US PGA Championship 2026 FRL Tips: Rory to go low on Thursday?

The PGA Championship begins tomorrow at Aronimink Golf Club, where overnight rain should leave us with a receptive course in round one. With little to separate the two sides of the draw, the race for the first-round lead looks wide open.

Here are my US PGA Championship First Round Leader tips...

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Starting at 6.45am, the morning wave will tee off in cool, cloudy conditions, with a 9-11mph breeze a constant feature. As the sun comes out, temperatures will rise to around 18°C by midday. The afternoon players will get the benefit of this for much of their round, which should offset the slightly gustier winds they’re set to encounter.

There’s some light rain scheduled for each side but nothing that will cause too many problems. With that forecast, I think players from each wave are in play, though I would favour those who tee off after 8.00am to avoid the most inconvenient conditions.

2 pts Rory McIlroy each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 20/1

Start time: 8.40am

I’m going to kick things off with that morning wave, where Rory McIlroy – who begins his week just as the weather starts to pick up – is a standout candidate to make the early running. He’s already had three first-round leads in 2026, including at Augusta, and having got in some ideal prep at Quail Hollow, he’ll be primed to go in Pennsylvania.

Despite some positive results in the early weeks of the season, a withdrawal at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a 46^th-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship meant Rory entered The Masters with questions to answer. He did so emphatically, racing into a six-shot lead at the halfway point following rounds of 67 and 65, and he held on over the weekend to become just the fourth player to successfully defend the title.

The short game looked a little rusty as he returned from a month-long absence to finish 19^th last week, though he did hit the ball superbly, ranking 1^st in SG: OTT, 3^rd in GIR, and 6^th in SG: Ball Striking. His long, elite driving should be a major weapon around this layout, and as the third-best first-round performer in the field, his chances in this market are clear.

Rory led after round one of the Dubai Invitational on his first appearance of the year, repeating that at the Genesis Invitational and, as mentioned, The Masters. Having fired a superb 62 to share the first-round lead alongside Tiger Woods at Aronimink back at the 2018 BMW Championship, there’s every reason to expect him to be among the leaders on Thursday.

You can check out Jamie's full US PGA Championship Preview here...

0.75 pts Kurt Kitayama each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 60/1

Start time: 12.26pm

Kurt Kitayama was fast out of the blocks at The Masters and, with his long game remaining in great shape since, I fancy him to make a similarly positive start in our second major of the year. The fact his best PGA Championship finish came on another Donald Ross course is another huge plus, an experience that I’m hoping he can draw upon on tomorrow.

Kitayama’s runner-up finish at the Genesis Invitational earlier in the season was one piece of quality amongst generally inconsistent displays. However, arriving here after consecutive finishes of 8^th at the RBC Heritage, 9^th at the Cadillac Championship, and 19^th at the Truist Championship, he seems to have turned a corner.

Ranking 6^th in SG: Approach, 8^th in par-4 scoring, 14^th in GIR, and 19^th in driving distance on the PGA Tour, he looks an ideal fit for this test. His first-round form has also been solid, recording four top-10s, which includes opening with a three-under 69 to sit 3^rd after the first round at Augusta.

Kitayama’s only major top-25 finish came in this event at the Ross-designed Oak Hill in 2023. As the championship returns to one of the famed architect’s most famous courses, he’ll be relishing the challenge.