CME Group Tour Championship 2025 Betting Tips: Jamie’s four E/W Picks for the LPGA this week

The LPGA Tour puts up a bumper $11million purse this week as the top players head to Naples in Florida and the Tiburon Golf Club for the CME Group Tour Championship. 

Our LPGA golf expert Jamie Worsley is here with his usual long-read preview for the tournament. Check out his CME Group Tour Championship 2025 Betting Tips below, where he has picked out four players to back each-way ranging from 22/1 to 66/1 at the time of publication...

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After Linn Grant became the 29th unique winner of a remarkable 2025 LPGA season in last week's The ANNIKA, the tour now closes out its season at Tiburon Golf Club's Gold Course, in the 15th edition of the CME Group Tour Championship. 

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

The CME Group Tour Championship replaced the LPGA Tour Championship as the season-ending event in 2011. It has been held at Tiburon Golf Club's Gold Course since 2013. 

The tournament underwent a format change in 2019, with the Tour Championship and conclusion of the Race to CME Globe essentially becoming one and the same. All points accumulated by the players throughout the year are now set back to zero, giving each of the top 60 players on the season-long standings an equal chance of walking away with the lucrative $4million prize. 

Only two players have won this event on more than one occasion, with Lydia Ko (2014, 2022) and Jin Young Ko (2020, 2021) each winning twice at Tiburon Golf Club. 

Last five winners: 

• 2024 

Winner: Jeeno Thitikul (-22) 

Runner-up: Angel Yin (-21) 

• 2023 

Winner: Amy Yang (-27) 

Runners-up: Nasa Hataoka, Alison Lee (-24) 

• 2022 

Winner: Lydia Ko (-17) 

Runner-up: Leona Maguire (-15) 

• 2021 

Winner: Jin Young Ko (-23) 

Runner-up: Nasa Hataoka (-22) 

• 2020 

Winner: Jin Young Ko (-18) 

Runners-up: Sei Young Kim, Hannah Green (-13) 

Jeeno Thitikul fired a superb 16-under-par over the weekend to win her first Tour Championship title in 2024. She returns to defend this week having topped the Race to CME Globe rankings this year.  

THE COURSE 

The Gold Course at Tiburon Golf Club was designed by Greg Norman and opened in 1998. Aside from being the home of this event for over a decade, it also hosts the Grant Thornton Invitational – a revamped version of the QBE Shootout, where mixed two-player teams, comprising one LPGA and one PGA Tour player, compete over three days of varying stroke-play formats. 

Lengthened once again, this par-72 course now measures 6734 yards – making it the fifth-longest course played this year. It contains 4x par 3s (140-190 yards), 10x par 4s (350-425 yards), and 4x par 5s (485-580 yards). 

Typical of Florida, Tiburon's Gold Course is predominantly flat, with most holes framed by towering pine and cypress trees. It is a fun, risk/reward layout, featuring water on 13 holes, but scoring has been particularly good in recent years, averaging a winning score of -21.4 across the last five renewals. 

The fairways are some of widest and most inviting on the LPGA, and while bunkering is well placed, it is pretty limited. Meanwhile, there is no rough here, with fairways lined by coquina shell waste areas, which are littered with native plants and grasses that can leave players with extremely testing lies. 

Its undulating and elevated bermudagrass greens are large, and with much drier conditions this year, they'll hopefully run quicker than previous renewals. These surfaces are often angled to the fairway position and narrow, requiring players to produce their best iron play to access the challenging pin positions. They're guarded by penal steep-faced, sod-wall bunkers, from which it's easy to clip the lip if someone gets too greedy out of the sand. 

With four par 5s and several shorter par 4s, Tiburon sets up for the birdie-fests that we've experienced of late. That being said, the conditions do throw us a slight curveball, with a firmer course expected, and it will be interesting to see if this longer layout provides players with a more demanding test. 

THE WEATHER 

It's been dry, bright and warm in the build up to this week's event and that is forecast to continue into the tournament days, with temperatures exceeding 26°C throughout. Accompanied by an insignificant 4-6mph breeze, the competitors will relish the conditions for our season finale.  

KEY STATS 

• SG: Putting (bermudagrass) 

The greens and their surrounds are the most difficult aspect of play at Tiburon, which usually means that the short game is vital. With the firmer conditions this week putting extra demands on this area, I expect it to be all the more important. 

