Valspar Championship 2026 Betting Tips: Six against the field in Florida

THE PLAYERS Championship once again lived up to its billing last week, as Cameron Young emerged victorious following a thrilling final round at TPC Sawgrass.

After 54-hole leader Ludvig Aberg succumbed to the pressure on the back nine, shooting a birdieless 40 to slip to 5^th place, it came down to a straight battle between Young and Matt Fitzpatrick. The Englishman claimed a one-shot advantage with a birdie at 15, but after both parred the par-5 16^th, Young stepped it up a notch, striping an iron into the notorious 17^th to 9 ½ feet to set up a birdie to tie the lead.

With nerves of steel, Young then launched a 375-yard drive down the perilous 18^th fairway. Fitzpatrick was unable to respond, finding the pine straw to the right, and having failed to get up and down after hitting it just short of the green in two, it left Young with a simple two-putt to claim the biggest win of his career.

That mesmerising close to the event really heightens the excitement with major season fast approaching, and with a two-week stint in Texas to come before The Masters in a month’s time, we first close out the Florida Swing with the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with six more each-way picks this week, so let's check out his Valspar Championship 2026 Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights...

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TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

The Valspar Championship was first held in 2000 and has been staged exclusively at the Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course. It has occupied this spot on the calendar, forming part of the Florida Swing, since 2007.

We have witnessed just four multiple winners of this event, with KJ Choi (2002, 2006), Retief Goosen (2003, 2009), Paul Casey (2018, 2019), and Sam Burns (2021, 2022) each recording two wins apiece.

That list of two-time champions represents the international flavour that has often been evident here, with 13 of the 24 winners coming from outside the U.S.

Last five winners:

• 2025

Winner: Viktor Hovland (-11)

Runner-up: Justin Thomas (-10)

• 2024

Winner: Peter Malnati (-12)

Runner-up: Cameron Young (-10)

• 2023

Winner: Taylor Moore (-10)

Runner-up: Adam Schenk (-9)

• 2022

Winner: Sam Burns (-17, playoff)

Runner-up: Davis Riley (-17)

• 2021

Winner: Sam Burns (-17)

Runner-up: Keegan Bradley (-14)

Viktor Hovland bounced back from a torrid missed cut at THE PLAYERS Championship the previous week to win around the Copperhead Course last year. Tied for the lead entering the final round, the Norwegian produced a sublime finish, birdying three of his final five holes to see off Justin Thomas by one shot. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course

• Original architect / Year opened: Larry Packard / 1971
• Par / Yardage: Par 71 / 7352 yards
• Hole breakdown:
  • 5x par 3s (195-235yds)
  • 9x par 4s (380-475yds)
  • 4x par 5s (560-605yds)
• Course style: A rolling parkland course that showcases a pure ball-striking test, where players must navigate tight, winding, tree-lined corridors
• Fairways:
  • Narrow, doglegging fairways overseeded with ryegrass
  • Strategically placed bunkers pinch the landing areas
  • Long, thick rough and impeding trees require players to drive it intelligently
  • Fifth-toughest driving test on the PGA Tour
• Greens:
  • Small-to-average (5,822 sq. ft.) bermudagrass greens overseeded with poa trivialis
  • Predominantly elevated and narrow/shallow in shape, they have the third-lowest greens-in-regulation (GIR) percentages on tour
  • Heavily bunkered and surrounded by thick rough
  • Though possessing some slippery downhill putts, the short-game challenge is around average in overall difficulty
• Defences:
  • Water is in play on nine holes
  • Five lengthy par 3s (ranging from 195-235 yards) demand that the long irons are dialled in
  • With thick rough, tight driving lines and greens that are hard to find, the course places strain on ball striking throughout
• Average winning score: -11.6 (last 10 editions)

The Copperhead Course is a varied and well-rounded challenge that doesn't give away birdie chances for free. Those aforementioned par 3s are tough and all about strength with the long irons; the par 5s are gettable but possess some of the narrowest fairways on the course; and while the par 4s are largely short-to-average in length, this is where water is most prevalent.

