Dubai Desert Classic 2026 Betting Tips: Five against the field at the Emirates

The DP World Tour returned with a bang in the Dubai Invitational last week, where Shane Lowry’s 72^nd-hole double-bogey handed an unexpected victory to Spain’s Nacho Elvira.

We stay in Dubai this week for the Dubai Desert Classic, where a sharpened Rory McIlroy will be looking for a record-stretching fifth win in the event.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with his usual long-read preview of the event. He's picked out five players he likes the look of this week, so check out Jamie's thoughts and his Dubai Desert Classic 2025 Betting Tips below...

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*You can bet on the tournament and check out the latest Dubai Desert Classic Odds over on betfred.com

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

Debuting in 1989, the Dubai Desert Classic is one of the biggest events on the DP World Tour (DPWT) and often attracts a top-class field full of global stars. The tournament has been hosted at Emirates Golf Club in all but the 1999 and 2000 editions, which were instead staged at Dubai Invitational host, Dubai Creek Resort.

The star-studded list of former winners includes names such as Tiger Woods (2006, 2008), Seve Ballesteros (1992), Fred Couples (1995), and Jose Maria Olazabal (1998).

Ernie Els previously held the record for most wins with three (1994, 2002, 2005). However, he has since been overtaken by Rory McIlroy, who has won four times, adding back-to-back victories in 2023 and 2024 to his earlier triumphs in 2009 and 2015.

Last five winners:

• 2025

Winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-15)

Runner-up: Daniel Hillier (-14)

• 2024

Winner: Rory McIlroy (-14)

Runner-up: Adrian Meronk (-13)

• 2023

Winner: Rory McIlroy (-19)

Runner-up: Patrick Reed (-18)

• 2022

Winner: Viktor Hovland (-12, playoff)

Runner-up: Richard Bland (-12)

• 2021

Winner: Paul Casey (-17)

Runner-up: Brandon Stone (-13)

Tyrrell Hatton won his first Dubai Desert Classic title in 2025, beating overnight leader Daniel Hillier by one shot. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Emirates Golf Club – Majlis Course

• Original architect / Year opened: Karl Litten / 1988 (first all-grass course in the Middle East)
• Latest renovation: Greens were completely rebuilt in 2021 to USGA standards
• Previous tournaments: Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship (2025)
• Par / Yardage: Par 72 / 7439 yards
• Hole breakdown:
  • 4x par 3s (169-190 yards)
  • 10x par 4s (359-488 yards)
  • 4x par 5s (549-601 yards)
• Average winning score: -17.1 (last 10 editions)
• Course style: A subtly undulating and attractive desert course that flips back and forth between exposed and tree-lined holes; a demanding ball-striking test
• Fairways:
  • Narrow (among the five toughest to hit on the DP World Tour)
  • Frequent doglegs, predominantly right-to-left
  • Protected by sandy waste areas, strategic bunkers and notoriously troublesome rough
• Greens:
  • Large, slick and undulating bermudagrass surfaces
  • Mostly elevated and often at an angle to the fairway, making them tough to hold (sixth-lowest greens-in-regulation percentages)
  • Deep greenside bunkers and run-off areas present a significant challenge around the greens
• Defences:
  • Water (in play on eight holes, including the exciting par 5 18^th)
  • Routing forces players to hit shots into ever-changing wind directions
  • Thick rough punishes errant drives

Emirates Golf Club is a subtly undulating desert course that is both a demanding test of ball-striking and a fun risk/reward challenge. It culminates in a thrilling back nine, which includes three of the four par 5s, testing the players' nerve and shot-making ability to win one of the most prestigious titles on the DPWT.

THE WEATHER

This week's field will be welcomed by warm and bright weather throughout the week in Dubai, with temperatures hitting highs of 24°C. It's forecast to be rather breezy in Thursday's opening round, blowing at a constant 13mph with gusts at double that, but it dies down gradually and should have little impact over the weekend.