Jeeno Thitikul led the field in SG: Putting when winning in 2024. Her nearest challengers also putted strongly, with runner-up Angel Yin ranking 2nd on the greens, and 3rd-place finisher Lydia Ko ranking 6th. 

Our 2023 champion Amy Yang ranked 3rd in SG: Putting. Meanwhile, 2022 winner Lydia Ko ranked 2nd, as fellow top-three finishers Leona Maguire and Anna Nordqvist, ranked 3rd and 5th respectively. 

• SG: Around-the-Greens/Scrambling 

Jeeno Thitikul also placed high in scrambling last year, ranking 7th. In addition, 3rd and 4th-place finishers, Lydia Ko and Ruoning Yin, were the joint-best scramblers of the week. 

Amy Yang ranked 2nd in SG: Around-the-Greens (SG: ATG) in 2023. This was a year dominated by quality short-game players, as runners-up, Alison Lee and Nasa Hataoka, each ranked inside the top five in SG: ATG and scrambling. 

Lydia Ko's scrambling display helped her walk away with the title in 2022, ranking 5th. Runner-up Leona Maguire ranked 9th, 3rd-place finisher Anna Nordqvist ranked 2nd, and 4th-place finisher Jeongeun Lee6 ranked 1st in SG: ATG and 4th in scrambling. 

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation 

Lastly, with everyone playing lots of shots from the fairways this week, it puts added emphasis on iron play into these large, fast greens. 

Jeeno Thitikul excelled in other areas in 2024 but each of her three closest rivals ranked inside the top 10 in greens-in-regulation (GIR), and 4th-place finisher Ruoning Yin ranked 2nd in SG: Approach. 

Amy Yang ranked 5th in SG: Approach and 3rd in GIR when she won in 2023, whilst runner-up Alison Lee topped the SG: Approach rankings that year. 

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES) 

The ANNIKA (Pelican Golf Club) 

Although shorter than this week's venue, host of last week's The ANNIKA, Pelican Golf Club, acts as a great comp for this test. This flat, Floridian course has wide fairways and large, speedy bermudagrass greens. Its steep-faced bunkers are penal, and water is in play throughout. 

Notable correlating form: 

Sei Young Kim: 

Tour Championship (1st, 2nd) / The ANNIKA (1st, 2nd) 

Lexi Thompson: 

Tour Championship (1st, 2nd) / The ANNIKA (2nd, 2nd) 

Lydia Ko: 

Tour Championship (1st, 1st) / The ANNIKA (2nd, 4th) 

Charley Hull: 

Tour Championship (1st, 2nd) / The ANNIKA (2nd, 4th) 

Amy Yang: 

Tour Championship (1st) / The ANNIKA (4th) 

Nelly Korda: 

Tour Championship (2nd, 3rd, 5th) / The ANNIKA (1st, 1st, 1st) 

Alison Lee: 

Tour Championship (2nd) / The ANNIKA (2nd) 

Hannah Green: 

Tour Championship (2nd) / The ANNIKA (4th) 

Lilia Vu: 

Tour Championship (4th) / The ANNIKA (1st) 

Nataliya Guseva: 

Tour Championship (7th) / The ANNIKA (7th) 

2025 Founders Cup/2024 LPGA Drive On Championship (Bradenton Golf Club) 

Bradenton Golf Club is located just a couple of hours up the coast from Tiburon Golf Club. As with most courses in Florida it's flat, with wide fairways, bermudagrass greens, and numerous water hazards. 

Notable correlating form: 

Lydia Ko: 

Tour Championship (1st, 1st) / Bradenton (2nd) 

Jin Young Ko: 

Tour Championship (1st, 1st) / Bradenton (2nd) 

Nelly Korda: 

Tour Championship (2nd, 3rd, 5th) / Bradenton (1st) 

Hannah Green: 

Tour Championship (2nd) / Bradenton (4th) 

Megan Khang: 

Tour Championship (5th) / Bradenton (3rd, 3rd) 

Xiyu Lin: 

Tour Championship (6th) / Bradenton (4th) 

Nasa Hataoka: 

Tour Championship (9th) / Bradenton (2nd, 2nd) 

HSBC Women's World Championship (Sentosa Golf Club – Tanjong Course) 

Sentosa Golf Club's Tanjong Course is a lengthy layout with generous fairways and expansive bermudagrass greens. Water is a constant danger, and strategic bunkering adds protection. 