The layout is also renowned for its demanding finish, nicknamed the "Snake Pit". This stretch begins with the 475-yard par-4 16^th – a left-to-right dogleg which is guarded by water to the right. That is followed by the well-bunkered 215-yard par-3 17^th, and we finish with the 445-yard par-4 18^th, where finding the tightly-protected fairway is essential for anyone hoping to close out for victory on Sunday.

THE WEATHER

Over 20mm of rain is scheduled to fall at the beginning of the week, though fortunately, it looks set to be bright and clear during the tournament days, with temperatures averaging around 25°C.

There is also little wind in the forecast, blowing at around 8-10mph, and with potentially receptive conditions to begin, players could encounter the Copperhead Course at its tamest.

KEY STATS

SG: Approach / Greens-in-Regulation (GIR) / Proximity from 175 yards+

Approach play is key at the Copperhead Course, where players must hit the correct spots on these greens to avoid tricky downhill putts. Furthermore, due to that collection of long par 3s and the par 5s, the long irons have proven particularly vital.

• 2025
  • Viktor Hovland (Winner): 6^th in SG: Approach / 8^th in GIR
  • Bud Cauley (4^th): 2^nd in SG: Approach / 12^th in GIR
  • Ryo Hisatsune (4^th): 4^th in GIR
  • Billy Horschel (4^th): 4^th in GIR
• 2024
  • Peter Malnati (Winner): 4^th in GIR
  • Cameron Young (2^nd): 8^th in GIR
  • Chandler Phillips (3^rd): 10^th in SG: Approach
  • Ryan Moore (5^th): 2^nd in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
• 2023
  • Taylor Moore (Winner): 5^th in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
  • Jordan Spieth (3^rd): 10^th in SG: Approach / 7^th in GIR
  • Wyndham Clark (5^th): 3^rd in SG: Approach / 13^th in GIR
• 2022
  • Sam Burns (Winner): 3^rd in SG: Approach / 13^th in GIR
  • Matt NeSmith (3^rd): 1^st in SG: Approach / 1^st in GIR
  • Justin Thomas (3^rd): 2^nd in SG: Approach
• 2021
  • Sam Burns (Winner): 14^th in SG: Approach
  • Keegan Bradley (2^nd): 3^rd in SG: Approach / 3^rd in GIR
  • Viktor Hovland (3^rd): 6^th in SG: Approach

SG: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT)

As one of the toughest driving tests on tour, it's no surprise that players who excel off the tee have enjoyed success around this layout.

• 2025
  • Billy Horschel (4^th): 10^th in SG: OTT
  • Ryo Hisatsune (4^th): 13^th in SG: OTT
  • The top six all ranked inside the top 30 in SG: OTT
• 2024
  • Peter Malnati (Winner): 4^th in SG: OTT
  • Cameron Young (2^nd): 1^st in SG: OTT
  • Xander Schauffele (5^th): 5^th in SG: OTT
• 2023
  • Taylor Moore (Winner): 2^nd in SG: OTT
  • Adam Schenk (2^nd): 8^th in SG: OTT
• 2022
  • Davis Riley (2^nd): 1^st in SG: OTT
  • Justin Thomas (3^rd): 10^th in SG: OTT
• 2021
  • Sam Burns (Winner): 15^th in SG: OTT
  • Keegan Bradley (2^nd): 11^th in SG: OTT
  • Viktor Hovland (3^rd): 10^th in SG: OTT
  • Abraham Ancer (5^th): 4^th in SG: OTT

Scrambling

Lastly, with those low GIR numbers around the setup, most of the top contenders put up decent scrambling numbers.

