US PGA Championship 2025 Tips: Can Rory go back-to-back at Quail Hollow?

Our second major of the season has arrived and after Rory McIlroy’s memorable victory at Augusta, it has a tough act to follow. Nevertheless, the PGA Championship possesses the strongest field in the game, and we will no doubt be in for an exciting week in North Carolina, at Quail Hollow Club.

Our star golf tipster Jamie Worsley will have his hands full this week, as he will be providing first round leader, specials and in-play tips, as well as his famous long-read preview. He has picked out five golfers he likes the look of, but can any of them stop grand-slam winning McIlroy in his tracks? Here is his US PGA Championship 2025 Betting Tips...

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

The PGA Championship was established in 1916 and has been held almost every year since, with the exception of 1917-18 and 1943. It began as a match play event but switched to stroke play in 1958.

Walter Hagen dominated the early years of the championship, first winning in 1921 and then claimed four on the spin from 1924-27. His tally of five wins remains the joint-highest—an honour he shares with Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1980).

Tiger Woods (1999, 2000, 2006, 2007) comes next on the list with four wins, and there have been a trio of three-time winners: Gene Sarazen (1922, 1923, 1933), Sam Snead (1942, 1949, 1951) and Brooks Koepka (2018, 2019, 2023).

Rory McIlroy is one of a long list of players to have won the PGA Championship twice. This includes his first win at Kiawah Island in 2012, when he set the tournament record winning margin with a huge eight-shot victory.

Last five winners:

• 2024 – (Valhalla GC) – Winner: Xander Schauffele (-21)

Runner-up: Bryson DeChambeau (-20)

• 2023 (Oak Hill CC) – Winner: Brooks Koepka (-9)

Runners-up: Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland (-7)

• 2022 (Southern Hills CC) – Winner: Justin Thomas (-5, playoff)

Runner-up: Will Zalatoris (-5)

• 2021 (Kiawah Island) – Winner: Phil Mickelson (-6)

Runners-up: Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen (-4)

• 2020 (TPC Harding Park) – Winner: Collin Morikawa (-13)

Runners-up: Paul Casey, Dustin Johnson (-11)

Xander Schauffele produced an excellent performance at Valhalla GC last year, going wire-to-wire to break his major championship duck, before then doubling up in The Open later in the year. He arrives at Quail Hollow—a place at which he's twice finished 2^nd—looking to become the eighth player to successfully defend the Wanamaker Trophy.

THE COURSE

Quail Hollow Club was designed by George Cobb and opened in 1961. It has been renovated many times since—first by Arnold Palmer in the 1980s—but it's Tom Fazio who has largely shaped the course we see today, returning as recently as 2023 to further alter the layout.

This will be the second time that we've seen Quail Hollow host the PGA Championship, following Justin Thomas' first major championship win here in 2017. Of course, the venue is much more familiar to audiences as the host of the Truist Championship (formerly the Wells Fargo Championship) on the PGA Tour.

This par 71 will play 68yds longer than it did for last year's Truist Championship, now measuring 7626yds. It possesses 4x par 3s (184-249yds), 11x par 4s (344-530yds) and 3x par 5s (546-592yds).

Quail Hollow averages a winning score of -13.9 across its last 10 renewals of the Truist Championship. The course will play similar to the way it does in that event this week, with the fairways and greens cut slightly shorter, and the rough just 0.75-inches longer. With conditions likely to be softer than the 2017 edition of the PGA Championship due to this May date—as opposed to being played in August in 2017—I'd expect scoring to be lower than Justin Thomas' -8 winning score that year.

This classically tree-lined course is rather hilly, with frequent elevation changes throughout. Large, smartly positioned bunkers offer protection, while water is in-play on seven holes, including each of the final three—a trio of holes famously dubbed the "Green Mile" due to their difficulty.

The doglegging fairways are predominantly narrow, ranking as the 15^th hardest to hit on the PGA Tour across the last six seasons. Those deep bunkers penally tighten the landing areas and although the rough is heavily overseeded with perennial ryegrass at this time of year, the extra growth should make things that bit tougher for players missing the short grass.