KEY STATS

SG: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT)

Due to the narrow, doglegging fairways and abundance of punishment, the driving test at the Majlis Course is one of the toughest around. Taking that into account, it's of little surprise to see top-class drivers lead the way.

• 2025
  • Tyrrell Hatton (Winner): 4^th in SG: OTT
  • Daniel Hillier (2^nd): 2^nd
  • Laurie Canter (3^rd): 1^st
  • Niklas Norgaard (4^th): 6^th
  • Rory McIlroy (4^th): 5^th
  • Tom McKibbin (6^th): 3^rd
• 2024
  • Rory McIlroy (Winner): 2^nd
  • Adrian Meronk (2^nd): 1^st
  • Cameron Young (3^rd): 9^th
• 2023
  • Rory McIlroy (Winner): 1^st
  • Callum Shinkwin (4^th): 7^th
• 2022
  • Viktor Hovland (Winner): 3^rd
  • Rory McIlroy (3^rd): 7^th
  • Sam Horsfield (4^th): 6^th
• 2021
  • Paul Casey (Winner): 4^th
  • Brandon Stone (2^nd): 3^rd
  • Robert MacIntyre (3^rd): 5^th
  • Laurie Canter (4^th): 8^th
  • Sergio Garcia (6^th): 1^st

SG: Approach / Greens-in-Regulation (GIR)

A strong all-round ball-striking game is a must; many top contenders here marry their quality off the tee with a top-level iron display.

• 2025
  • Tyrrell Hatton (Winner): 15^th in SG: Approach / 1^st in GIR
  • Daniel Hillier (2^nd): 11^th in SG: Approach / 11^th in GIR
  • Laurie Canter (3^rd): 10^th in SG: Approach / 4^th in GIR
• 2024
  • Rory McIlroy (Winner): 4th in SG: Approach / 9^th in GIR
  • Adrian Meronk (2^nd): 13^th in SG: Approach / 3^rd in GIR
  • Cameron Young (3^rd): 1^st in SG: Approach / 11^th in GIR
• 2023
  • Patrick Reed (2^nd): 1^st in SG: Approach
• 2022
  • Viktor Hovland (Winner): 4^th in SG: Approach / 6^th in GIR
  • Adrian Meronk (4^th): 5^th in SG: Approach
  • Justin Harding (4^th): 8^th in SG: Approach / 5^th in GIR
  • Sam Horsfield (4^th): 10^th in SG: Approach
• 2021
  • Paul Casey (Winner): 2^nd in SG: Approach / 4^th in GIR
  • Robert MacIntyre (3^rd): 7^th in GIR
  • Laurie Canter (4^th): 6^th in SG: Approach / 1^st in GIR

SG: Putting (bermudagrass)

Par 5 Scoring

Proven experience of putting on fast and undulating bermudagrass greens is another plus, whilst with three par 5s coming on the back nine, taking advantage of these holes is pivotal.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

British Masters / 2020 UK Championship (The Belfry – Brabazon Course)

The Belfry's Brabazon Course is a gently-rolling tree-lined layout that serves up one of the most demanding tests on the DPWT. It ranks closely to this week's venue in almost every aspect, possessing a comparable tee-to-green test and birdie/bogey averages.

Notable correlating form:

• Richard Bland: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / British Masters (1^st)
• Daniel Hillier: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / British Masters (1^st)
• Alex Noren: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / British Masters (1^st)
• Adrian Meronk: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / British Masters (3^rd)
• Andy Sullivan: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / British Masters (5^th, 6^th)
• Thorbjorn Olesen: Dubai Desert Classic (3^rd, 5^th) / British Masters (1^st)
• Dean Burmester: Dubai Desert Classic (3^rd) / British Masters (6^th)
• Niklas Norgaard: Dubai Desert Classic (4^th) / British Masters (1^st)
• Bernd Wiesberger: Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 6^th) / UK Championship (5^th)
• Julien Brun: Dubai Desert Classic (5^th) / British Masters (8^th)

BMW International Open (Golfclub Munchen Eichenried)

With comp form in abundance, Golfclub Munchen Eichenried is next up. Although a touch more forgiving off the tee, the course has large greens that are similar in difficulty to the Majlis Course, and it ends with an exciting risk/reward finish on a par 5 guarded by water.