• 2025
  • Viktor Hovland (Winner): 15^th in scrambling
  • Justin Thomas (2^nd): 12^th in scrambling
• 2024
  • Mackenzie Hughes (3^rd): 1^st in scrambling
  • Chandler Phillips (3^rd): 9^th in scrambling
  • Adam Hadwin (5^th): 4^th in scrambling
• 2023
  • Taylor Moore (Winner): 15^th in scrambling
  • Adam Schenk (2^nd): 6^th in scrambling
  • Tommy Fleetwood (3^rd): 4^th in scrambling
  • Jordan Spieth (3^rd): 9^th in scrambling
• 2022
  • Davis Riley (2^nd): 3^rd in scrambling
  • Justin Thomas (3^rd): 10^th in scrambling
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (5^th): 11^th in scrambling
• 2021
  • Sam Burns (Winner): 16^th in scrambling
  • Keegan Bradley (2^nd): 13^th in scrambling
  • Cameron Tringale (3^rd): 1^st in scrambling
  • Abraham Ancer (5^th): 5^th in scrambling

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial Country Club)

Colonial Country Club is another demanding ball-striking test on a strategic, doglegging, tree-lined course. It ranks similarly in driving, approach, and around-the-greens difficulty, whilst there are frequent iron shots between 175-200 yards.

Notable correlating form:

• Sam Burns: Valspar (1^st, 1^st) / Charles Schwab (1^st)
• Jordan Spieth: Valspar (1^st) / Charles Schwab (1^st)
• Sean O'Hair: Valspar (1^st) / Charles Schwab (2^nd)
• Adam Hadwin: Valspar (1^st) / Charles Schwab (5^th, 8^th)
• Davis Riley: Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)
• Kevin Na: Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)
• Jason Kokrak: Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)
• Boo Weekley: Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)
• Adam Schenk: Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (2^nd)
• Keegan Bradley: Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (2^nd)
• Webb Simpson: Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (3^rd, 5^th)
• Scott Stallings: Valspar (3^rd) / Charles Schwab (4^th, 4^th)
• Tommy Fleetwood: Valspar (3^rd) / Charles Schwab (4^th)
• Bud Cauley: Valspar (4^th) / Charles Schwab (3^rd)
• Ryo Hisatsune: Valspar (4^th) / Charles Schwab (6^th)

Arnold Palmer Invitational (Bay Hill)

Although it is more open, fellow Florida layout Bay Hill serves up a comparable ball-striking challenge to this week's host. It possesses the fourth-lowest GIR percentages on tour (one behind the Copperhead Course), strength with the long irons is key, and the strategically bunkered, doglegging fairways pose related questions off the tee.

Notable correlating form:

• Viktor Hovland: Valspar (1^st, 3^rd) / API (2^nd)
• Keegan Bradley: Valspar (2^nd) / API (2^nd, 3^rd)
• Kevin Na: Valspar (2^nd) / API (2^nd)
• Cameron Young: Valspar (2^nd) / API (3^rd)
• Jason Kokrak: Valspar (2^nd) / API (4^th, 6^th)
• Tommy Fleetwood: Valspar (3^rd) / API (3^rd)
• Ryan Moore: Valspar (3^rd, 5^th, 5^th) / API (4^th, 5^th)
• Billy Horschel: Valspar (4^th) / API (2^nd)
• Sungjae Im: Valspar (4^th) / API (3^rd, 3^rd)
• Bud Cauley: Valspar (4^th) / API (4^th)
• Wyndham Clark: Valspar (5^th) / API (2^nd)
• Matt Fitzpatrick: Valspar (5^th) / API (2^nd)
• Troy Merritt: Valspar (6^th, 8^th) / API (3^rd)

Truist Championship (Quail Hollow Club)

Quail Hollow is a hilly, tree-lined parkland that favours top-class ball strikers. The poa trivialis overseeded greens provide a closely-matched examination of the short game. Meanwhile, approaches from over 175 yards carry major importance.

