BMW Championship 2025 Betting Tips: Jamie makes his Each-Way Picks for this week

We are visiting Maryland this week Stateside and once again we have 2,000 FedEx Cup points up for grabs along with a whopping $20,000,000 purse. 

Our resident golf tipster Jamie Worsley is here with his thoughts ahead of the tournament in his detailed preview. He has four players to consider backing each-way this week. So check out his full BMW Championship 2025 Betting Tips and thoughts on the key golfers set to tee it up on the PGA Tour on Thursday...

*You can bet on the tournament and check out the latest BMW Championship 2025 Odds over on betfred.com

The first event of the FedExCup Playoffs – the St. Jude Championship – concluded in thrilling fashion on Sunday. After 54-hole leader Tommy Fleetwood once again faltered late on, and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler failed to stamp his authority, Justin Rose and this year's U.S. Open champion, J.J. Spaun, finished tied after 72 holes at TPC Southwind. 

Rose then sealed victory with an excellent birdie on the third playoff hole, securing his first win since 2023. The result also propelled him into second place in the European Ryder Cup standings, guaranteeing his spot on the team for New York at the end of September. 

The top 50 in the FedExCup now advance to the second event of the playoffs, which takes us to Maryland for the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club. 

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

The BMW Championship was first held in 2007 as the penultimate event of the inaugural FedExCup Playoffs – a position that it has occupied ever since. It is open to the top 50 from the FedExCup standings at the culmination of last week's St. Jude Championship.  

The top 30 in those same rankings at the end of the BMW Championship advance to East Lake and the Tour Championship next week, where an incredible $40million dollar prize purse will be on the line. 

Tiger Woods won the 2007 edition at Cog Hill Golf & Country Club and regained the title in 2009 to become the first two-time winner. Dustin Johnson (2010, 2016), Patrick Cantlay (2021, 2022), and Keegan Bradley (2018, 2024) have also won multiple BMW Championship trophies. 

Last five winners: 

• 2024 (Castle Pines Golf Club) 

Winner: Keegan Bradley (-12) 

Runners-up: Ludvig Aberg, Adam Scott, Sam Burns (-11) 

• 2023 (Olympia Fields Country Club) 

Winner: Viktor Hovland (-17) 

Runners-up: Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler (-15) 

• 2022 (Wilmington Country Club) 

Winner: Patrick Cantlay (-14) 

Runner-up: Scott Stallings (-13) 

• 2021 (Caves Valley Golf Club) 

Winner: Patrick Cantlay (-27, playoff) 

Runner-up: Bryson DeChambeau (-27) 

• 2020 (Olympia Fields Country Club) 

Winner: Jon Rahm (-4, playoff) 

Runner-up: Dustin Johnson (-4) 

Keegan Bradley is this week's defending champion after he successfully converted his 54-hole lead at Castle Pines Golf Club last year. 

THE COURSE 

Having previously hosted in 2021 – when Patrick Cantlay beat Bryson DeChambeau in a memorable six-hole playoff – Caves Valley Golf Club holds the BMW Championship for the second time this week. 

This Tom Fazio-designed course – which has also staged events on the LPGA, Champions Tour, and in the amateur ranks – opened in 1991. However, after undergoing a renovation in 2023/24, any returning players will find a slightly different course than they played in 2021. 

The renovation involved work on all bunkers and greens, with a precision air system installed under every putting surface to give organisers greater control over green speeds. They've also lengthened the first hole by 116yds, as well as adding a gentle dogleg and shifting the green. 

In addition, the par-5 2nd and 12th holes have been converted to lengthy, 520yd+ par 4s, meaning the course will play as a mammoth 7601yd par 70 this week. It possesses 4x par 3s (197-245yds), 12x par 4s (334-525yds), and 2x par 5s (590-599yds). 

Caves Valley Golf Club is a pristine and well-maintained parkland layout, providing a solid test of golf but lacks the spectacular. It is hilly, with frequent elevation changes and features creeks and marshes that come into play on five holes. 

The two nines are flipped for this event, resulting in the course traversing through a densely tree-lined landscape on the front nine, before opening up a touch on the more exciting back nine. 

Strategic bunkering frames the holes, pinching the landing areas on the already narrow fairways. Fescue rough increases the penalty for missing the short grass and with some slope, players can be left with tricky uneven lies. 