Notable correlating form:

• Haotong Li: Dubai Desert Classic (1^st) / BMW International (1^st)
• Viktor Hovland: Dubai Desert Classic (1^st) / BMW International (1^st)
• Rafa Cabrera-Bello: Dubai Desert Classic (1^st, 2^nd) / BMW International (3^rd, 3^rd)
• Alvaro Quiros: Dubai Desert Classic (1^st, 3^rd) / BMW International (3^rd)
• Richard Bland: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (2^nd)
• Adrian Meronk: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / BMW International (3^rd)
• Matt Wallace: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (3^rd)
• Daniel Hillier: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (3^rd)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (3^rd)
• Alex Noren: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (4^th)
• Andy Sullivan: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / BMW International (5^th)
• Pablo Larrazabal: Dubai Desert Classic (4^th) / BMW International (1^st, 1^st)
• Alex Levy: Dubai Desert Classic (4^th) / BMW International (3^rd)
• Bernd Wiesberger: Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 6^th) / BMW International (4^th, 5^th)
• Justin Harding: Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 7^th) / BMW International (5^th)
• Sam Horsfield: Dubai Desert Classic (4^th) / BMW International (5^th)
• Chris Paisley: Dubai Desert Classic (5^th) / BMW International (3^rd)
• George Coetzee: Dubai Desert Classic (5^th, 7^th) / BMW International (3^rd)
• Shaun Norris: Dubai Desert Classic (6^th) / BMW International (5^th)

Nedbank Golf Challenge / 2020 South African Open (Gary Player Country Club)

Gary Player Country Club is another demanding ball-striking course where top-class drivers thrive. The approach-play challenge compares closely, and it possesses a near identical stroke average over the last five years.

Notable correlating form:

• Danny Willett: Dubai Desert Classic (1^st) / Nedbank (1^st)
• Haotong Li: Dubai Desert Classic (1^st) / Nedbank (4^th, 5^th)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / South African Open (1^st)
• Alex Noren: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / Nedbank (1^st)
• Andy Sullivan: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / Nedbank (3^rd)
• Matt Wallace: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / South African Open (5^th)
• Dean Burmester: Dubai Desert Classic (3^rd) / South African Open (4^th)
• Bernd Wiesberger: Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 6^th) / Nedbank (3^rd)
• Jason Scrivener: Dubai Desert Classic (6^th, 7^th) / Nedbank (3^rd)
• Dylan Frittelli: Dubai Desert Classic (6^th, 10^th) / South African Open (3^rd)
• Richie Ramsay: Dubai Desert Classic (6^th) / Nedbank (4^th)
• Shaun Norris: Dubai Desert Classic (6^th) / Nedbank (5^th)

Irish Open (K Club)

Host of the 2016, 2023, and 2025 editions of the Irish Open, the K Club can function as a helpful guide this week. This water-laden layout favours high-class drivers and asks similar questions of the players' approach play into the large, speedy greens.

Notable correlating form:

• Rafa Cabrera Bello: Dubai Desert Classic (1^st, 2^nd) / Irish Open (3^rd)
• Shaun Norris: Dubai Desert Classic (6^th) / Irish Open (9^th)
• Angel Hidalgo: Dubai Desert Classic (8^th) / Irish Open (3^rd)

Dubai Invitational (Dubai Creek Resort)

I'll finish with the host of last week's Dubai Invitational, the Dubai Creek Resort. Also designed by Karl Litten, bermudagrass covers the venue, and the ball-striking numbers in the two events held there are akin to what we typically see at Emirates Golf Club.

