Tour de France Stage 18 Preview: Carapaz can hold off Pogacar charge

Stage 18 will be the third summit finish of this year’s Tour de France and race leader Tadej Pogacar has figured heavily on the previous two, winning alone at Gavarnie-Gedre on stage six and finishing a close second to Remco Evenepoel at Plateau de Solaison on stage 15.

That makes him the one to beat as usual and his huge appetite for success suggests there will be no let-up as he closes in on cementing his place among the Tour greats with his fifth overall triumph. Here are my Tour de France Stage 18 predictions.

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An alternative scenario is that Pogacar could try to set up his loyal lieutenant Isaac del Toro for a stage win, as he tried to do at Plateau de Solaison.

There will be breakaway hopes too, given that this is the easiest climbing day in the Alps and the big hitters may keep their powder dry in readiness for the fireworks to come on Alpe d’Huez.

Richard Carapaz, Davide Piganzoli and Tobias Johannessen are three likely candidates to try for a win from a breakaway.

The Route

Thursday's 185.2km stage is the opening leg of an Alpine trilogy, all with summit finishes.

The first ascent comes at 36.7km with the category 1 Cote d’Engins, followed through the middle part of the stage by the Cote de Monteynard (category 2), Cote des Terrasses (category 3) and Cote de Saint-Leger-les-Melezes (category 3).

This is perfect territory for a breakaway of around 20 riders to form, composed of high-class climbers who are not a threat in the overall classification.

The question at the end will be whether any escapees can survive on the final summit of Orcieres-Merlette, a category 1 climb of 7.1km at an average gradient of 6.7%.

Cycling Odds

Isaac del Toro to win @ 12/1

Pogacar is odds-on for the stage and by far the most likely winner if he decides to go for it. However, he could have another attempt at setting up Del Toro for victory.

Del Toro won two mountain-top finishes to claim overall victory in the Criterium du Dauphine last month and has carried that form into the Tour, lying third overall and wearing the white jersey as best young rider.

He has the ability to win a summit finish if that possibility comes his way again.

Richard Carapaz to win @ 4/1

Carapaz is 12th overall and the best-placed rider from EF Education-Easypost, traditionally one of the most strategic stage-hunting teams, and has to be a leading candidate to get in the day’s breakaway.

The Ecuadorian has finished in the top 12 on four stages this year and will have a major chance of victory if he reaches the foot of the final climb with a decent lead on the yellow jersey group.

The finish at Orcieres-Merlette is not as long or hard as the more taxing Alpine climbs and should suit Carapaz.