hard to explain it, but it’s just something different. He’s not used to being in there with a fighter like me.”

Canelo Alvarez

“Canelo is the kind of fighter you can’t take for granted. He’s done everything in this sport of boxing and he’s got nothing to prove.

I have so much on my plate and in order to continue my legacy, I have to be equipped with every tool. I know that the fans are gonna win on Saturday night. You’re gonna see us back again for a rematch, because this is my moment.

I’m a warrior. I did what I had to do, and now we’re at this moment. I don’t think Canelo has faced a fighter of my caliber. He’s been in there with great fighters, but there’s something I bring to the table that’s a lot different than anyone he’s seen.

I’m coming to win this fight, no matter what he says. We shall see Saturday. If he’s motivated to prove to me that he has skills, so be it. I’m coming to win.”

Jermell Charlo

Saul Alvarez to win on points – 5/6

Alvarez should have two much power and class here for a man moving up two weight classes and whilst I think Charlo will be difficult to hit initially and will provide some early problems with his speed, Canelo will eventually stop him in his tracks.

Charlo has never been stopped and Alvarez hasn’t registered a stoppage victory since beating Caleb Plant in 2021.

I expect to see a unanimous decision, with Canelo winning around 8/9 of the rounds.

Enjoy the fight!

*All prices correct at the time of writing.