The bentgrass greens are relatively small and should be much firmer than they were four years ago. Many are multi-tiered with strong contours; protected by prominent bunkering and more of that thick rough, the venue was at its toughest around the greens in 2021. 

Not only is Caves Valley going to play as a significantly longer course this week – with nine par 4s above 460yds and three par 3s at 220yds+ – but with the changes to the greens and brighter, warmer weather on the way, it should also be considerably firmer. This will produce a more demanding test overall and we'll see nothing like Patrick Cantlay's -27 winning score in 2021. 

THE WEATHER 

It's forecast to be a hot and humid week in Maryland, with temperatures above 30C throughout. This may generate a small threat of thunderstorms, but it doesn't appear to be too severe and there is little wind scheduled. 

KEY STATS 

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance 

The driver was absolutely vital here in 2021, with seven of the top 11 ranking inside the top 10 off-the-tee (OTT), and 10 inside the top 20. With the extra yardage this time around, I expect the club to be just as important.  

Runner-up Bryson DeChambeau led the field there and also showed that length was a huge advantage, ranking 1st in driving distance. Rory McIlroy finished 4th and ranked 2nd OTT and 3rd in driving distance. Dustin Johnson in 6th ranked 4th in each area. 

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation/Proximity from 200yds+ 

Approach play wasn't especially significant in that previous renewal, but Patrick Cantlay did rank 3rd in greens-in-regulation. Meanwhile, this is a course all about the long irons, with approaches from 200yds+ the most frequent. 

• SG: Putting (bentgrass) 

• Par 4 Scoring 

The top three that year also ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th in putting, respectively, but that was on a soft, easy golf course that was home to a real birdie-fest. Therefore, it may not be as much of a necessity this year.  

Additionally, with 12 par 4s around the layout, players who excel on these holes should have an advantage. 

CORRELATING EVENTS 

We're not blessed with the benefit of a catalogue of comp form to look at for this course, so I'm going to keep it relatively light in this regard. 

That being said, I felt that host of the Memorial Tournament, Muirfield Village – a similarly lengthy, hilly course with bentgrass greens – would function as a good guide in 2021. With both the winner and runner-up, Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau, past winners there, that opinion certainly appeared to stack up. 

I would also consider looking out for form at Quail Hollow – another lengthy, hilly layout designed by Tom Fazio. It hosts the Truist Championship (formerly Wells Fargo Championship) on the PGA Tour most years and has also staged the 2017 and 2025 editions of the PGA Championship. 

Lastly, thinking of long, challenging courses with reasonably tight fairways that tend to favour strong and lengthy drivers, I feel the Farmers Insurance Open (along with the 2025 Genesis Invitational and 2021 U.S. Open) at Torrey Pines could be a useful comp. 

THE FIELD 

Rory McIlroy returns to action this week after skipping the St. Jude Championship, providing us with a complete 50-man field at Caves Valley Golf Club. Scottie Scheffler of course heads the lot as the world No. 1, and last week's St. Jude winner Justin Rose arrives as a top-10 player for the first time since 2020, now up to No. 9. 

Keegan Bradley defends the title he won at Castle Pines Golf Club in 2024. Having previously won in 2018, the two-time winner is one of seven former champions in action, alongside Viktor Hovland (2023), Patrick Cantlay (2022, 2021), Justin Thomas (2019), Jason Day (2015), Rory McIlroy (2012), and Justin Rose (2011). 

Five players jumped inside the top 50 at the culmination of the St Jude Championship. Rickie Fowler was the biggest mover, climbing 16 spots from 64th to 48th thanks to his 6th-place finish at TPC Southwind.  

Kurt Kitayama, Bud Cauley, and Jhonattan Vegas also moved inside. Meanwhile, J.T. Poston is the lucky last man in the field, with his 22nd-place finish enough to see him rise from 51st to 50th position. He replaced Min Woo Lee, who finished joint-last in Memphis. 

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders (1/5 6 places): Scottie Scheffler 5/2, Rory McIlroy 7/1, Xander Schauffele 18/1, Ludvig Aberg 18/1, Tommy Fleetwood 20/1 

Ludvig Aberg 

I'm going to take on the two at the top – Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy – with four contenders, beginning with Ludvig Aberg. He hit the ball well at TPC Southwind and with his ability to drive it long and straight, he looks tailor-made for Caves Valley Golf Club. 

It's a sign of how well he played last season that Aberg's 2025 campaign – in which he won the Genesis Invitational and has recorded eight further top-25s – has been a touch underwhelming.  

