La Vuelta Stage 20 Predictions: 13/2 and 7/2 picks for the brutal Bola del Mundo

With just 44 seconds separating race leader Jonas Vingegaard and his big rival for the red jersey, Joao Almeida, Saturday’s Stage 20 of La Vuelta 2025 promises to be a critical day of action (live on TNT Sports 3 from 11:45 BST).

It is widely agreed that the Dane is the second best Grand Tour rider in cycling today, but he still has work to do if he is to land his third three-week crown on Sunday. My La Vuelta Stage 20 predictions will be a choice between the two big dogs.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

There are a lot of ramps on this penultimate stage, with five categorised climbs including the summit finish on the 164.8km route from Robledo de Chabela to Bola del Mundo. Puerto de Navacerrada.

Within five kilometres of the flag drop comes the 9km climb up the Cat 3 Alto de La Escondida, with its 4.1% average gradient. And immediately from the slight descent from there comes another Cat 3 effort, the 5.8km, 5.7% Puerto de La Paradilla.

There is a further bump at an uncategorised 1.5km journey which rises at 7.1% at San Lorenzo de El Escorial before the day’s only Cat 2 climb. That is a 7.1km ramp up the Alto del Leon at an average 7.3%.

After a measure of respite over the next 50km comes the Puerto de Navacerrada for the first time. On the initial climb it is a Cat 1 effort, covering 6.9km at an average 7.5%, but then when they return for the summit finish they come at in from another of its many slopes and there’s an added kicker at the end.

Following that second ascent, there’s another three kilometres stuck on the end with a continued climb up the Bola del Mundo, with incredible ramps of between 18% and 20% in a jaw-dropping finale up to the line.

That’s why you’ll find the GC leaders hogging the top end of the betting market, with Betfred placing Vingegaard as the 7/2.

Almeida is a 5/1 chance, with Jai Hindley (fourth on GC) at 13/2, and Tom Pidcock (third) at 7/1.

Cycling Odds

Jonas Vingegaard @ 7/2

This is where we should see Vingegaard at his best. I had expected him to look to build out his lead before now but he’s just not been willing to go for broke.

But he ought to put down a marker here, and while he doesn’t necessarily have to win the stage to win La Vuelta – rather he just needs to keep Almeida from taking back those 44 seconds – there’s no way the Dane doesn’t want to make a statement.

He’s not ready to just accept that Tadej Pogacar is untouchable in the way that others have already done. And while the Slovenian isn’t in Spain this time around, everything Vingegaard does is cast into the narrative of how it relates to Pogi.

So if Vingegaard can put in a really powerful show on Saturday, then he can certainly lay claim to still having a big say in Grand Tours to come whether Pogacar is racing in them or not.

Expect Visma-Lease a Bike to do everything they can to get Jonas to the bottom of the final climb with the freshest legs and clearest mindset possible.

Jai Hindley E/W @ 13/2

If the Australian is going to make his move for a podium finish, it has to be now.

He has a 39-second gap to make up on Pidcock if he is to stand alongside Vingegaard and Almeida in Madrid, and with the final stage all about mere formalities on the flat circuits of the capital, this is his last chance.

Hindley has done a fantastic job of leading the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team on this tour, and he might need to finish off with a real feather in the cap given that he will be sharing the colours with not just Primoz Roglic but also double Olympic champion Remco Evenepoel in 2026.

So he ought to be busting a gut to get that third spot. Whether a top-three finish is enough for him to move up in the GC depends on what sort of ride Pidcock has up the Bola del Mundo, but I reckon Hindley is going to leave everything out there on that steepest of roads.

At 13/2, it’s an implied 13.3% probability that Hindley gets a top-three spot in the stage, and that sounds low to me.