MLB Betting Tips: 9/4 and 9/5 picks for pitching-dominant Monday action

Oh, to be a Major League Baseball player with those regular Mondays off. For us spectators, the good news is that there are still eight games to watch tonight and there’s a bunch of barnstormers on the slate.

The pick might be at the Rogers Centre as Max Scherzer throws against the Yankees, and that’s one of the games I’m looking at in my MLB Betting Tips for Monday.

Today’s MLB Odds

Blue Jays vs Yankees: Yankees & Under 8.5 Runs @ 9/4

Whether he’s been representing the Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets or Texas Rangers, Max Scherzer has barely put a foot wrong over his storied career.

Forever at the top end of the majors for strikeouts and wins, the 40-year-old will have been hoping to continue that incredible trend with the Toronto Blue Jays.

But just three innings into his Opening Day start against the Baltimore Orioles he had to exit with lat soreness which was later linked to a thumb issue which was to put him on the 60-day injured list.

He was back in action last Wednesday, three months on from that early end against the O’s, throwing 83 pitches in five innings of six-hit, three-run ball against the Cleveland Guardians. He spoke of feeling “a little rusty” afterwards, which is understandable given the lengthy lay-off.

Tonight (19:07 local, 00:07 BST at Rogers Centre) he goes up against the New York Yankees, who have the excellent Carlos Rodon going for them. He threw six scoreless in Cincinnati six days ago and has to be backed to go well again here given his 2.92 ERA and 9-5 record in 17 starts this season.

It will be a tough assignment for Scherzer to be at his best, but this is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer we’re talking about. As such, I reckon he’ll get through around six innings and keep the Blue Jays in the game.

But that Yankee firepower and Rodon’s great form in 2025 is leaning me towards a road win in what should be a pitching clinic for at least the first two-thirds of the game.

It’s 9/4 for a low-scoring Yankees win, implying a 30.8% probability which I think is on the generous side.

Rays vs Athletics: Both Teams To Score 2 or More – No @ 9/5

Let’s have a look at the positives for the Athletics this season.

They weren’t terrible in April. They’re not the worst team in the league (hey there, White Sox). And, while we’re clutching at straws, they are not the only homeless organisation just now.

Oh, and lefty Jacob Lopez is having quite the hot stretch.

The 27-year-old was an off-season addition from the Tampa Bay Rays – the other homeless club in 2025 – and the Athletics’ opponents on Monday night (19:35 local, 00:35 BST at George M. Steinbrenner Field).

Having done a lot of bouncing back-and-forth between the big leagues and the minors with the Rays, he was doing much the same over the first couple of months of this season until his recall in late May to plug a hole in the rotation.

And over his last four starts he has found a real groove, throwing a combined 23 innings for 14 hits, two runs (one earned) with 29 strikeouts. Not bad for a guy whose four-seam fastball just about reaches 90 miles per hour.

Against his former employers tonight, he will looking to match the superb consistency of Drew Rasmussen, who has followed a stellar May (3-2, 1.98) with a marvellous June (3-1, 2.73).

I think both of these starters are in a position to ask serious questions of the opposing batters, and even if one takes a slip off their pedestal I don’t necessarily see the other following suit.

So while it’s a bit too close to call for me to go out on a limb and pick a Rays win, I’m happy to take a look at the 9/5 for one of these sides to score fewer than two runs given the quality on the mound.

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