The cause of that has largely been subpar approach play in the middle part of the season. However, he's looked much better with his irons since the beginning of June – ranking 11th in this field over that time – which has contributed to him recording top-10s in the Scottish Open and St. Jude Championship across his last three starts. 

Further to that, the Swede is particularly strong with his long irons, ranking 4th on tour in proximity from 200yds+ for the season. Combined with his excellence off-the-tee, ranking 10th due to a balance of immense power and enviable accuracy, his long game is perfect for the demands of this week's test. 

That solo win of 2025 for Aberg came at the correlating Torrey Pines, where he subdued the brutish course with a high-class ball-striking display, ranking 4th off-the-tee and in ball-striking. Meanwhile, his already watertight case is strengthened by 5th and 16th-place finishes on his only two trips to Muirfield Village.  

Viktor Hovland 

I'll remain in Scandinavia for my next selection and have been tempted back in by Viktor Hovland. The Norwegian's week was over before it had really begun in Memphis, opening with a four-over 74 to six 67th of 69 players after round one. However, he responded with rounds of 68-67-67 to finish 32nd and with his long game appearing fine over those days, I'm happy to give him another shot in Maryland. 

Following a poor start to the season, Hovland has been a different player since winning the Valspar Championship back in March. He hasn't missed a cut in his last 10 events, recording five top-25 finishes and he was excellent at Oakmont in the US Open, producing an elite performance with his irons to finish 3rd. 

Indeed, it's in approach that he has excelled all season, ranking 2nd, and encouragingly for this week, he's 8th from 200yds+. The driver hasn't been as dependable a weapon as in previous years, but it's a positive to see him driving it straight at present and with the natural power he possesses, he's an ideal candidate for this revamped layout. 

As a previous winner at Muirfield Village and possessing finishes of 2nd at Torrey Pines and 3rd at Quail Hollow, that opinion is reinforced by a compelling book of comp form for Hovland.  

Harris English 

Harris English also disappointed when we were on at TPC Southwind last week. Although, the American has looked at his best on similarly lengthy, challenging courses this season, and he looks worth chancing again at Caves Valley. 

English became a five-time PGA Tour winner at Torrey Pines in the Farmers Insurance Open at the beginning of the year and has maintained form throughout the season. His major results have been especially impressive: finishing 2nd in The Open, 2nd in the PGA Championship, 12th in The Masters, and 59th at the U.S. Open.  

The putter has been his standout club in 2025, ranking 27th, but he's actually gaining strokes in every area. He was hitting his irons strongly prior to last week and delivering continually controlled performances off the tee, his all-round game is primed to handle this challenge.  

English teed it up here in 2021 and finished in a commendable 26th place. Furthermore, his form on correlating courses is more eye-catching than most, winning at Torrey Pines and finishing 2nd at Quail Hollow this year – courses at which he'd already picked up top-three finishes in previous years.  

Maverick McNealy 

Possessing top-five finishes at two of the comp courses mentioned, I was keen to get Maverick McNealy on side. He played well over the first 36 holes at TPC Southwind and driving the ball better superbly in recent weeks, I expect him to improve on his debut effort at Caves Valley. 

McNealy is playing the best golf of his career in 2025, recording six top-10s and finishing inside the top 40 at each of the majors. His best result came when he was runner-up in the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines and he has recorded additional top-five finishes in the Texas Open, RBC Heritage, and Memorial Tournament. 

He has been much improved in approach this season, ranking 49th. This is in stark contrast to positions of 118th (2024), 159th (2023), 122nd (2022), 151st (2021), and 169th (2020) in those same standings in the previous five season. 

The putter continues to be a prominent strength, ranking 31st. Whilst there are few players driving better at present, ranking 6th in this field across the last three months.  

McNealy finished 63rd here in 2021 – in just his second season on the PGA Tour. Himself and the course are much different animals this time around and with those top-five finishes at Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village to his name this season, he clearly has his game primed to tackle a setup such as this. 

Mystery Free Spins Offer:

What’s the only thing better than slots Free Spins? No deposit Free Spins, with no wagering requirements, that is what!

Opt in for the chance to win daily Free Spins prizes to play on our superb Casino Slots.

All you need to do is opt-in via the banner below, then open a Casino game every day for your chance to win up to 50 Free Spins. How many will you get? That’s the mystery!

You can access all our latest Golf Odds over on betfred.com

Find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub