MLB Betting Tips: Skenes-McCullers duel to bring in 7/5 tip

We saw two tips out of two land on Monday as the Rockies claimed a rare win and the Tigers pummelled the White Sox, so we head into Tuesday full programme of MLB fixtures with a streak to maintain.

While the big clash of the night is a repeat of last year’s ALCS between the Guardians and the Yankees, my eyes are drawn by the NL Rookie of the Year heading to the bump in Pittsburgh. Here are my MLB Betting Tips for Tuesday.

Today’s MLB Odds

Pirates v Astros: Under 6.5 Total Runs @ 7/5

It says much about the Pittsburgh Pirates’ direction of travel that Paul Skenes’ last four appearances have seen him go just 0-1 despite a brilliant ERA of 1.01.

The superstar Rookie of the Year for 2024 has started this season as he left off last, recording a 2.15 ERA in his 12 games to date. But the Pirates aren’t built for contention right now and sit 15.5 games back in an NL Central which isn’t exactly the strongest division in baseball.

One constant for the Buccos, though, is Skenes, with the 23-year-old having allowed only three runs in 26.2 innings over his last four starts. If he can deliver another outing like that tonight (18:40 local, 23:40 BST at PNC Park), then there won’t be much for the Houston Astros offence to pounce on.

Opposing Skenes is Lance McCullers Jr, who is four weeks removed from the injured list and gradually upping his workload. The judgement call on this one is whether McCullers can match Skenes, but his 12 strikeouts in his last outing against the Athletics suggests he’s getting closer to his best and I think this will be a low-scoring clash as a result.

The bullpens might be the biggest threat to this bet coming through. But the under on 6.5 at 7/5 and an implied 41.7% probability gives the replacements a little leeway so long as McCullers and Skenes pitch as expected.

Nationals v Cubs: Cubs Over 4.5 Runs @ 8/11

For full disclosure, I am sat right now wearing my Cubs hat, jersey, pyjama bottoms and ‘2016 World Series Champions’ foam finger (metaphorically, at least). But my dedication to the Cubbie cause has meant I’ve seen a whole lot of runs scored so far in 2025.

They head to Nationals Park to face the Washington Nationals (18:40 local, 23:40 BST) with the best runs-per-game tally in the Major Leagues, and their knack for come-from-behind victories is somewhat uncanny.

With excellent plate discipline, they are seeing off even the better opposing starters early and making hay late in games. This was never better evidenced than in their two stunning comeback wins in Cincinnati recently when they turned 6-2 and 8-3 deficits into 13-6 and 11-8 wins respectively.

Tonight Craig Counsell gives the ball to rookie right-hander Cade Horton, who has shown great consistency so far in compiling a 2-0 record with a 3.98 ERA since his call-up from AAA Iowa.

In opposition is former Cubbie Trevor Williams (3-5, 5,69), who was traded away from Wrigley Field along with Javier Baez when Pete Crow-Armstrong was snapped up back in 2021.

And it’s fair to say that while PCA has been mentioned in early MVP talk this year, the Nationals right-hander has struggled to keep batters at bay but for his last outing when throwing six scoreless innings against the Mariners.

I think we’ll see Williams revert to type here against a Cubs batting line-up which may or may not have Kyle Tucker on board as he is currently day-to-day with a ring-finger injury.

The way the Cubs are playing, the 8/11 and its implied 57.9% probability is a little light given they have cleared 4.5 runs 31 times in 59 games this season despite having played 29 of those at the notoriously wind-affected Friendly Confines.

You can read all our latest MLB Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.