Badou Jack vs Noel Mikaelian Predictions: The unbearable triteness of WBC’ing

Badou Jack defends the WBC cruiserweight championship against previous champion Noel Mikaelian this Saturday, May 3. The bout takes place on the Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull undercard at The Venue in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. DAZN PPV will screen the card live.

Here are my Badou Jack vs Noel Mikaelian predictions ahead of this cruiser clash.

Badou Jack vs Noel Mikaelian Odds

The champ, Jack, is a slight underdog at 7/5. Mikaelian is 8/13 to beat the veteran. A draw is 14/1.

Badou Jack vs Noel Mikaelian Fight Preview

Another day, another sanctioning body shoot-show. See if you can follow this mess.

Jack won the WBC cruiserweight title with a 12th-round TKO of long-time champ Ilunga Makabu in February 2023. He then vacated the belt to explore opportunities in the ridiculous bridgerweight division. Seeing sense, or perhaps just a lack of opposition, Jack returned to cruiser.

But in November 2023, Mikaelian had beaten Makabu in three rounds to claim the vacant title. The WBC, in their infinite wisdom, cited Jack’s “champion-in-recess” status and gave him his belt, which I might add another man had already won, back. Then it was Mikaelian’s turn to hold the “recess” hot potato. 

Thankfully at least, this corporate protein spill is being settled in the boxing ring. It is a strange one but not without its intrigue. Neither man has fought since 2023. Both men knocked out Makabu in that year, in their most recent fights. They’re both kind of the WBC champion, though only Jack officially. If this storyline was pitched at a WWE creative meeting, Triple H would hit the writer suggesting it with a chair.

The timeless Jack is 41 while Mikaelian is 34. Over a year, or two in Jack’s case, is not ideal preparation for a pay-per-view world title fight. But at least the mutual inactivity creates a somewhat-level playing field. 

Jack is the draw here. One of boxing’s most enduring warriors, the first generation of world-class fighters he has faced are largely retired now. Anthony Dirrell has not officially announced the end, but he hasn’t been seen since 2022. George Groves, Lucian Bute, James DeGale, Nathan Cleverly and Adonis Stevenson have all hung up the gloves. 

Those are the opponents from Jack’s first six world title fights and he has outlasted them all. It should be noted, he never lost to any of the above either. Four wins and two draws from that clutch of legends shows the mettle of the man.

Losses to Marcus Browne and Jean Pascal painted jack as yesterday’s man. But after sharpening up at a lower level, and taking a couple of undefeated records from rising prospects along the way, the Makabu opportunity presented itself. Already a former champion at super middleweight and light heavyweight, ‘The Ripper’ assured his iconic status by picking up a title in a third division.

Mikaelian is a worthy challenger, even without the fact that he should probably still be the rightful champion. The Armenian came up the hard way, racking up wins in Germany in his early years. Wins over ex-title challenger Mohamed Azzaoui and former WBA interim champion Valery Brudov.

The tests got tougher and Mikaelian picked up defeats to elite level competitors. Two-time world champion Krzysztof Wlodarczyk narrowly outpointed him via split decision. Mairis Briedis, the number-two cruiserweight of the era behind Oleksandr Usyk, scored a competitive unanimous decision victory.

Mikaelian recalibrated, moving his operation to the America where he fights out of Miami. Four wins followed, the latest of which saw him scoop the WBC title with a stunning knockout victory over Makabu. That belt was taken from him, with the WBC citing “inactivity” as the spurious cause to give the title back to Jack. The fact Mikaelian had fought more recently than Jack proves this was an act of foolishness.

But Mikaelian now gets a chance to right the record and become a two-time holder of a title he’s never lost. Is Jack slowing down? Do we see too little of him to know for sure? How will those two years out have affected his 41-year-old engine? It certainly feels like there are more questions surrounding the champion than the challenger.

You know what you are getting from Mikaelian. That German grounding shines through. Mikaelian fights very up-right, lots of jabs while trying to create openings for right hands. When his man is worn down the uppercuts come into play. Classically European, hard to beat but rarely dazzling. The sort of ringcraft that is concerned with winning fights, not popularity contests.

This well-executed orthodoxy is something Jack has largely avoided contending with. His path to title glory took in Brits, Americans, Canadians and Congolese. Cleverly was probably the closest he has met to a Noel Mikaelian. The Welsh wonder captured two world titles fighting a very straight-backed, jab-heavy style. Jack walked him down in five rounds to capture the WBA light heavyweight belt.

But can Jack employ the same relentless strategy now he is eight years older? That remains to be seen. He tangled well with Makabu, but even that was two years ago. This fight will come down largely to what Jack has left. 

Even the timeless fighters get beat. Bernard Hopkins outran Father Time until Joe Smith Jr. banged him out of the ring. George Foreman may have been unfairly outpointed by Shannon Briggs when the curtain fell, but he himself was equally fortunate to get the nod after Axel Schulz exploited his flaws two years before. Time waits for no man, even the ones who seem to openly mock it.

Badou Jack vs Noel Mikaelian Full Card

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Badou Jack vs Noel Mikaelian Predictions

I think the bell tolls for thee, Badou Jack. I have loved watching the career of one of the sport’s great, battle-hardened warriors. And I wouldn’t even put this task past him. I certainly won’t be surprised if the WBC champ retains the green and gold on Saturday.

But I am not backing it. I think Jack lacks the lustre to keep up with Mikaelian for 12 rounds. That jab in his face for 36 minutes, those uppercuts roaring in later in the fight, where you’re struggling to tuck your elbows and bring those fists up over your face for another barrage. It sounds like a nightmare for an inactive fighter competing way past the usual boxing retirement age.

There will be no shame in the result, I feel. I do not see Jack getting blasted out of there or even dominated. He will be out-scored rather than out-gunned. But I do believe Mikaelian gets his hands raised by decision at 2/1.

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