Riviera Maya Open 2026 Betting Tips: Linn to Grant us another win?

Nelly Korda continued her sparkling form in our first major of the year last week, producing a dominant display to record a five-shot wire-to-wire victory at the Chevron Championship.

It was her second win of a season in which she has yet to finish outside the top two, and there will be little respite for her competitors, as she again tees it up in Mexico at this week’s Riviera Maya Open.

Our LPGA golf expert Jamie Worsley is back with his usual long-read preview for the tournament. Check out his Riviera Maya Open 2026 Betting Tips below, where he has picked out five players, ranging from 35/1 to 100/1...

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You can bet on the tournament and check out the latest Riviera Maya Open 2026 Odds over on betfred.com

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The LPGA returned to Mexico for the first time since 2017 last year, with the first edition of the Riviera Maya Open at Mayakoba.

Staged at El Camaleon Golf Course – former host of the World Wide Technology Championship on the PGA Tour – Chizzy Iwai produced a commanding performance to win her first LPGA title, firing a 12-under-par total to beat Jenny Bae by six shots.

THE COURSE

El Camaleon Golf Course

• Original architect / Year opened: Greg Norman / 2004
• Par / Yardage: Par 72 / 6,583 yards
• Hole breakdown:
  • 4x par 3s (126-169 yards)
  • 10x par 4s (352-439 yards)
  • 4x par 5s (499-532 yards)
• Course style: Snaking its way through a dense mangrove forest on Mexico’s east coast, El Camaleon blends traditional parkland golf with the demands of a windy, coastal setting
• Fairways:
  • The doglegging fairways are reasonably narrow and due to a lack of roll out, the course plays longer than its yardage suggests
  • Although the rough is tame, cavernous bunkers offer protection
  • Those wayward enough to find the surrounding mangrove should reload immediately
• Greens:
  • The paspalum greens are slow, running at 10.5-11 on the Stimpmeter
  • These subtly-undulating surfaces are not too taxing to putt on and provide little punishment for missing
• Defences:
  • Water is in play on seven holes
  • Winds arriving from across the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are an ever-present threat
  • High temperatures can cause fatigue

El Camaleon is not an intimidating course if you’re in control of your golf ball, but its location brings unpredictable challenges. A combination of steady 9-11mph winds, high temperatures, and tight fairways resulted in a tougher-than-expected test last year, and with blustery conditions on the way, we could be in for another difficult week in Mexico.

THE WEATHER

It is forecast to be bright and warm throughout the event, with temperatures hitting 32°C each day. Wind speeds of around 10mph in the opening round are forecast to rise over the course of the week, blowing at a consistent 12mph and it will be accompanied by strong gusts, reaching highs of 35mph on Saturday.

KEY STATS

SG: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT) / Driving Distance

The driver was vital among the leading contenders last year. Although it feels like a venue where short but straight players can go well, the limited rough and minimal run-out in the fairways meant that length carried more importance than accuracy.

• 2025
  • Chizzy Iwai (Winner): 2^nd in SG: OTT
  • Jenny Bae (2^nd): 5^th in SG: OTT / 17^th in driving distance
  • Linn Grant (4^th): 6^th in SG: OTT / 2^nd in driving distance
  • Somi Lee (4^th): 9^th in SG: OTT
  • Weiwei Zhang (4^th): 13^th in driving distance
  • Of the top eight players, six ranked inside the top 26 for distance but only three for accuracy

SG: Around-the-Greens (SG: ATG) / Scrambling

The wind made things difficult in 2025, and with more severe conditions on the way, players are going to have to be tidy with the short game.

• 2025
  • Chizzy Iwai (Winner): 9^th in SG: ATG / 1^st in scrambling
  • Haeji Kang (3^rd): 6^th in scrambling
  • Weiwei Zhang (4^th): 7^th in SG: ATG

SG: Approach / Greens-in-Regulation (GIR)

Finally, iron play into slow, receptive greens was also key in 2025.

• 2025
  • Chizzy Iwai (Winner): 4^th in SG: Approach / 3^rd in GIR
  • Somi Lee (4^th): 3^rd in SG: Approach / 1^st in GIR
  • Linn Grant (4^th): 7^th in SG: Approach / 12^th in GIR
  • Weiwei Zhang (4^th): 11^th in SG: Approach / 8^th in GIR
  • Hye Jin Choi (4^th): 18^th in SG: Approach / 8^th in GIR

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Blue Bay LPGA (Jian Lake – Blue Bay Course)

Jian Lake’s Blue Bay Course is a coastal layout that uses paspalum throughout. The putting surfaces are large and slow, and much like this week’s venue, what it lacks in punishing rough it makes up for with deep, penal bunkers.

