Sony Open in Hawaii 2026 FRL Tips: Thursday morning bias appeals

The new PGA Tour season gets underway in Hawaii tomorrow and with the wind forecast to rise in the afternoon, the morning starters should hold the early advantage at Waialae Country Club.

Our resident golf tipster Jamie Worsley is here with four picks he fancies to exploit those favourable conditions in his Sony Open in Hawaii 2025 FRL Betting Tips, which you can check out below...

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There is due to be 20mm of rain on Wednesday which will leave the players with a soft, receptive course on day one. With sunshine, warm temperatures (reaching highs of 26°C), and a 9mph breeze, the morning wave should be able to reap the rewards of this. However, with those wind speeds set to increase to a constant 16mph (alongside gusts of 30mph), the afternoon wave won’t have it quite so easy.

Therefore, I’m going to focus solely on those Thursday morning tee times to try and crack the first-round leader market at the Sony Open.

1 pt Keith Mitchell each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 50/1

Start time: 7.10am

Arriving at Waialae Country Club for the ninth straight year, this is a place where Keith Mitchell is clearly very comfortable. He’s amassed several low rounds at the venue, and as one of the most reliable first-round performers about, this big-hitter can take advantage of the soft, benign conditions on Thursday morning.

Mitchell produced a couple of strong spells in 2025, looking particularly good when reeling off five top-20s on the spin in the spring. He lost his way following that, but he did end the year strong, finishing 10^th in the Baycurrent Classic and 18^th in the RSM Classic across his last three appearances.

Perhaps more importantly, he ranks 8^th in this field in first-round performances during those previous 12 months. For five straight starts, from the Valspar Championship to the Truist Championship, he sat no worse than 2^nd after day one. He claimed a share of the first-round lead at the Valspar Championship and Houston Open, before holding the solo lead after 18 holes of the Truist Championship thanks to a blistering nine-under 61.

Mitchell’s eight appearances at Waialae have resulted in six top-30s and a best of 7^th in 2022. Although he’s never taken the early lead here there has been no shortage of low numbers, including a 62 in 2021 and three 63s across other years. These scores would typically be enough for a player to contend in this market, and I’m hoping he can find another tomorrow.

1 pt Pierceson Coody each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 55/1

Start time: 8.27am

The soft conditions could well play into the hands of the longer players, and with that, I’m going to take a chance on an excellent driver in Pierceson Coody. Mixing his time between the PGA Tour and Korn Ferry Tour, he performed strongly throughout 2025. Starting that year with a fine first-round performance in The Bahamas, I’m counting on the island vibes to again spark a fast start.

Coody made just 15 starts on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and could regularly be found near the top of the leaderboard, recording seven top-10s. There was also plenty to like about his 16 PGA Tour appearances, where he went close with 3^rd-place finishes in the 3M Open and the Bank of Utah Championship.

Many of those results were engineered by positive starts, ranking 14^th in this field in round-one performance. Incredibly, he opened with an under-par round in 29 of 31 events, going best when 2^nd after the first round of The Bahamas Golf Classic on his first outing of the year. He then repeated that position in the UNC Health Championship in June.

Coody shot a 73 on his first spin around Waialae in 2024, but despite missing the cut he looked much better in round two, firing a 67. He is a considerably more consistent player now, and with those fantastic round-one scoring figures from 2025 offering major encouragement, expect him to hit the ground running in Hawaii.

0.75 pts Cam Davis each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 80/1

Start time: 7.43am

After enduring a largely disappointing 2025 campaign, Aussie Cam Davis should be relishing this week’s fresh start. There were some glimmers of hope towards the end of the previous year, especially in relation to this market, and as a former first-round leader here, it’s a course that holds positive memories.

Davis did look good at the beginning of last year, recording three top-20s in his first four starts, including a 5^th-place finish at Pebble Beach. He largely struggled outside of that, save for hitting the top 20 in the PGA Championship, though his performances Down Under in November/December offer promise.

He was bang in contention entering the final round of the Australian PGA Championship, sitting 10^th and three off the lead, before a final-round 74 saw him slip to 33^rd. Meanwhile, despite only finishing down in 61^st at the Australian Open, he was 18^th at the halfway point.

Each of those efforts was aided by a strong opening round, as he ended Thursday inside the top 15 in both. Although his season-long form was disappointing, he still managed some other noteworthy starts, finishing round one in 2^nd place at both Pebble Beach and the PGA Championship.

Since missing the cut at the Sony Open on his debut in 2019, Davis has missed just one more in six subsequent starts – his standout result a 9^th-place finish in 2020. He’s begun with an under-par round in six of his seven appearances overall and having claimed the first-round lead in 2024 after a superb eight-under 62, there is plenty of reason for optimism.

0.5 pts John VanDerLaan each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 150/1

Start time: 8.49am

I’m going to take a punt on rookie John VanDerLaan at a big price. He earned his PGA Tour card via the Korn Ferry Tour after a breakthrough victory in September, and with some eye-catching coastal form to his name, he can fly out of the blocks at Waialae Country Club.

VanDerLaan – a former top-20 amateur – has been knocking at the door for a couple of years now. During a campaign that yielded nine top-25 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour he finally won his maiden title last year, running out an impressive three-shot winner of the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. That victory was set up by a splendid nine-under 62, which saw him take the first-round lead on Thursday.

He’s a player who has shone with the driver since turning pro, combining his newfound power this year with a decent level of accuracy. That said, he’s a pretty solid all-round tee-to-green performer.

Going to college and now residing in Florida, VanDerLaan is at ease by the coast. He has continually proven this in The Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour, finishing inside the top 25 in eight of his 10 starts in those season-opening events. Having begun 2025 with a 10-under 60 to take the first-round lead in The Bahamas Golf Classic, he could spring a surprise on Thursday morning.

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