Notable correlating form:

• Sean O'Hair: Valspar (1^st) / Quail Hollow (1^st)
• Viktor Hovland: Valspar (1^st, 3^rd) / Quail Hollow (3^rd)
• Paul Casey: Valspar (1^st, 1^st) / Quail Hollow (4^th, 5^th)
• Gary Woodland: Valspar (1^st) / Quail Hollow (4^th, 5^th)
• Kevin Streelman: Valspar (1^st) / Quail Hollow (6^th, 9^th)
• Webb Simpson: Valspar (2^nd) / Quail Hollow (2^nd, 4^th)
• Bill Haas: Valspar (2^nd) / Quail Hollow (4^th, 4^th)
• Ryan Moore: Valspar (3^rd, 5^th, 5^th) / Quail Hollow (5^th, 6^th)
• Tommy Fleetwood: Valspar (3^rd) / Quail Hollow (5^th)
• Sungjae Im: Valspar (4^th) / Quail Hollow (4^th)
• Wyndham Clark: Valspar (5^th) / Quail Hollow (1^st)
• Abraham Ancer: Valspar (5^th) / Quail Hollow (2^nd)

Genesis Invitational (Riviera Country Club)

As a traditional, tree-lined, and strategic par 71, Riviera is also worth checking out. The difficulties faced with the long game are akin to what we typically see here in Florida, and it again calls on players who excel with approaches from above 175 yards.

Notable correlating form:

• Paul Casey: Valspar (1^st, 1^st) / Genesis (2^nd)
• Sam Burns: Valspar (1^st, 1^st) / Genesis (3^rd)
• Viktor Hovland: Valspar (1^st, 3^rd) / Genesis (4^th, 5^th)
• Charl Schwartzel: Valspar (1^st) / Genesis (3^rd, 5^th)
• Adam Hadwin: Valspar (1^st) / Genesis (4^th, 6^th)
• Bill Haas: Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (1^st)
• Justin Thomas: Valspar (2^nd, 3^rd) / Genesis (2^nd)
• Kevin Na: Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th)
• Cameron Young: Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (2^nd)
• Keegan Bradley: Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (2^nd)
• Jason Kokrak: Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (2^nd)
• Patrick Cantlay: Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (3^rd, 4^th, 4^th)
• Jacob Bridgeman: Valspar (3^rd) / Genesis (1^st)
• Ryan Moore: Valspar (3^rd, 5^th, 5^th) / Genesis (4^th)
• Scott Stallings: Valspar (3^rd) / Genesis (4^th)

Texas Open (TPC San Antonio)

Last up is another pure ball-striker's course, TPC San Antonio. Driving accuracy and GIR percentages are strikingly alike, quality with the long irons is again a necessity, and the similar-sized poa trivialis overseeded greens offer up a comparable test.

Notable correlating form:

• Jordan Spieth: Valspar (1^st) / Texas (1^st)
• Sean O'Hair: Valspar (1^st) / Texas (2^nd)
• Adam Hadwin: Valspar (1^st) / Texas (4^th)
• Gary Woodland: Valspar (1^st) / Texas (6^th, 8^th)
• Kevin Streelman: Valspar (1^st) / Texas (6^th, 8^th)
• Adam Schenk: Valspar (2^nd) / Texas (5^th, 7^th)
• Ryan Moore: Valspar (3^rd, 5^th, 5^th) / Texas (3^rd, 7^th, 8^th)
• Billy Horschel: Valspar (4^th) / Texas (3^rd, 3^rd, 4^th)
• Will MacKenzie: Valspar (4^th) / Texas (2^nd)
• Ryo Hisatsune: Valspar (4^th) / Texas (5^th)
• Bud Cauley: Valspar (4^th) / Texas (5^th)
• Troy Merritt: Valspar (6^th, 8^th) / Texas (4^th)
• Matt Wallace: Valspar (7^th) / Texas (3^rd)

THE FIELD

World No. 7 Xander Schauffele is the top-ranked player in this week's field, arriving after an excellent 3^rd-place finish at TPC Sawgrass. He is the only player from the top 10 in attendance, but we do have nine of the top 25, including last week's runner-up Matt Fitzpatrick at No. 15.

Viktor Hovland is the defending champion, and he is joined by a further six former winners: Peter Malnati (2024), Taylor Moore (2023), Adam Hadwin (2017), Jordan Spieth (2015), Kevin Streelman (2013), and Gary Woodland (2011).

In addition, Justin Thomas continues his return after an extremely encouraging 8^th-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship.