There's a 50/50 split between the bermudagrass base and poa trivialis overseed on the fairways and the putting surfaces. Said greens are large and elevated, with severe undulations and littered with run-off areas. They possess the sixth-lowest greens-in-regulation percentages on the PGA Tour; also ranking inside the top 10 in both scrambling and putting difficulty.

The course offers some birdie chances, with each par 5 measuring below 600yds and two sub-350yd par 4s. However, mammoth holes await elsewhere, including three 500yd+ par 4s (two of which exceed 525yds) and three par 3s over 200yds—none more challenging than the 249yd 6^th.

As mentioned, water plays a huge part of the "Green Mile" and ensures plenty of jeopardy right until the end at this course. It begins with the monstrous, 529yd par 4 16^th, guarding both the fairway and green to the left; then sitting short, left and long of the large, sloping green on the now 223yd par 3 17^th.

Quail Hollow closes out with another lengthy par 4, in the shape of the 494yd 18^th. A creek runs up the entire left-hand side of this hole—that plays even longer due to being uphill—and will prove a serious test of nerve for anyone chasing our second major of the year on Sunday evening.

THE WEATHER

I've already discussed the potentially soft conditions due to the timing of the event, and the forecast looks set to back that up. Thunderstorms are predicted from Sunday-Wednesday at Quail Hollow, bringing a deluge of rain—with as much as 37mm expected to fall on Monday.

Although that will make an already lengthy course feel lengthier, it will also result in receptive greens on Thursday, and with an 8mph breeze unlikely to prove much of a deterrent, players could score heavily early on.

That being said, there isn't a substantial threat of further rain during the tournament days, and we'll hopefully see the course firm up as the week progresses.

KEY STATS

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

Quail Hollow demands a high quality of play right through the bag. However, on a long, soft course, with narrow fairways and lush, wet rough, top-class and long drivers should enjoy conditions the most.

These two areas are always key here and we don't have to go too far back for evidence of this. Rory McIlroy won at the course for the fourth time last year and ranked 1^st both off-the-tee and in driving distance. He was followed home by Xander Schauffele, who ranked 2^nd OTT and 3^rd in driving distance.

2023 Truist Championship winner, Wyndham Clark ranked inside the top 20 in each area and five of the top six ranked inside the top 20 in driving distance.

Rory McIlroy ranked 2^nd in driving distance and 18^th OTT when he took the title in 2021. Furthermore, three of the top four ranked among the top eight OTT and four of the top five ranked 11^th or higher in driving distance.

Max Homa ranked 18^th OTT and 23^rd in driving distance when winning in 2019; 2018 winner, Jason Day ranked 12^th in driving distance; and 2017 PGA Championship winner at Quail Hollow, Justin Thomas ranked 18^th in driving distance.

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation/Proximity from 175yds+

All-round ball-striking strength is a must here and it's all about the long irons, with a substantial proportion of approaches coming from 175yds+.

Along with driving the ball well, last year's Truist Championship top two also excelled with their irons—Rory McIlroy ranked 4^th in approach and greens-in-regulation; Xander Schauffele led the field in each stat.

Wyndham Clark ranked 1^st in both areas when he won in 2023; Rory McIlroy ranked 3^rd in GIR and 10^th in approach in 2021; and Justin Thomas ranked inside the top 25 in both at the 2017 PGA Championship.

• SG: Putting (bermudagrass/poa trivialis)

Quail Hollow's greens are notoriously tricky to putt on and it's no surprise to see that most contenders here usually rank high with the putter.

Rory McIlroy ranked 8^th in this area when winning last year and 3^rd in 2021; Wyndham Clark ranked 3^rd in 2023; Max Homa ranked 1^st in 2019; Jason Day ranked 2^nd in 2018; and Justin Thomas ranked 4^th in the 2017 PGA Championship.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Arnold Palmer Invitational (Bay Hill)

Bay Hill is one of the most demanding all-round challenges on the PGA Tour, where strong ball striking is a necessity. It ranks closely to Quail Hollow across every area and requires players to hit a high percentage of approaches from 175yds+.

