Akitsugi vs Astrolabio Predictions: Astrolabio’s last chance at world level?

Katsuma Akitsugi looks to take a big step towards world title contention when he faces former WBC bantamweight title challenger Vincent Astrolabio. The bout co-headlines at the RP Funding Center in Lakeland, Florida. ProBoxTV will broadcast the fight live on YouTube.

Read on for my Akitsugi vs Astrolabio predictions.

Akitsugi vs Astrolabio Odds

Akitsugi is the favourite at 2/9. Astrolabio is only a year older and has far more championship experience to his name, which makes his 18/5 price worth a look. If you cannot split them, it's 16/1 for the draw.

Akitsugi vs Astrolabio Fight Preview

California-based Japanese star Akitsugi has done alright for himself after 13 fights. The 27-year-old has won each one, albeit with only three knockouts in the process. But there have been some decent scalps in there like then-unbeaten Gregory Morales, fringe contender Jesus Ramirez Rubio and two-time WBO super flyweight challenger Aston Palicte.

Astrolabio represents his toughest test yet, with many of Akitsugi’s previous foes either being past their prime or yet to reach it. That is the natural journey of a prospect. But if you want to be more, you need opponents like Astrolabio.

The 28-year-old has had two cracks at the world title and they could not have been more contrasting. The first saw him take Jason Moloney to the limit before dropping a majority decision for the WBO bantamweight belt in May 2023. The second saw Japanese phenom Junto Nakatani knock him out in the first round of a WBC bantamweight title scrap in July of last year.

It is a sad reality that the ‘tell me the bad news’ nature of boxing means the latter result stands out more than the former. Running a talent of Moloney’s class so close in a hotly-contested fight is a rubber stamp for Astrolabio. Getting bulldozed by Nakatani is tough to take, but given the fact that the Japanese superstar is tipped as the next Naoya Inoue, it is hardly an embarrassment.

Astrolabio has tried to right the ship, scoring a first-round KO of his own over 44-year-old former top flyweight ​​Kwanpichit OnesongchaiGym. More a confidence-builder than anything, the Filipino star must do more to consign the Nakatani beating to the past.

The residue of that loss is clear in the make-up of this bout. Astrolabio has gone from challenging for a world title to being the fabled ‘first big test’ for a 13-fight prospect. It is a steep drop-off for a fighter who is still only 28 years of age. 

Astrolabio has proved capable of big results in the past. His calling card is a 2022 points win over the great Guillermo Rigondeaux. The only other men to defeat the iconic Cuban are Vasiliy Lomachenko and John Riel Casimero. That is exclusive company to keep.

Akitsugi, the ‘prospect’ facing the ‘veteran’ is only a year younger than his opponent. He is both fresher and far less seasoned. His last fight was a unanimous decision over Jonas Sultan. ‘One Punch Zorro’ gave Paul Butler a tricky night in a WBO interim title fight in 2022. But Riku Masuda did knock Sultan out in one round in his most recent fight pre-Akitsugi. Room to improve for ‘El Cuete Japonecito’.

The beauty comes in the dichotomy. Astrolabio is ranked in the WBO top-10 and IBF top-15, but is the underdog despite his world class experience. Akitsugi is yet to beat a top name, but comes in as a clear betting favourite. Either we see the first truly significant chapter in a potentially great career, or the resurrection of a championship-level force. It is all on the line in Florida.

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Akitsugi vs Astrolabio Prediction

The Rigondeaux win has relevance here for Astrolabio. Akitsugi is a tricky southpaw, just like the influential ‘El Chacal’. But Astrolabio beat Rigondeaux to the punch, shooting first as the technician set himself and assessed. That is his key to victory here. Do not let the Japanese stylist get into his rhythm. Disruption rather than destruction.

Astrolabio’s kryptonite against Nakatani was that vaunted power. Akitsugi is not a big-hitter in the same way. If the Filipino can judge distance and timing, he could win here.

But I think Akitsugi’s freshness gives him an advantage here. While Astrolabio has suffered a punishing knockout and a gruelling 12-rounder against Moloney in recent years, the 27-year-old has lived a charmed life. In a fight that I think will come down to speed and punch-picking, this difference in mileage favours Akitsugi. I’ll take El Cuete Japonecito at 2/9.

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