Tour de France Stage 1 Predictions: Merlier should be tough to stop

The talking stops and battle commences in Northern France on Saturday as the 112th Tour de France begins with the Grand Depart in Lille. 

Reigning champion Tadej Pogacar and two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard are the key contenders for the Yellow Jersey, but stage one should see the sprinters coming to the fore, while the GC hopefuls will bid to avoid any major drama ahead of the more testing days to come. Let's take a look at the route and Joe Champion gives us his Tour de France Stage 1 Predictions...

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The Tour de France begins in Lille, and the 23 teams at the start will all be dreaming of glory in the most famous event in cycling, with some targeting more immediate success than others. 

The winner of stage 1 will get the honour of wearing the Yellow Jersey for Sunday's second stage from Lauwin-Planque to Boulogne-sur-Mer, and the odds suggest it will be one of the leading sprinters who stands atop the podium on Saturday evening. 

While the main GC contenders will have their sights set on safely negotiating the opening day, this is one for the fast riders, with Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan and Jasper Philipsen rated the three most likely winners. 

The Route 

Stage 1 of the 2025 Tour de France starts and ends in Lille. The 184.9km route loops out and back into the city, taking in Category 4 climbs at the Cote de Notre-Dame-de-Lorette, Mont Cassel and Mont Noir before a flat finish back in the city. 

While breakaway riders will look to get up the road, the fast men should have little trouble negotiating the climbs, so a bunch sprint is to be expected unless the wind manages to split the main peloton.  

Tour de France Stage 1 Odds

Tim Merlier is the betting favourite at 13/8 (more on him later) with other sprint stars Jonathan Milan (2/1) and Jasper Philipsen (4/1) at the top of the betting market in what looks highly-likely to be a day for the fast men.

Tim Merlier @ 13/8 

Tim Merlier is the favourite to take the first Yellow Jersey of the 2025 Tour, and the Belgian looks well-equipped to handle this stage regardless of any potential wind issues. 

The Belgian Soudal–Quick-Step rider has five Grand Tour stage victories to his name, including one win at the 2021 Tour de France - achieved on a similar route from Lorient to Pontivy. 

He has had an excellent year, winning twice at the Alula Tour, the UAE Tour, and Paris-Nice, then he took out the Brussels Cycling Classic in his homeland last month before winning two more stages at the Baloise Belgium Tour.  

This is the first big test for the sprinters and Merlier, who will ultimately be judged on his results at Le Tour, can lay down an early marker. 

Jordi Meeus @ 16/1 

At eye-catching each-way odds, it would be wrong to rule out the chances of Jordi Meeus, who caused a big shock when he won the closing stage of the 2023 Tour on the Champs-Elysees. 

Meeus did not ride last year's Tour, but the Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe man has shown he can win on the biggest stages in sprinting, and he returns to France having claimed a stage victory at the Tour de Suisse as well as the Copenhagen Sprint in recent weeks. 

You can check out all of our Cycling Tips as we provide stage-by-stage coverage of the 2025 Tour de France here at Betfred Insights...