Notable correlating form:

Rory McIlroy:

Quail Hollow (1^st, 1^st, 1^st, 1^st) / API (1^st)

Jason Day:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / API (1^st)

Wyndham Clark:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / API (2^nd)

Francesco Molinari:

Quail Hollow (2^nd) / API (1^st)

Joel Dahmen:

Quail Hollow (2^nd) / API (5^th)

Tyrrell Hatton:

Quail Hollow (3^rd) / API (1^st, 2^nd)

Harris English:

Quail Hollow (3^rd) / API (2^nd)

Viktor Hovland:

Quail Hollow (3^rd) / API (2^nd)

Keith Mitchell:

Quail Hollow (3^rd, 8^th) / API (5^th, 6^th)

Byeong Hun An:

Quail Hollow (3^rd) / API (8^th, 8^th, 10^th)

Sungjae Im:

Quail Hollow (4^th, 8^th) / API (3^rd, 3^rd)

Gary Woodland:

Quail Hollow (4^th, 5^th) / API (5^th)

Luke List:

Quail Hollow (6^th, 9^th) / API (7^th, 10^th)

Farmers Insurance Open/2025 Genesis Invitational (Torrey Pines – South)

Torrey Pines South is more exposed than Quail Hollow, but as a lengthy, major championship-level course with narrow fairways and an emphasis on high-quality long iron play, players have regularly transferred form between these two venues.

Notable correlating form:

Jason Day:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / Torrey Pines (1^st, 1^st)

Max Homa:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / Torrey Pines (1^st)

Patrick Reed:

Quail Hollow (2^nd) / Torrey Pines (1^st)

Xander Schauffele:

Quail Hollow (2^nd, 2^nd) / Torrey Pines (2^nd)

Joel Dahmen:

Quail Hollow (2^nd) / Torrey Pines (9^th, 9^th)

Harris English:

Quail Hollow (3^rd) / Torrey Pines (1^st)

Viktor Hovland:

Quail Hollow (3^rd) / Torrey Pines (2^nd)

Sungjae Im:

Quail Hollow (4^th, 8^th) / Torrey Pines (4^th, 4^th, 6^th)

Luke List:

Quail Hollow (6^th, 9^th) / Torrey Pines (1^st)

Kyle Stanley:

Quail Hollow (6^th, 8^th) / Torrey Pines (2^nd)

Pat Perez:

Quail Hollow (6^th, 8^th) / Torrey Pines (2^nd, 4^th)

Denny McCarthy:

Quail Hollow (6^th, 8^th) / Torrey Pines (5^th)

Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village)

Muirfield Village is another lengthy layout at which major contenders often perform well. It has greens that are both tough to hit and scramble around, whilst again, approaches from 175yds+ are commonplace.

Notable correlating form:

Rickie Fowler:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / Memorial (2^nd, 2^nd)

Justin Thomas:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / Memorial (2^nd, 4^th)

Max Homa:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / Memorial (5^th, 6^th)

Aaron Wise:

Quail Hollow (2^nd) / Memorial (2^nd)

Viktor Hovland:

Quail Hollow (3^rd) / Memorial (1^st)

Byeong Hun An:

Quail Hollow (3^rd) / Memorial (2^nd)

Jason Dufner:

Quail Hollow (4^th, 5^th) / Memorial (1^st)

Gary Woodland:

Quail Hollow (4^th, 5^th) / Memorial (4^th, 5^th, 6^th)

Peter Uihlein:

Quail Hollow (5^th) / Memorial (5^th)

Kyle Stanley:

Quail Hollow (6^th, 8^th) / Memorial (2^nd, 3^rd)

Denny McCarthy:

Quail Hollow (6^th, 8^th) / Memorial (2^nd, 5^th)

The Masters (Augusta National)

Augusta's exacting test of golf often ties in with other major venues and Quail Hollow is no different. The long game challenge compares especially closely, with length key at each venue, and approaches from 175yds+ the norm.

