La Vuelta Stage 21 Predictions: Jasper and Mads to battle it out in Madrid

With the champion of the General Classification having been decided on Saturday when we got the win and place on the nose, it’s down to the sprinters to battle it out for the final honours in Stage 21 of La Vuelta a Espana on Sunday (live on TNT Sports 3 from 15:15 BST).

The 111.6km route from Alalpardo to Madrid includes a customary nine-lap circuit in the centre of the Spanish capital. My La Vuelta Stage 21 predictions follow below with all the course details and latest odds from Betfred.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

There are never any demons on the final stage of a Grand Tour because, well, nobody wants them. The riders have earned the right to coast home if they want to after three weeks of brutal parcours.

And it’s the same story on this finale. The big hope is that any protests can be accounted for on the packed streets of Madrid, since any need for the race organisers to cut out the nine loops would result in a sub-60km stage and no fan wants that.

The potential pro-Palestine demonstrations are the only thing that could stop this coming down to a contest between sprinters on the final lap.

And that’s reflected in the betting market, with Jasper Philipsen a 2/5 favourite to claim a fourth stage win of the race and a 17th in his Grand Tour career.

Ethan Vernon is a 13/2 shot, with Mads Pederson 9/1 as he aims to add to his win in Stage 15 and come home proudly as victor in the green jersey for the Points Classification.

Outside of them Elia Viviani is 11/1, Arne Marit 16/1, and both Ben Turner and Orluis Aular 20/1.

Cycling Odds

Jasper Philipen @ 2/5

To put it bluntly, something silly is going to need to happen for Philipsen not to be first across the line in Madrid.

He has showed his pedigree once more over the past three weeks, with just one disappointment of note on the way to bagging three stage wins

Only when he and teammate Edward Planckaert got their wires crossed over timing in the final 200 metres in Voiron on Stage 4 after some punishing climbs earlier in the stage did Philipsen fail to ice the sprint.

This one should fall just short of being a cakewalk, with Alpecin-Deceuninck being pretty much set up to get Philipsen into position 200 metres from the line.

Yes, it’s a 2/5 shot, and an implied 71.4% probability, but I’d even say that is on the low side since… well, he’s going to win.

Mads Pedersen E/W @ 9/1

In some senses this hasn’t been classic Mads Pedersen over the past few weeks, and yet he has sailed to the green jersey title and has seven top-10 finishes to his name.

That includes four top-three results, and while only one of those was a victory – on Stage 15 into Monforte de Lemos – he has to be one of the closest things Philipsen will see to a threat in Madrid.

I expect Lidl-Trek to do their best to give Mads the opportunity to put the frighteners up the Belgian, and while I don’t believe he’ll quite get there, the each-way bet is a great option.