La Vuelta Stage 19 Predictions: 33/1 pick to push Philipsen in Guijuelo

La Vuelta is meant to be physical testing, but it’s the mental tax that has been just as costly in the 2025 edition. A third shortened stage on Thursday, and this time in a time-trial, again compromised the final Grand Tour of the season. The hope is that Friday’s Stage 19 is an uninterrupted thriller (live on TNT Sports 3 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 22:00).

Jonas Vingegaard lost 10 seconds of his lead over Joao Almeida in the TT, and one can only imagine the extra damage that might have been done if it had been a full course. But the Portuguese will do well to gain any time on Friday, as my La Vuelta Stage 19 predictions explain.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

This isn’t the most obvious sprint stage in history, but it also comes with no real mountains to speak of.

Indeed, it comes with no categorised climbs, so while it’s not pancake-flat, there should be a few familiar sprint trains lining up to make the difference come the flamme rouge.

The course is a 161.9km effort from Rueda to Guijuelo, with one intermediate sprint after 103km at Salamanca. They’ve just added that for the Breaking Bad fans, I’m sure.

The last 25km includes a gradual climb up from Fresno Alhandiga until they begin a descent from Guijuelo five kilometres from home. The last 2.3km are on a 3% average gradient, but that shouldn’t be enough to stop the sprinters having the final say.

King among those sprinters is Jasper Philipsen. He’s the 11/10 favourite to be raising the cuddly bull at the end of the day, with Lidl-Trek’s Mads Pedersen 3/1 to cross the line first.

Ben Turner, who won Stage 4 for Ineos Grenadiers, is a 5/1, with Ethan Vernon 9/1, and it’s 20/1 bar those four.

Cycling Odds

Jasper Philipsen @ 11/8

This shouldn’t take too much explaining since the stage ought to finish with a sprint.

Philipsen has 15 Grand Tour stage wins to his name, including two at this event in 2025. He could have had three but for a miscommunication with teammate Edward Planckaert as Ben Turner stole the march in Voiron on Stage 4.

But on most days, Philipsen is the man to beat in sprint stages, and this is one of them.

It might be slightly steeper than most such finishes, but that shouldn’t be an issue for Alpecin-Deceuninck. The issues on Stage 4 were more to do with the sheer amount of climbing earlier that day, and with no categorised lumps to worry about on this stage that shouldn’t be an issue.

If it comes down to anything close to a traditional sprint finish, the Belgian should have it in the bag.

The 11/2 price carries an implied 15.4% probability, but that is doing the 28-year-old down.

Arne Marit E/W @ 33/1

Probably the most similar day of racing to Stage 19 that these riders have had so far at La Vuelta came back on Stage 8 into Zaragoza.

On that day, Philipsen was the winner. And, in the end, Arne Marit was awarded third place following the demotions of Elia Viviani and Bryan Coquard.

The 26-year-old is not an out-and-out sprinter. That moniker in the Intermarche-Wanty ranks goes to the brilliant Biniam Girmay. But he’s a one-day racer who has a good knack for providing flashes in Grand Tours.

All his best returns have come in stages like this: No massive mountains, but undulating enough late in the stage to get the rest of the field thinking. And I fancy the Belgian to place quite highly in this one.

Sure, his only top-three finish in his three Grand Tours so far was that one in Zaragoza having been promoted from fifth after the fact. But he’s had five top-10 returns and often knocks on the door.

So if there’s a slightly fractured sprint train coming to the line, don’t be surprised to see Marit elbowing his way in. And at 33/1, he’s a great each-way shot.