Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull Predictions: Is undisputed becoming diluted?

WBC, WBA and WBO super middleweight champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez returns to the ring in search of his undisputed title on Saturday, May 3 as he fights IBF champion William Scull to retrieve what was once his. The title unification headlines at The Venue in Riyadh. DAZN PPV will screen the event live.

Here are my Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull predictions ahead of the undisputed championship showdown.

Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull Odds

Canelo is a monster 1/50 to win back his stripped IBF strap. Scull is 14/1 to keep his grip on the famous red leather, while scooping the other three titles. A stalemate is priced at 25/1.

Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull Fight Preview

We seem to have entered the second phase of boxing’s renewed obsession with undisputed title fights. For many years, the sport was blighted with fractured championships. There were belts everywhere you looked, some attached to those not quite befitting of the leather and gold.

But, partly due to Riyadh Season, and partly due to good business sense, belts have begun being unified. This prevailing trend has given us huge occasions like the Terence Crawford vs Errol Spence Jr. and Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury fights. But now we have stepped beyond four belts being used to entice the greatest and best to deliver long-awaited scraps.

Sanctioning body interference has birthed a new kind of undisputed title fight. A distortion of those best-of-the-best meetings. Now undisputed champions who have had a belt stripped (because it is physically impossible to fight four mandatory challengers at once) are now meeting the men who won their vacant crowns.

Oleksandr Usyk, the man we all witnessed become undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in the first Fury bout, is scheduled to meet IBF titleholder Daniel Dubois this summer to become undisputed champion again.

This fight is the same. Once again, it is the IBF who got trigger-happy and removed one of Canelo’s four world championship belts. Now, the Mexican pursues Scull, the man who won the unwillingly-sacrificed crown.

These fights do not fire the fans up like the true super-fights. They often feel like admin. A champion essentially getting to their mandatory a little late. Picking up the belt and “becoming” undisputed is a formality. Canelo, like Usyk, never lost his belt in the ring. You can’t become something you already are. 

But the most important question is this; is the fight any good? It isn’t bad. Scull is 32 years old and has had just 23 fights since turning over in 2016. He picked up Canelo’s vacated belt with a unanimous decision over unbeaten Russian Vladimir Shishkin. A solid win, but you used to need more to step through the ropes with Canelo.

Perhaps that is the greatest indication that Alvarez’s time at the top of his sport is at an end. In recent fights, the Mexican icon has begun taking on challengers who are a level beneath his previous quarry. If one wanted to be cruel, you could attach a caveat to every opponent Canelo has faced since his 2022 loss to Dmitry Bivol.

Some of these I find unfair, others I agree with wholeheartedly. But all of these arguments have been presented in fan and media circles over the last three years. 

Gennady Golovkin, who gave Alvarez two of his toughest challenges, was viewed as too old in their third meeting. John Ryder had five losses, including three against men Canelo had beaten. Jermell Charlo, the undisputed super welterweight king who jumped two divisions for the fight, was under-sized. Munguia, the most unfairly-criticised in my view, was seen as under-cooked. The same was thrown at Edgar Berlanga.

I will say I think the latter two fighters, while perhaps meeting Canelo a little early in their journeys, were good opponents. After all, did Alvarez not fight Floyd Mayweather while in his early-20s? But what the post-Bivol Canelo has lacked is a super-fight. His slippery defence has followed him out of the ring, as he has proven adept at avoiding a blockbuster meeting with David Benavidez. 

Scull might be older than Berlanga and Munguia, but in boxing terms at least the latter had more top-flight experience. Scull is here because he has the belt, Canelo’s belt that he never lost. Because “undisputed” is boxing’s label du jour for selling a fight. If it’s got four belts it must be good, right?

So while Canelo vs Terence Crawford takes longer to come out than Guns N’ Roses’ Chinese Democracy (but not quite as long as actual Chinese democracy), we get this fight. It will be nice to see Alvarez, it always is. We don’t have much longer left with the strident force that bridged the gap from the Mayweather/Manny Pacquiao era to today. He’s outlasted the Amir Khans, the Miguel Cottos and the Shane Mosleys. I dare say he’ll outlast William Scull, too.

Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull Full Card

Saul Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull

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Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull Prediction

We don’t know how resilient Scull is. How he reacts to a hammering. Canelo will aim to give him one, though it might not be as destructive as the roaring force of old. The Mexican legend who unified these super middleweight straps is not quite the one who defends them five years later.

Canelo is without a stoppage since he finished Caleb Plant in 11 thrilling rounds back in 2021. Does he still know how to lower the boom? Scull is awkward and tricky to look good against. But the way he inactively tucks up at times could give Canelo the openings he needs for those crushing body shots of yore.

I am feeling brave. I came in expecting to tip another points win, but I can’t see past the spaces Scull leaves. Canelo is usually someone who wears you down rather than blasts you with one shot. So I’m picking the Mexican to finish his controlled demolition in rounds 10-12 at 100/30.

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