Alberto Puello vs Subriel Matias Predictions: The classic fable of the boxer vs the puncher

Alberto Puello puts his WBC super lightweight title on the line against big-punching former IBF kingpin Subriel Matias on Saturday, July 12. The 12-rounder is scheduled to take place at Louis Armstrong Stadium in Queens, New York. DAZN PPV will screen the match-up as part of the undercard for Edgar Berlanga vs Hamzah Sheeraz.

Here are my Alberto Puello vs Subriel Matias predictions ahead of this battle of elite 140-pounders.

Alberto Puello vs Subriel Matias Odds

Puello is priced at 10/11 for a victory while Matias is available at 20/21. Not much to split these two. The draw at 14/1 might appeal to the floating voters.

Alberto Puello vs Subriel Matias Fight Preview

The super lightweight division, or light welterweight division if you are a traditionalist, has enjoyed more glamorous times than this. Floyd Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao, Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto’s ghosts still haunt the corridors of the 140lb division.

The tills might not ring as loud but Puello and Matias represent two of the best of the current crop. By most metrics, Puello is the consensus number-three in the world. Teofimo Lopez is the WBO, The Ring and lineal king. The latter designation comes by virtue of him beating Josh Taylor. For those of you who vociferously maintain that Chorley’s Jack Catterall beat Taylor fair and square in their 2022 undisputed title affair, the lineage still returns to Lopez. Arnold Barboza Jr. was the next fighter to beat Jack and he then lost to Lopez in his next bout.

With the true champion a certainty, Richardson Hitchins is probably a fair shout for second in command. The IBF boss won his title by out-scoring Liam Paro and defended it by smashing George Kambosos Jr. to pieces. Paro had actually won that title off Matias before losing it to the American.

Puello is undefeated and a two-time world champion. His WBA reign in 2022 was truncated due to a failed drugs test. Wins since his return over Spanish hard-man Sandor Martin and Gary Antuanne Russell have solidified his place as the accepted third-best in the division. Russell went on to capture the WBA belt in his next fight, only strengthening Puello’s claim.

But Puello has been left wanting when it comes to widespread acclaim. Failing an anti-doping test does little to endear a boxer. But then if such a failure were fatal to a fighter’s profile then there are some very big names who would not be where they are today. 

Perhaps Puello’s leans a little technical and a little thrill-light for some. You can’t make much of a YouTube highlight reel out of 10 knockouts in 24 fights, as sad as I am that this is the way boxing is consumed by many these days. Puello is a technical southpaw who breaks hearts by standing his ground. Martin and Russell both looked surprised that their shots were parried and shrugged or sometimes even just taken on the chin as Puello planned his next move.

It doesn’t headline pay-per-views, but fighting that way does pay the bills. Whereas Matias is the quintessential big-bill fighter. While his profile might not put him on the marquee as often as it should, 22-2 with every win coming by knockout is what casual fans want to see. Either out-box him or let him rip you apart. Paro and unheralded Petros Ananyan managed to do the former, but Ananyan was pounded in nine rounds of a rematch for his troubles.

The power differential is the main intangible here. Matias hits like an 18-wheeler while Puello uses technique out of a southpaw stance. A low lead hand sees the champion take a few more shots than is necessary. Not enough to have lost a fight yet, but he does have three split decision victories in his last four outings. Three out of three if you only include world title fights, with the single unanimous nod coming in an eight-rounder against unheralded Ector Madera.

It is fascinatingly poised this one. Proof that while the stardust of old is largely gone, the super lightweight division can still throw up a thrilling proposition.

Alberto Puello vs Subriel Matias Full Card

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Alberto Puello vs Subriel Matias

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Alberto Puello vs Subriel Matias Predictions

Puello can box well enough to keep out of the way of Matias’ deadly fists. But complacency creeps into the WBC champion’s game. 

Paro took Matias’ IBF title from out of the southpaw stance. But he did have to stand and trade to do it. The Aussie is not a lethal puncher, but his 61% knockout ratio is considerably better than Puello’s 41%. It looks like warfare is out of the question.

So it is either Puello bowling the perfect game, or his chin getting a thorough examination from the division’s hardest puncher. I actually think Puello is the better all-rounder out of these two. But Matias only has to do what he’s good at perfectly once to win. Puello has to execute his gameplan for 36 minutes to get the result he needs.

For that reason I am going for the Matias knockout in this one. Puello is an excellent boxer and if he can close the one or two gaps in his game, he will walk this. But I am yet to see evidence he can avoid the sort of punishment Matias gives out over the championship distance. My pick is Matias by knockout at 7/4.

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