Notable correlating form:

• Daniel Hillier: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / Dubai Invitational (2^nd)
• Matt Wallace: Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / Dubai Invitational (7^th)
• Thorbjorn Olesen: Dubai Desert Classic (3^rd, 5^th) / Dubai Invitational (7^th, 8^th)
• Dylan Frittelli: Dubai Desert Classic (6^th, 10^th) / Dubai Invitational (10^th)

THE FIELD

World No. 2 and four-time winner of the Dubai Desert Classic, Rory McIlroy, tees it up this week after his primer in the Dubai Invitational. He's again joined by No. 3 Tommy Fleetwood in a field that includes 17 of the top 100.

Tyrrell Hatton returns to defend and is one of five former winners in attendance, alongside Rory McIlroy (2024, 2023, 2015, 2009), Viktor Hovland (2022), Danny Willett (2016), and Rafa Cabrera Bello (2012).

We have several stars from LIV in action, including top-five performers here Patrick Reed and Joaquin Niemann, whilst two-time major winner Dustin Johnson makes his debut at Emirates Golf Club.

Shane Lowry gets back on the horse after his dramatic tribulations at the 72^nd hole last week. Meanwhile, watch out for youngsters Christiaan Maas and Ethan Fang, the current No. 3 and No. 5 amateurs in the world.

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Rory McIlroy 18/5, Tommy Fleetwood 15/2, Tyrrell Hatton 14/1, Viktor Hovland 16/1, David Puig 16/1, Shane Lowry 20/1

2.5 pts Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 20/1

Rory McIlroy is obviously a huge obstacle to overcome, but having made an encouraging start to the year, I'm again taking Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen to best the Northern Irishman. He finished 10^th on debut at Emirates Golf Club in 2025 and with his tee-to-green game looking sharp on his way to a 19^th-place finish last week, this elite driver rates as a real danger.

Neergaard-Petersen enjoyed a superb and breakthrough 2025 campaign, with nine top-10s helping him towards earning PGA Tour status this year. Runner-up finishes in the Qatar Masters and Puerto Rico Open were his standout performances before he finally went one better on his final start, beating a field that included Rory McIlroy, Cam Smith and Adam Scott to claim the Australian Open trophy.

He failed to break par in the first two rounds last week, though he warmed up over the weekend, ending with rounds of 70 and 68 to finish 19^th. Despite ranking 14^th from tee-to-green, a lacklustre week on the greens stopped him from achieving a higher finish.

That said, there was nothing to cause concern there or in his game in general. Whilst he's a player who excels with the long game, ranking 6^th in SG: OTT, 17^th in GIR, and 18^th in SG: Approach on the DPWT in 2025, he also gained strokes around the greens and with the putter overall.

The Dane's tee-to-green prowess was evident at Emirates Golf Club 12 months ago, ranking 5^th when finishing 10^th – an extremely impressive debut effort around such a demanding course.

This is a part of the world where Neergaard-Petersen has looked comfortable throughout his pro career, winning the UAE Challenge on the HotelPlanner Tour in 2024. Alongside positive results at both the BMW International Open (7^th) and British Masters (13^th), he's a standout candidate in Dubai.

1 pt Ryan Fox each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 45/1

New Zealand’s Ryan Fox is a player who usually takes an event or two to get up to speed, which makes his promising return at Dubai Creek all the more eye-catching. He recorded a career-best at this venue last year, and if able to reignite his iron play, he can improve again this time around.

Fox enjoyed a fabulous second season on the PGA Tour in 2025, picking up two wins in the spring/summer. He belied a poor run of form to claim the Myrtle Beach Classic in May, and just three starts later he doubled up in the Canadian Open – both victories coming via a playoff.

A 19^th-place finish in the U.S. Open at Oakmont was his standout result thereafter. Although, he did end the year with two top-20s in three DPWT starts, which includes finishing 14^th in the Aussie Open.

He was 27^th on his return to action last week and barring a disappointing showing in approach, the rest of his game looked sound. Having excelled with his irons in 2025, ranking 15^th among the players in this field, I’m confident he can produce a stronger all-round display at Emirates Golf Club.