Notable correlating form:

• Jenny Bae: Riviera Maya (2^nd) / Blue Bay (9^th)
• Weiwei Zhang: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Blue Bay (2^nd)
• Hye Jin Choi: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Blue Bay (5^th)

Honda LPGA Thailand (Siam Country Club – Old Course)

The Old Course at Siam Country Club is another setup with paspalum fairways and sizeable greens. Whilst the scoring conditions are typically easier than what players faced in Mexico last year, some striking comp form developed between the two.

Notable correlating form:

• Chizzy Iwai: Riviera Maya (1^st) / Honda LPGA (2^nd)
• Hye Jin Choi: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Honda LPGA (3^rd)
• Jenny Shin: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Honda LPGA (4^th)
• Somi Lee: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Honda LPGA (4^th)

LOTTE Championship

With most editions played by the coast on slow paspalum surfaces, the LOTTE Championship can prove a useful guide this week.

Notable correlating form:

• Hye Jin Choi: Riviera Maya (4^th) / LOTTE (3^rd, 5^th)
• Somi Lee: Riviera Maya (4^th) / LOTTE (5^th)
• Jenny Shin: Riviera Maya (4^th) / LOTTE (6^th)

Buick LPGA Shanghai (Qizhong Garden Golf Club)

Although it’s not the most obvious comp, the similar climate and suitability to top-class, lengthy drivers allowed Qizhong Garden to establish strong form ties with El Camaleon in 2025.

Notable correlating form:

• Jenny Bae: Riviera Maya (2^nd) / Buick LPGA (4^th)
• Hye Jin Choi: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Buick LPGA (3^rd, 5^th)
• Somi Lee: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Buick LPGA (4^th)
• Jenny Shin: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Buick LPGA (7^th)

Portland Classic (Columbia Edgewater Country Club)

Lastly, Columbia Edgewater’s traditional parkland test appeared to match up well to the Riviera Maya Open host course 12 months ago.

Notable correlating form:

• Chizzy Iwai: Riviera Maya (1^st) / Portland (3^rd)
• Linn Grant: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Portland (3^rd)
• Somi Lee: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Portland (5^th)
• Weiwei Zhang: Riviera Maya (4^th) / Portland (10^th)

THE FIELD

New world No. 1 Nelly Korda is back in action after her major triumph and is the only player from the world’s top 10 in attendance. There are two further members of the top 25, in the form of Akie Iwai (No. 18) and her sister, defending champion Chizzy Iwai (No. 20).

Three-time LPGA winner Gaby Lopez is the standout home player in the field. She is joined by the top-ranked Mexican amateur Clarisa Temelo, and among the tournament invites is sixth-ranked Colombian amateur Maria Marin, who recently won the Augusta National Women’s Amateur.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Nelly Korda 2/1, Akie Iwai 13/2, Chizzy Iwai 12/1, Jin Hee Im 14/1, Minami Katsu 14/1, Gaby Lopez 18/1, Youmin Hwang 18/1

1.25 pts Linn Grant each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 35/1

Although her form figures read MC-MC-WD-MC across her last four appearances, Linn Grant still looks value in this shallow field. The driver is beginning to behave and after finishing 4^th here in 2025, we know she has the game to contend in Mexico.

Ending the previous campaign with a victory at The ANNIKA, Grant played solidly at the start of the season, finishing 10^th at the HSBC Women’s World Championship on her third outing. She hasn’t made a cut since then, but she did actually start well with a two-under 70 last week before shooting a 79 in round two.

The Swede was 5^th in SG: OTT on tour last season, and the club has begun to fire in recent starts despite the missed cuts. She’s among the longer hitters on tour, and with sound rankings of 11^th in scrambling, 45^th in SG: ATG and 59^th in SG: Approach, her game isn’t in bad shape.

Grant struck the ball beautifully on her way to finishing 4^th at El Camaleon 12 months ago and having twice hit the top 10 at the Portland Classic, this is clearly a test that suits.

