Manny Pacquiao vs Mario Barrios Odds: ‘Pacman’ aims to make history and capture WBC title

Manny Pacquiao returns to the ring on July 19 to face WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios. The fight tops the bill at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, marking the 16th time ‘Pacman’ will fight at the venue.The fight looks set to land on Prime Video PPV.

Here is a look at the early Manny Pacquiao vs Mario Barrios odds ahead of one of the year’s more unusual world title fights.

When I first moved over to Betfred Insights from my previous role, there were certain things I never expected. The assignment was to bring you the latest odds, tips and predictions for boxing bouts big and small. There would be little in the way of column inches spent on the icons of the sport’s rich past. 

Six months ago I wrote an honest-to-god preview for a Mike Tyson fight. I must admit, given the fact ‘Iron’ Mike retired when I was 16, I had not assumed such a chance would present itself at the age of 35. But it did, as painful as the fight was to watch.

Now I find myself speculating on how Manny Pacquiao might get on as he approaches his in-ring return in two months. If I’m sitting here assessing ‘Sugar’ Ray Leonard’s chances as he fights for the world middleweight title any time soon, I might pull my one remaining hair out.

But alas, like that playground rumour about Marilyn Manson’s ribs, Pacquiao will just not go away. The legendary ring icon and former pound-for-pound leader is 46 years old now and has not competed in a professional fight since 2021. ‘Pacman’ bowed out that year after losing his WBA welterweight championship to Yordenis Ugas, a merely-functional fighter who would not have gotten close to the Filipino legend in his prime.

But despite not having a professional win since his 2019 split nod over Keith Thurman, the World Boxing Council have installed Pacquiao as their fifth-ranked contender in the welterweight division. The WBC does have form for this. The distributors of that famous green belt saw fit to rank Francis Ngannou as the 10th-best heavyweight on the planet off the back of losing to Tyson Fury in his sole professional fight. 

Pacquiao fighting for a world championship in 2025 does not make sense. But it does make cents. Mario Barrios is not going to secure a bigger or more lucrative fight than this, despite being WBC champion. Number-one contender Devin Haney seems disinterested in fighting him. Soulemayne Cissokho is a good fighter but not a box office draw. The Frenchman just beat Egidijus Kavaliauskas, who sits third in the rankings. Fourth-placed Conor Benn would make for the best fight and he did target Barrios on social media earlier this year. But with ‘The Destroyer’ heading for a rematch with Chris Eubank Jr., the cupboard is bare.

‘Pacman’, a former Filipino presidential candidate, has seized on this vacuum with a politician’s savvy. 

In the welterweight era Pacquiao excelled in, there was no way a 46-year-old was getting anywhere near a title shot. Not with the likes of himself, perennial rival Floyd Mayweather, Miguel Cotto, Ricky Hatton, Shane Mosley and Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez queuing up to fight each other for the crown.

But Pacquiao has spotted a compliant sanctioning body and what he will deem a beatable champion in Barrios. To be honest, any of the other belt-flinging organisations would have rolled over and let Manny tickle their tummy too. But when the IBF and WBA champion is Jaron ‘Boots’ Ennis and the WBO kingpin is Brian Norman Jr., you can forgive the middle-aged eight-weight world champion for skipping those assignments.

This harsh appraisal of Barrios is how Pacquiao and those with a stake in this fight will try and convert non-believers. It is true that most of Barrios’ best wins have been done better by others. He was the first of three men to out-score Olympian Batyr Akhmedov. The third of four to out-point Fabian Maidana. He got to Ugas two years after the Cuban busted the ghost of Pacquiao and one year after Errol Spence Jr. had already knocked him out. 

The powers that be will regale you with tales of Barrios’ last fight, where he was dropped and taken to a draw by Abel Ramos, who had lost three of his last five outings. The more wicked storytellers might even allege Ramos had done less to warrant that title shot than Pacquiao has his. 

Feats like this are not without precedent. The example you will hear most often is that of George Foreman, who won the heavyweight championship at the age of 45. But anyone comparing Foreman to Pacquiao is neglecting to mention that ‘Big’ George had been back in the ring for seven years when he knocked out Michael Moorer. His second coming was 31-fights in, three of which had been for world titles.

The other example invoked is the one man who has held a world title while older than Pacquiao is now. Bernard Hopkins reigned as WBA and IBF light heavyweight king aged 49, three years older than our legendary subject. But the grand old ‘Executioner’ did not have a lay-off to contend with. Hopkins was a fighter that peaked late rather than one who retired before returning years later.

Barrios is not the best world champion in boxing, or even in his division. But he is a 29-year-old fighter who has fought five times since we last saw Pacquiao in a pro boxing match. Admittedly, the two best fighters he has faced have beaten him. Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis stopped him in 11 rounds while Keith Thurman out-scored him over 12. But this is still a fighter who has amassed top-flight experience and remains in his physical prime. 

I also don’t think you have to be a world class fighter to beat a 46-year-old Manny Pacquiao. The Filipino superstar has fought in two exhibition bouts since his official retirement. DK Yoo, a martial arts influencer, did little to trouble him. But professional K1 kickboxer Rukiya Anpo made Pacquiao look old and slow in a boxing-rules exhibition. 

Manny looked like his body was no longer capable of summoning the sharp reflexes required to obey his supreme boxing brain. Anpo stood six-foot-tall, the largest fighter Pacquiao had ever faced. But it was less about what he did and more what ‘Pacman’ did not do. Pacquiao’s absence of timing and sharpness made the exhibition an uncomfortable watch. The version of the man that lost to Ugas had lost a yard. This iteration had lost a mile. 

I came out of that event having no desire to see Pacquiao in any sort of combat sports environment again. I did, however, expect to see him back. I believed it would be in the sort of influencer/crossover environment his eternal enemy Mayweather has used to swell his bank balance. Show a couple of the old moves against a Love Islander or a distant Paul cousin and take home seven figures. Nice work if you can get it.

I fear this fight will not be nice, but it will be work, even for those of us charged with watching it. Pacquiao was swinging at shadows against Anpo, who has never had a professional boxing match in his life. It is telling that talk of a potential Barrios fight was already rife then. It almost feels like Pacquiao and the WBC waited 10 months for the memories of that poor display to fade before circling back.

Barrios is the 1/4 favourite in the early odds. His age and activity make this a prerequisite. Pacquiao is 3/1 to get the job done. His name is doing the heavy-lifting there. But you can’t wrap your hands with a reputation before throwing a punch. Achievements do not protect chins. 

The draw is 16/1. Barrios is coming off a stalemate and it would not be at all surprising to see a sympathetic judge or two try and save Pacquiao’s blushes. I just hope the worst that happens to the great Manny is a few blushes and a night best forgotten, rather than one where he does not emerge the same. 

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.