Fox has played here nine times, missing just two cuts and recording a best of 10^th in 2025. Finishes of 2^nd in the Nedbank, 3^rd in the BMW International Open, and 3^rd at the K Club are added pluses, suggesting he can be among the main contenders this week.

1 pt Antoine Rozner each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 66/1

Antoine Rozner’s rookie PGA Tour season ended in disappointment, as he lost his tour card. That said, he showed positive form at the end of the year and again on song in the Dubai Invitational, this fine ball-striker looks primed for a strong display.

Rozner was generally consistent last year but didn’t quite manage to threaten the top of the leaderboard enough. He missed just five cuts in 22 PGA starts, though only collected four top-25s, the last of which came in the RSM Classic – the final event of the season.

While he didn’t quite build on that on his next start in the Nedbank, he responded positively to finish 14^th in the Alfred Dunhill Championship the following week. This trend continued at Dubai Creek, where he shot rounds of 69-72-70-69 to finish 10^th.

The Frenchman maintained quality with his irons in the U.S, ranking 24^th in SG: Approach and 30^th in GIR, something he replicated last week. To complement that, he’s recently rediscovered form with his driver – another area in which he shone at Dubai Creek, displaying power and accuracy to rank 11^th in SG: OTT.

Rozner’s strength with the long game helped him to a 9^th-place finish here on debut in 2021. He hasn’t missed a cut in three subsequent appearances and again hit the top 20 when 16^th in 2024. Having also recorded his first two DPWT wins in the Middle East (the 2020 Dubai Championship and 2021 Qatar Masters) he’s clearly at ease in these desert surroundings.

1 pt Niklas Norgaard each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 80/1

Niklas Norgaard is another player who returns to full-time DPWT action after struggling to make a splash in America in 2025. He finished 4^th in this event a year ago, has winning form at one of the comp courses mentioned, and having played the sixth-best golf of anyone over the weekend last week, he’s primed to be in the mix.

Norgaard picked up just three top-25s in 20 PGA Tour starts last year, doing his best work in the Myrtle Beach Classic, where he finished 5^th. He did claim two top-20s in France and Denmark when teeing it up on the DPWT in August/September and then finished 14^th in the Bermuda Championship in the second-to-last event of the PGA season.

A pair of 76s had him sitting in 51^st out of 58 players at the halfway point at Dubai Creek. However, he improved by a massive 16 shots over the weekend, firing rounds of 66 and 70 to jump up to 33^rd.

He is one of the best drivers around, ranking 6^th in this field across the last 12 months. It was promising to see him find plenty of fairways last week and while his iron play remains an issue, he’s putting well, ranking 7^th on the bermudagrass surfaces last week.

Norgaard overcame difficulties with his irons to finish 4^th around this layout in 2025, and while it was the first time he’s contended here, he has made the cut in each of his four appearances. When considered alongside his solo DPWT win at The Belfry in 2024, this is a course that evidently suits his eye.

0.75 pts Kazuma Kobori each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 275/1

I’ve largely avoided players making their first start of the year, but I couldn’t resist having a go at Kazuma Kobori at a huge price. He’s a player who produced much of his best work on difficult ball-striking courses last year, and with his two strongest efforts coming on comp courses, he could just find this challenge to his liking.

Kobori reeled off nine top-25s in 2025 but it’s a couple of performances in the summer that really stand out. He secured his first DPWT top-five in Germany back in July, finishing 3^rd in the BMW International Open, and then went one better four starts later, finishing 2^nd at The Belfry – my top two comp events for this tournament.

The New Zealander is a precise ball-striker, ranking 2^nd in driving accuracy and 62^nd in GIR. He complements this with a tidy short game, and it’s this all-round reliability that enables him to contend on tough courses surrounded by more power-packed players.

Kobori is a former top-25 amateur and has already recorded three wins on the PGA Tour of Australia since turning pro at the end of 2023. I feel he’s sure to be a winner at this level in time, and whilst match practice and course experience may appear to be against him here, don’t be surprised to see him cause a stir at the top of the leaderboard.

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