New South Wales vs Queensland RL Prediction: Nobody Koula than Tolu in Sydney opener
The three-pronged showpiece of Australian rugby league begins on Wednesday with Game 1 of the 2026 State of Origin between New South Wales and Queensland at Accor Stadium (8:05pm local, 11:05am BST, Sky Sports Action).
The Maroons are back in a familiar role as defending champions following their come-from-behind 2-1 series win in 2025. Read on for my New South Wales vs Queensland RL predictions, full team news and match odds from Betfred.
New South Wales vs Queensland RL Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publishing
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New South Wales vs Queensland RL Odds
The Blues are favourites despite having lost the shield last year, with Betfred offering 4/6 about the home side taking Game 1 just as they did at Suncorp 12 months ago.
It’s 11/8 about the Maroons carrying a lead to Melbourne, implying a 42.1% probability of Queensland winning the opener. It’s 14/1 about the initial 80 minutes ending in a draw.
Team News
New South Wales have a late worry in that Eels half-back Mitchell Moses suffered a niggle in his hamstring in training on Monday.
Head coach Laurie Daley has put Bulldogs five-eighth Matt Burton on standby in the event that Moses doesn’t make the opener after scans on Tuesday.
If Moses is out, interchange option Ethan Strange will make the start with Burton among the reserves.
Worries that opposing stand-off Cameron Munster could also be ruled out have been allayed despite the Storm half missing Queensland training at the weekend.
Munster was reduced to passing drills alone as Ezra Mam trained in his spot, but Maroons staff have insisted there is no chance of the skipper missing the trip to the Olympic Park.
New South Wales by 1-12 @ 2/1
Last year’s series felt the biggest of missed opportunities for the Blues.
They were so much better than Queensland in the opener, and after scoring first in Game 2 in Perth it seemed they were on the fast track to retained the shield.
But their first-half collapse in that game and a horrific 40 minutes in Sydney which saw them trail 20-0 at the break did for their hopes of a fifth series victory in eight years.
I just don’t see them failing again this time around. These two sides are brilliantly matched once more, but the Blues’ back division has that extra spark. That will be enough in my mind to take Game 1 and give them a second chance at seeing it over the line after their near-miss in 2025.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Tolu Koula Anytime Tryscorer @ 11/10
When you have all the greatest attacking weapons in the NRL on the same field, there are a multitude of options in the tryscorer markets.
With Brian To’o on one wing, Tolu Koula on the other, and Stephen Crichton and Kotoni Staggs in the centres, the Blues have one hell of a threequarter-line.
Yet they are up against Selwyn Cobbo, Jojo Fifita, Robert Toia and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, with Kalyn Ponga coming out the back as full-back in opposition to James Tedesco.
Any one of them could score a key try in this fixture, but it’s Koula I’m plumping for here, with his form in the centres and at full-back for Manly having shown his quality and flexibility in equal degree.
I back him to get over in the finisher’s spot for the first time in two-and-a-half years. He has three tries in four games at Test level for Tonga playing as a winger.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.
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