Notable correlating form:

Rory McIlroy:

Quail Hollow (1^st, 1^st, 1^st, 1^st) / The Masters (1^st)

Jason Day:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / The Masters (2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th)

Rickie Fowler:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / The Masters (2^nd, 5^th)

Max Homa:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / The Masters (3^rd)

Patrick Reed:

Quail Hollow (2^nd) / The Masters (1^st)

Xander Schauffele:

Quail Hollow (2^nd, 2^nd) / The Masters (2^nd, 3^rd)

Louis Oosthuizen:

Quail Hollow (2^nd) / The Masters (2^nd)

Sungjae Im:

Quail Hollow (4^th, 8^th) / The Masters (2^nd, 5^th)

Valspar Championship (Innisbrook – Copperhead Course)

The Copperhead Course is not quite as long as Quail Hollow, but as a tight, tree-lined course with similarly-sized bermudagrass/poa trivialis greens, and requiring many approaches from 175yds+, it can act as a helpful comp this week.

Notable correlating form:

Justin Thomas:

Quail Hollow (1^st) / Valspar (2^nd, 3^rd)

Patrick Reed:

Quail Hollow (2^nd) / Valspar (2^nd, 2^nd)

Louis Oosthuizen:

Quail Hollow (2^nd) / Valspar (2^nd)

Viktor Hovland:

Quail Hollow (3^rd) / Valspar (1^st)

Paul Casey:

Quail Hollow (4^th, 5^th) / Valspar (1^st, 1^st)

Gary Woodland:

Quail Hollow (4^th, 5^th) / Valspar (1^st)

Sungjae Im:

Quail Hollow (4^th, 8^th) / Valspar (4^th)

TOURNAMENT TRENDS

• Previous PGA Championship form has almost become a necessity for winners in recent years. Nine of the last 10 had previously recorded a top 20 in the event and eight had hit the top 10.
• The need for a higher standard of major championship form in general is even stronger, with nine of the last 10 PGA Championship winners having recorded a major top 10, and seven finished as high as 2^nd.
• Good form in the run-up to the event is often an indicator. Eight of those last 10 winners finished inside the top 20 on their latest start and seven hit the top five in their last three.
• That being said, it is not imperative that players enter this event with winning form, as only half of the winners since 2015 had previously won that year.
• Each of the last 10 winners had recorded at least two wins on the PGA Tour.
• Finally, a lengthy absence is difficult to overcome, with nine of the 10 most recent winners having teed it up the previous week.

THE FIELD

The PGA Championship is attributed to being the best field in golf and it's easy to see why, with 99 of the world's top 100 in attendance this week. World #1, Scottie Scheffler heads the field and the top three is finished off by our first major champion of the year, Rory McIlroy (#2) and the defending champion, Xander Schauffele (#3).

Schauffele is one of 14 former winners present, joined by Brooks Koepka (2023, 2019, 2018), Justin Thomas (2022, 2017), Phil Mickelson (2021, 2005), Collin Morikawa (2020), Jimmy Walker (2016), Jason Day (2015), Rory McIlroy (2014, 2012), Jason Dufner (2013), Keegan Bradley (2011), Martin Kaymer (2010), Padraig Harrington (2008), Vijay Singh (2004, 1998) and Shaun Micheel (2003).

We of course have 20 PGA Professionals among the field, including one of the stars of the 2023 edition, Michael Block; the three leading players from the DP World Tour's Asian Swing, Eugenio Chacarra, Keita Nakajima and Marco Penge will all tee it up; and following his brilliant chip-in on the first playoff hole to win a maiden PGA Tour title in last week's Myrtle Beach Classic, New Zealand's Ryan Fox secures that final spot in the field.

US PGA Championship Odds

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders: Rory McIlroy 5/1, Scottie Scheffler 5/1, Bryson DeChambeau 10/1, Xander Schauffele 18/1, Justin Thomas 18/1, Collin Morikawa 20/1, Jon Rahm 20/1

Rory and Scottie can't be separated at the top of the betting this week. Though due to his record at Quail Hollow and with the weight now lifted following his long-awaited Masters success, it's the Northern Irishman who would be my favourite here.