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Xander Schauffele 11/1, Viktor Hovland 16/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 18/1, Justin Thomas 22/1, Akshay Bhatia 22/1, Jacob Bridgeman 22/1

1.25 pts Ryo Hisatsune each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 35/1

After threatening the places for us at big odds last week, I'm keen to take another stab at Japanese youngster Ryo Hisatsune in Florida. He found more greens than anyone at TPC Sawgrass on his way to finishing 13^th and having hit the top five at the Valspar Championship in 2025, he should be relishing teeing it up in the event in this current vein of form.

Hisatsune missed the cut at the Sony Open to begin the year but hasn't missed another since. He performed best when 2^nd at the Farmers Insurance Open, backing that up with finishes of 10^th at the Phoenix Open and 8^th at Pebble Beach. Remaining in solid form with a 45^th at Riviera and 33^rd at Bay Hill on his two prior starts, he stepped it up again to finish 13^th last week.

His ranking of 1^st in GIR at THE PLAYERS Championship should come as no surprise, as he ranks 3^rd on tour in that area this season. He's also 15^th in SG: OTT, 22^nd in SG: Approach, and positioned 14^th in par-3 scoring, this tidy short-game player is an ideal match for such an exacting layout.

Hisatsune took a shine to the Copperhead Course on debut in 2024, finishing 33^rd and built on that significantly last year to finish 4^th. He's upgraded each and every component of his game since then, and with finishes of 5^th at the Texas Open and 6^th at the Charles Schwab Challenge representing positive comp form, he looks primed for a breakthrough win.

1.25 pts Taylor Pendrith each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 40/1

Despite not hitting the top 25 since his 6^th-place finish at the season-opener in Hawaii, Taylor Pendrith has been playing better than his bare form figures suggest. He’s got the driver under control in recent appearances, and as a strong long-iron performer who is scrambling better than ever, I expect him to remedy his debut missed cut here in 2024.

Pendrith’s top-10 at the Sony Open was immediately followed by two missed cuts at The AmEx and Farmers Insurance Open. He looked better when 34^th at Pebble Beach and his 38^th-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago offered serious promise, as he ranked 1^st in GIR, 2^nd in SG: Approach, 2^nd in SG: Ball Striking and 3^rd in SG: Tee-to-Green.

The Florida-based Canadian also drove the ball much straighter there and that was again the case at TPC Sawgrass, as he ranked 4^th in SG: OTT on his way to a 46^th-place finish.

That was closer to the quality he showed with the club in 2025, as he ranked 11^th on the PGA Tour with the driver. The short game has looked super sharp this year, ranking 33^rd in scrambling, and typically excelling with the long irons, there’s a lot to like about his recent play.

Pendrith narrowly missed the cut on his first spin around the Copperhead Course in 2024, but that did come after failing to make the weekend on his three previous outings. He’s in considerably better shape this time around, and with finishes of 5^th and 10^th at Quail Hollow to call on – the first of which was at last year’s PGA Championship – I’m optimistic about his chances.

1 pt Ricky Castillo each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 55/1

Former Florida Gator Ricky Castillo recently earned his breakthrough PGA Tour success in Puerto Rico, and while he didn’t quite capitalise on that momentum at TPC Sawgrass, I’m taking him to bounce back here. He finished 12^th at the Copperhead Course on his second attempt in 2025 and as a superb driver who has made gains on the greens this year, he can go even better this week.

Castillo ended last year with a 3^rd-place finish at the RSM Classic – then his standout result on the PGA Tour – and he was rock-solid in the opening events of 2026, making each of his first three cuts. He increased his level at the Cognizant Classic, finishing 5^th, and he then produced a fine weekend display to claim the Puerto Rico Open a fortnight ago.

Coming off the back of that victory, I’m happy to forgive his 70^th-place finish at THE PLAYERS. This is down in no small part to his suitability to this test.

As with the previous season, the 25-year-old is at his best with the driver, ranking 59^th in SG: OTT. He also hits a tonne of greens, and as the 16^th-ranked scrambler in 2025, he has the short-game skills to get himself out of trouble around here.