Notable correlating form: 

Jin Young Ko: 

Tour Championship (1st, 1st) / HSBC (1st, 1st) 

Lydia Ko: 

Tour Championship (1st, 1st) / HSBC (1st) 

Ariya Jutanugarn: 

Tour Championship (1st) / HSBC (2nd) 

Jeeno Thitikul: 

Tour Championship (1st) / HSBC (2nd, 4th) 

Charley Hull: 

Tour Championship (1st, 2nd) / HSBC (4th) 

Hannah Green: 

Tour Championship (2nd) / HSBC (1st, 2nd) 

Nelly Korda: 

Tour Championship (2nd, 3rd, 5th) / HSBC (2nd) 

Nasa Hataoka: 

Tour Championship (2nd, 2nd) / HSBC (3rd) 

Brooke Henderson: 

Tour Championship (5th, 7th, 7th) / HSBC (2nd, 4th) 

Celine Boutier: 

Tour Championship (3rd) / HSBC (2nd) 

Chevron Championship (The Club at Carlton Woods – Nicklaus Course) 

Long, flat and tree-lined, with wide fairways, vast bermudagrass greens, and water in play on half of its holes, the Nicklaus Course at Carlton Woods mirrors many aspects of play at Tiburon's Gold Course. 

Notable Correlating form: 

Ariya Jutanugarn: 

Tour Championship (1st) / Chevron (2nd) 

Amy Yang: 

Tour Championship (1st) / Chevron (4th) 

Jeeno Thitikul: 

Tour Championship (1st) / Chevron (4th) 

Nelly Korda: 

Tour Championship (2nd, 3rd, 5th) / Chevron (1st) 

Angel Yin: 

Tour Championship (2nd) / Chevron (2nd) 

Lilia Vu: 

Tour Championship (4th) / Chevron (1st) 

Ruoning Yin: 

Tour Championship (4th, 6th) / Chevron (2nd) 

Brooke Henderson: 

Tour Championship (5th, 7th, 7th) / Chevron (3rd) 

THE FIELD 

Defending champion Jeeno Thitikul arrives in Florida as the top-ranked player in the world, as well as the leading player in the Race to CME Globe standings. This year's Women's Open winner Miyu Yamashita finished 2nd in those rankings, and Minjee Lee was 3rd. 

Nataliya Guseva, Lucy Li, and Brooke Matthews each jumped inside the top 60 last week, whilst Pajaree Anannarukarn hung on to her place, and is the lucky 60th player into this week's field. 

Thitikul is one of seven former winners in attendance. She is joined by Lydia Ko (2022, 2014), Jin Young Ko (2021, 2020), Sei Young Kim (2019), Lexi Thompson (2018), Ariya Jutanugarn (2017), and Charley Hull (2016). 

There are also 14 debutants teeing it up at Tiburon. This includes the aforementioned Yamashita, former No. 1 amateur Lottie Woad, and four fellow first-time winners on tour this season: Akie Iwai, Chisato Iwai, Ingrid Lindblad, and Miranda Wang. 

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders: Jeeno Thitikul 11/2, Nelly Korda 8/1, Charley Hull 14/1, Minjee Lee 16/1, Miyu Yamashita 16/1, Sei Young Kim 18/1 

Lydia Ko 

Lydia Ko calls Florida home and her record in the state shows just how comfortable she is when the tour arrives here, recording three victories at this week's venue. She's played a limited schedule in 2025, but has only missed one of 15 cuts, and after hitting the top 10 on her most recent start in Malaysia, she's primed to finish the year in style. 

Lydia was in superb form at the beginning of the year, producing a dominant display to win the HSBC Women's World Championship on her third appearance. She was disappointing during major season, recording a best of 12th in the KPMG Women's PGA Championship, but she has looked much sharper of late, finishing 5th, 14th, and 9th on her last three LPGA starts. 

