Benavidez vs Yarde Predictions: Last chance saloon for title-hungry ‘Beast’

WBC light heavyweight champion David Benavidez takes on two-time title challenger Anthony Yarde this Saturday, November 22. The ANB Stadium in Riyadh plays host to the ‘Night of Champions’ card, a lavish event also featuring Brian Norman Jr vs Devin Haney, Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez vs Fernando Martinez and Sam Noakes vs Abdullah Mason. DAZN will screen the event live on pay-per-view.

Here are my Benavidez vs Yarde predictions.

Benavidez vs Yarde Odds

The British fighter is up against it here, with odds of 7/1 for a win. Benavidez is way out in front at 1/12 with the draw priced at 18/1.

Benavidez vs Yarde Fight Preview

This bout will be the first defence of Benavidez’s third world title. A two-time WBC kingpin at super middleweight, ‘The Mexican Monster’ picked up the WBC interim and WBA regular titles last time out, beating previously-undefeated David Morrell via decision. The interim title was upgraded when undisputed champion Dmitry Bivol vacated the full WBC championship rather than face Benavidez. It does not appear that the WBA’s secondary belt will be on the line against Yarde.

For ‘The Beast from the East’, it is a third and final chance to write the name Anthony Yarde into the history books. The Brit has fought for the world title on two separate occasions, acquitting himself well in both but emerging victorious in neither.

Yarde first faced off with a world champion back in 2019 when he faced WBO boss Sergey Kovalev. The Londoner had the favourite hurt in the middle rounds, but when the champion stayed standing he lost his way. Yarde would be knocked out in the 11th round of an absolute war. 

Four years later, the seemingly-indestructible Artur Beterbiev was the opponent for the WBC, IBF and WBO titles. Yarde boxed well early on and was leading on two judge’s cards at the time of the stoppage. The trouble was, it was Beterbiev who stopped him in the eighth round. Another creditable display in a title fight in which Yarde came home empty handed.

Benavidez does not know that old familiar sting. 30-0 with 24 knockouts, his previous world titles were lost outside of the ring. Benavidez beat Ronald Gavril for the vacant WBC 168-pound belt in 2017, before being stripped for a doping violation in 2019. After beating Anthony Dirrell impressively to regain his former crown, Benavidez lost it on the scales ahead of a defence against Roamer Alexis Angulo. 

Arguably his finest title reign was with the WBC interim super middleweight strap. Benavidez snatched that crown with a brutal third-round stoppage of David Lemieux in 2022. Successful defences against Caleb Plant and Demetrius Andrade followed. All three opponents were former world champions while the latter was undefeated. But Benavidez staked his claim admirably in beating all three and beating them well. 

The reason ‘La Bandera Roja’ could only call himself interim king during this period was one Saul Canelo Alvarez. Benavidez’s white whale, the 28-year-old has constantly called out the sport’s most bankable star. But Canelo resisted the overtures, when a stronger sanctioning body than the WBC would have dislodged their 168-pound belt from his waist. But the sanctioning body chose to keep their colours nailed to the Canelo mast and Benavidez grew weary of his own personal Moby Dick tale.

So Benavidez stepped up to 175lbs. As he always does, the ‘Mexican Monster’ went about collecting belts. Former WBC and lineal king Oleksandr Gvozdyk was beaten for the vacant WBC interim gong before unbeaten David Morrell’s WBA regular strap was added to the trophy cabinet.

The WBC have acted with more haste at light heavyweight than they were willing to muster at super-middle. Bivol was stripped of the WBC portion of his undisputed crown for electing to negotiate a trilogy fight with Beterbiev and Benavidez finally saw an interim title upgraded for the first time in three years of holding one.

Bivol is the true champion at this weight, but it is hard to begrudge Benavidez his claim. For too long he has been the one willing to make big fights while his divisions have gone on around him. One hopes that, should he win over Yarde, the victor in any eventual Bivol-Beterbiev III would see fit to accommodate him.

Yarde is not a champion but he is something of a kindred spirit. ‘The Beast’ is always keen to take big fights when they arrive and beyond the Russian pair who sit first and second, this is the biggest fight the Brit could take.

These leaps of faith do not usually end well for Yarde. But your scribe would rather a fighter reached for the moon and fell among the stars than never ventured out of the atmosphere at all. Benavidez is one small step for this man. But could it be the giant leap Anthony Yarde’s career needs?

Benavidez vs Yarde Full Card

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Jesse Rodriguez vs Fernando Martinez

Brian Norman Jr vs Devin Haney

Vito Mielnicki Jr vs Samuel Nmomah

Mohammed Alakel vs Jiaming Li

Julio Porras Ruiz vs Pius Mpenda

Sultan Almohammed vs Umesh Chavan

Benavidez vs Yarde Prediction

Is it too simplistic to say this fight will feature Yarde laying it all on the line, inflicting previously-unseen damage on a strong champion and then succumbing to a stoppage? That is the usual script for these battles.

I think Benavidez’s typical style will lend itself to Yarde having some success. The Phoenix-born Mexican likes to throw short shots before tucking up and absorbing what comes back. Yarde is a strong, natural light heavyweight and those punches are not easy to take. There will be stanzas of pure warfare here.

But Benavidez has never looked like losing. He is fresher than Kovalev and Beterbiev were when they faced Yarde. Younger, too. The challenger has been in his fair share of wars don’t forget. Those two damaging title fights. Three scraps with Lyndon Arthur, two of which were tough, distance bouts. 

I think this title match-up will provide all the entertainment it promises. There will be undulating fortunes and gumshield-nashing fury. But ultimately, I can only see one winner. I reckon Benavidez stops Yarde at 4/6.

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