Castillo missed the cut on his Valspar Championship debut in 2024, but he put any question marks about his ability to perform at this venue to bed 12 months ago, sharing the first-round lead before eventually finishing 12^th. He’s recorded his best performances on tour since that effort, including, of course, that victory, and residing around an hour away from this week’s venue, he can rely on home comforts this week.

1 pt Max Homa each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 60/1

Following a difficult couple of years, there have been signs that Max Homa is starting to rediscover his form at the beginning of 2026. He’s showing positives throughout the bag, has an abundance of form at comp courses, and having finished 6^th in the event on his most recent visit in 2021, he looks set to contend in Florida.

With four top-20s in his final eight starts, Homa was showing plenty of promise towards the end of 2025. He’s carried that into the new campaign, making five of his six cuts, and after producing a season’s best of 13^th at the Cognizant Classic, his game again looked sound when 32^nd at TPC Sawgrass.

He’s maintained the improvements he made with the long game over the final months of 2025, consistently gaining strokes in both SG: OTT and SG: Approach. His ranking of 4^th in approaches from 200-225 yards should come in handy on these lengthy par 3s, and with the putter ever-reliable, reasons for optimism are easy to find.

Homa missed his first three cuts at the Copperhead Course but put any concerns in relation to his suitability to perform here to rest in 2021, contending all week before finishing 6^th. Furthermore, with wins at Riviera and Quail Hollow to his name, we know he can get it done on courses with similar ball-striking demands.

1 pt Austin Smotherman each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 55/1

Arriving after finishing 13^th at THE PLAYERS, Austin Smotherman continues to impress on his return to the PGA Tour. He’s shown promise on each previous start in this tournament and leading the field in SG: Approach this year, he’s got much in his favour to land a maiden victory.

Smotherman bagged two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2025, which helped him finish 3^rd on the season-long points list and regain his PGA Tour card. He finished 8^th at The AmEx on his second start of the campaign but blew that effort out of the water at the Cognizant Classic, leading through rounds one, two and three before settling for a 2^nd-place finish on Sunday.

There was cause for worry after he withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational in round three due to a back injury. However, that looked to be a non-issue last week, producing a superb ball-striking performance – ranking 1^st in GIR and 1^st in SG: OTT – to finish 13^th.

As mentioned, he ranks 1^st on tour in SG: Approach this season and is 8^th in GIR, which no doubt helps him take care of the par 3s, ranking 6^th in par-3 scoring. He also blends accuracy with reasonable power to rank 28^th in SG: OTT, and with the addition of a top-50 ranking in scrambling, his tee-to-green prowess makes him a perfect fit for this setup.

Smotherman finished 25^th on his Valspar Championship debut in 2022 and again showing his ability to perform here when 36^th the following year, there is a huge amount of upside to this much improved player.

1 pt David Ford each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 110/1

To finish I’m going to again side with the impressive ball-striking talents of David Ford. Hailing from Georgia, he’s extremely comfortable on the East Coast and he can use that familiarity to complete a Valspar double this week, having won the prestigious Valspar Collegiate amateur event in 2025.

Ford reached No. 3 in the amateur rankings before turning pro in May last year and gained his tour card via the PGA Tour University Accelerated program. He took a little time to get up to speed, but he showed what he was all about when 3^rd at the Bank of Utah Championship, and he’s looked more at home in 2026.

His missed cut last week on his debut at THE PLAYERS Championship is easy to forgive, especially considering it was just his second in six appearances this season. He’s recorded two top-20s, finishing 13^th at The AmEx, while just two starts ago he was 16^th at the Puerto Rico Open.

Ford drove it superbly last year, and though he’s again been sound off the tee in 2026, ranking 53^rd, it’s his iron play that has really caught the eye. Not only does he rank 7^th in SG: Approach, but he’s also 17^th in GIR, and with his scrambling stats encouraging this year, he’s got his tee-to-green game in strong enough shape to go well on debut.

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