Tour de France Stage 10 Preview: Carapaz and Ayuso to have a big say as Pogacar aims for 24

After the first rest day in Cantal on Monday, the Tour de France resumes on Tuesday with a pretty relentless mountain stage covering 166.6km between Aurillac and Le Lioran (live from 12pm BST on TNT Sports 1, highlights from 7pm on Channel 5).

This is a day on which we should see Tadej Pogacar extend his lead in the GC on his quest for a record-equalling fifth win in the greatest of all the Grand Tours. My Tour de France Stage 10 predictions can be found below.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Guess who is the favourite. Yes, it’s Pogacar. He’s 8/11 to record a 24th career stage win at Le Tour.

Beyond him, you can get 11/1 about his UAE Team Emirates stablemate Isaac del Toro, while EF Education-EasyPost’s mountains specialist Richard Carapaz is 12/1. Two-time champion Jonas Vingegaard is 18/1.

There are a number of Betfred specials, with a market for Pogacar vs The Field. It’s EVENS for somebody not named Tadej to triumph in the stage.

Cycling Odds

I love the word undulating, but it doesn’t quite do this stage justice. For while there are plenty of ups and downs, many of them are sharp enough that they’ll decimate much of the peloton.

The climbs are seemingly endless, with seven of them categorised. It’s uphill from the start, and there’s a short burst uphill for 930m at an average 9.1% in Marcoles which ought to sift out some hopefuls at the back before they even reach any of the official mountains.

The Cote de Pailherols (Cat 3, 3.1km at 6.8%) is a mere appetiser, with the Cat 2 Col de la Griffoul likely to really force some splits on its 6km journey at 6.7%.

That’s quickly followed by the Col de Prat de Bouc (Cat 3, 3.1km at 6.1%) before a long downhill takes them to the foot of the 5.2km Cat 3 climb up the Cote de Murat, which has an average gradient of 5%.

There’s three more to come after that, including the two toughest of the day on a repeat run of the closing stages of Stage 11 in 2024, when Vingegaard claimed a rare win over Pogacar in a two-up finish.

The Cat 1 Puy Mary – Pas de Peyrol takes in 7.7km at 5.9%, with the last 2.5km sending the riders up several sections of 12% or more.

After that it’s the small matter of another Cat 1 climb up the Col de Pertus, with a 500-metre long section in excess of 12% around a quarter of the way into its 4.5 kilometres. In total it levels out to around 8.3% in grade.

There’s still the Cat 3 Col de Font de Cere, a 3.5km incline at 5.5% before a jarring uphill finish at Le Lioran.

Tadej Pogacar @ 8/11

He may have lost out to Jonas here two years ago, but he’s not the type to let the same misfortune befall him twice. And he’s only got better since then.

The super Slovenian should put some serious distance between himself and the rest long before Le Lioran, with either the Pas de Peyrol or Col du Pertus primed for him to make his break just as he did 42.7km from the flag on Stage 6 into Gavarnie-Gedre.

He’s already proved himself to have the endurance in the unbearable and unprecedented heat, which previously might have been a question mark. As a result, I have to believe he’s going to go even further ahead on GC.

Carapaz and Ayuso both to finish in Top 10 @ 2/1

I’m expecting something from Carapaz sooner or later. I tipped him at the outset to ride home in the polka-dot jersey but he’s currently on a single point in the King of the Mountains classification, 27 behind leader Pogacar.

The Ecuadorian normally has at least a couple of big mountain rides in him per Tour, and this could be the first of them given the parcours set out for Tuesday.

To add to that, Juan Ayuso has been a regular presence towards the front on high-mountain days in recent Grand Tours, so often helping to set the relentless pace that has seen his former UAE teammates pick off GC rivals and picking up 20 top-1o finishes in the three majors in total.

Now with Lidl-Trek, this ought to be a big day for the Spaniard, who placed seventh on Stage 6 and sits in fifth spot in the yellow jersey contest.

It’s 2/1 about both Carapaz and Ayuso finishing among the first 10 riders, which is more than enticing given that this is their sort of stage.