1.25 pts Erika Hara each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 40/1

With three top-25s in six starts, five-time JLPGA winner Erika Hara has made a positive start to her rookie season. Her long game is a strength, and after showing promise on the paspalum surfaces at the Blue Bay LPGA, she can shine on this layout.

Hara came to the LPGA via the Epson Tour, where she won once and finished outside the top 30 on just one occasion across 18 appearances in 2025. She immediately settled into life at this level, finishing 10^th at the Blue Bay LPGA and 19^th at the Founders Cup and has continued to perform well, hitting the top 25 at the Aramco Championship and finishing 38^th at last week’s Chevron Championship.

Sitting 28^th in driving accuracy and 32^nd in distance, she’s both long and straight off the tee. Her iron play has also been strong, ranking 38^th in GIR and 49^th in SG: Approach; alongside placings of 18^th in scrambling and 34^th in SG: Putting, she has quality right through the bag.

Hara didn’t play here in 2025, but with that 10^th-place finish at Jian Lake – where she ranked 9^th in SG: Putting on the similar greens – representing an encouraging pointer, this looks an ideal chance for her to transfer her impressive winning habit to the LPGA.

1 pt Yu Liu each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 70/1

Yu Liu has looked strong from tee-to-green (T2G) at the beginning of this season, helping her to three top-20s in six starts. She narrowly missed the cut at El Camaleon in 2025 but as a proven paspalum performer, I’m confident she can improve on that effort this week.

Liu kicked off the year with a 5^th-place finish at the Blue Bay LPGA and again hit the top 20 on her next outing at the Founders Cup. A couple of missed cuts followed, but she responded with an 18^th-place finish at the JM Eagle LA Championship, and much like Grant, she started solidly last week before succumbing to the punishing demands of day two.

She’s driving it particularly well in 2026, ranking 8^th in SG: OTT, and has consistently been above average for length. Sitting inside the top 50 for both GIR and SG: ATG, her all-round T2G game is highly effective, ranking 18^th for the season.

Liu was in no kind of form when missing the cut here last year, though she only did so by one shot and returns in better shape this time around. She has finished 2^nd on paspalum at the LOTTE Championship, 5^th at the Blue Bay LPGA, and alongside two 3^rd-place finishes at the Buick LPGA Shanghai, it would be easy to make a bold case for her on comp form alone.

1 pt Weiwei Zhang each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 80/1

After finishing 4^th at the Riviera Maya Open in 2025, I fancy Weiwei Zhang to again be among the top contenders in Mexico. She excels with the driver and, having gone close at the Blue Bay LPGA to begin this season, this challenge looks a natural fit.

Opening with a six-under 66 at Jian Lake to share the first-round lead, Zhang followed with rounds of 71, 72 and 69 to finish just one shot behind eventual Blue Bay LPGA champion Mi Hyang Lee. That equalled her best ever finish on the tour and whilst she hasn’t recorded another top-20 since, she has made each of her last three cuts.

This big hitter has ranked inside the top 25 in SG: OTT in two of the last three seasons and is currently 23^rd in 2026. She typically hits plenty of greens and although the putter remains a weakness, she did rank 2^nd on the paspalum greens at Jian Lake.

In a field that doesn’t run especially deep, Zhang has the course form, comp form and skillset to put her firmly in the picture this week.

0.75 pts Peiyun Chien each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 100/1

Peiyun Chien recovered from a disappointing start at El Camaleon last year to finish an impressive 16^th. Her long game is often an asset and with several eye-catching performances at the LOTTE Championship, she can capitalise on her consistent start to this season.

Chien has made six appearances in 2026 and missed just one cut. A 15^th-place finish at the Ford Championship rates as her standout result and with her ball striking looking in fine order at the Chevron Championship, I’m keen to get her onside in this company.

Ranking 28^th, she’s thriving from tee-to-green and looks especially good around the greens, sitting 8^th. As a player who consistently ranks inside and around the top 50 in both SG: OTT and SG: Approach – and has found form in these areas recently – she’s primed to be in the mix.

Starting with a six-over 78 at this event in 2025, Chien bounced back admirably with rounds of 70, 68 and 70 to end the week in 16^th position. She’s produced finishes of 4^th, 4^th and 6^th at the LOTTE Championship and, having picked up seven wins worldwide during her career, this gives her a great opportunity to finally break her LPGA duck.

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