Her irons haven't been quite up to scratch this year, ranking 46th in SG: Approach. However, she has been typically superb on and around the greens, ranking 2nd in scrambling, 3rd in SG: ATG, and 3rd in SG: Putting. 

As a generally weak driver, this is a place where Ko's unmatched ability from fairway to green is allowed to shine. She's finished outside the top 10 just twice in her last 10 appearances, winning twice – in 2014 and 2022 – and she also claimed the 2023 Grant Thornton Invitational here alongside Jason Day, strengthening her already rock-solid case.  

Celine Boutier 

With seven top-10s to her name including finishes of 2nd and 3rd, Celine Boutier has done everything but win in 2025. She's developed a positive record at Tiburon in the last five years and excelling in all of the relevant areas of her game, she can end the year with a victory. 

Boutier hasn't missed a cut since the KPMG Women's PGA Championship back in June, and she has finished outside the top 25 just once in her last 11 outings. Her standout effort came at Liberty National in the Mizuho Americas Open, finishing 2nd, and three starts ago she was 3rd at the BMW Ladies Championship. 

She's putted bermudagrass greens strongly on her last two starts, helping her to finishes of 16th in the Maybank Championship and 15th in The ANNIKA. Indeed, this is an area in which she's impressed all season, ranking 27th, and alongside further rankings of 7th in scrambling, 13th in SG: Approach, and 28th in GIR, her statistical profile stands out. 

Boutier has hit the top 20 on her last five appearances in this event, recording a best of 3rd in 2021. She also finished 5th in the Grant Thornton Invitational last year alongside Matthieu Pavon and having finished 2nd in the HSBC Women's World Championship in 2024, I'm confident that she can go close at Tiburon. 

Hannah Green 

Hannah Green returned to form in East Asia and carried that positivity into last week, finishing 15th in The ANNIKA. She's a former runner-up of this event and again displaying encouraging signs with her irons at Pelican Golf Club, she's worth sticking with in Florida. 

Green began the season brightly, recording three top-10s in her first five events, but she lost form thereafter, hitting the top 20 just once in her next 11. She stopped the malaise with a 5th-place finish in the BMW Ladies Championship three starts ago, before losing a playoff to Miyu Yamashita at the Maybank Championship the following week. 

She started slowly in The ANNIKA, but responded with rounds of 66, 68, and 67 to finish 15th. Her irons showed promise, ranking 23rd in SG: Approach, and this has been a theme of recent weeks, ranking 11th in Korea and 32nd in Malaysia in the two previous tournaments. 

Green's putting is her biggest asset, ranking 30th this season, and she often looks at ease on bermudagrass surfaces. This comfort helped her to a 2nd-place finish here in 2020. She's also finished inside the top five at Bradenton Golf Club and Pelican Golf Club, and as the 2024 winner of the HSBC Women's World Championship – an event at which she finished 2nd in 2021 – her comp form adds to the positives. 

Jin Young Ko 

To finish, I'm going to take a punt on two-time Tour Championship winner Jin Young Ko. She's been disappointing after a promising start to 2025, but she did record a first top-20 since June on her latest appearance. I'm hoping the improvements shown with the putter there can spark her into life in Florida. 

Ko finished 4th in the Tournament of Champions in our season opener and backed that up with a runner-up finish at Bradenton Golf Club in the Founders Cup. She recorded another top-10 in the JM Eagle LA Championship, finishing 7th and began major season with intent, finishing 6th in the Chevron Championship and 14th in the U.S. Women's Open. 

She then lost her way through the middle part of the year, but I have been encouraged by her latest efforts on the LPGA. She's only missed one of her last five cuts and hit the top-30 on four occasions, culminating in a 19th-place finish in the BMW Ladies Championship when we last saw her. 

As an area in which she's underperformed in 2025, I was particularly impressed by the Korean's putting there, ranking 6th. If she can blend this with her excellent iron play and quality around the greens – ranking 4th in SG: Approach, 16th in scrambling, and 19th in SG: ATG this year – she'll be a dangerous challenger. 

Winning back-to-back contests in 2020 and 2021, Ko is still the only player to successfully defend this title. She's also a two-time winner of the HSBC Women's World Championship (2022 & 2023), and with her runner-up finish at Bradenton also serving her well, there are enough reasons for optimism about this classy player's chances. 

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