That being said I've not been drawn in by the price of those joint-favourites and continuing to show positive signs last week, I'm instead taking defending champion, Xander Schauffele to successfully retain the Wanamaker Trophy in North Carolina.

3 pts Xander Schauffele each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 18/1

Xander arrives here after recording his fourth top-20 finish in a row in Philadelphia last week, as he signed off with a four-under 66 to finish 11^th in the Truist Championship. This followed on from him finishing 12^th in the Valspar Championship, 8^th in The Masters and 18^th in the RBC Heritage on his three previous starts.

He's struggled with the driver since returning from injury, but in the final round of the Truist he ranked 1^st in the field off-the-tee, producing his best performance in this area since last year's BMW Championship. His iron play has remained strong, ranking 7^th in approach and he has looked at his sharpest with the longer irons, ranking 17^th from 175-200yds and 21^st from 200yds+.

When we combine that ball-striking promise with him finding his best putting performance of the season last week, he looks primed to produce a stubborn defence of his PGA Championship title.

Xander's Quail Hollow record speaks for itself, having finishing 2^nd at the course in each of the previous two seasons. He's also recorded runner-up finishes at Augusta and Torrey Pines, and as a now two-time major champion, I expect nothing but a contending effort this week.

2.5 pts Ludvig Aberg each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 22/1

Ludvig Aberg hasn’t quite been as impressive as he was in 2024, largely due to some regressive iron play. However, his excellence with the driver is a much-envied asset to have around this course, and he can earn his major breakthrough at an event that has often been the gateway to major success for the game’s biggest talents.

Aberg began his season with a 5^th-place finish in The Sentry, but struggled through his next two starts due to illness. He returned in remarkable fashion in the Genesis Invitational, firing a final-round 66 at Torrey Pines to win his second PGA Tour title. Although he’s been struggling for consistency since, it is a positive that he was able to up his level at our first major of the year, as he finished 7^th in The Masters.

He remains one of the best drivers on tour, ranking 9^th OTT and 27^th in driving distance. While he has failed to find form with his approach play overall, he has looked better with the long irons, ranking 6^th from 200yds+, and though not as reliable with the putter as last season, he’s still been solid enough.

The Swede hasn’t played Quail Hollow before, but in just a short space of time he’s built up a taking C.V for this challenge. This includes that victory at Torrey Pines earlier in the year, along with 2^nd and 7^th-place finish on just two trips to Augusta National.

Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas have each used this event as a springboard to further major victories in the last eight years, and I fancy Aberg—who is currently the highest-ranking non-major winner in the world—to add his name to that star-studded list this week.

1.25 pts Brooks Koepka each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 40/1

Brooks Koepka missed the cut when we were on at Augusta last month. However, he hit the ball well over the first two rounds there and with his long game remaining in good shape on LIV since, I expect him to be much more of a feature this week.

Koepka’s performances this season have been a touch in and out. He’s recorded just the two top 10s, courtesy of a runner-up finish in Singapore and a 7^th-place finish in Adelaide; meanwhile, he followed his missed cut in The Masters with finishes of 30^th in Mexico and 19^th in Korea.

He hit the ball well at Augusta, ranking 22^nd in ball striking in round one and 8^th in round two, but was let down by his short game. This appears to have been the case on LIV, as he’s gained strokes in each of his last six starts in approach and five out of six OTT, which is in contrast to him losing strokes around-the-greens in half of those starts and in four out of six on the greens.

That being said, this usually excellent putter found some form with the flat stick in Korea two weeks ago. With his ball striking game an ideal match for this week’s test, this three-time PGA Championship winner was hard to ignore.

Koepka finished 13^th on his Quail Hollow debut in the 2017 PGA Championship and has only played the course on one further occasion in a stroke play event, finishing 42^nd in 2018. He does have an excellent record at Augusta, having twice finished runner-up—something that certainly strengthens his case.

1.25 pts Viktor Hovland each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 40/1

Viktor Hovland disappointed in last week’s Truist Championship, finishing 54^th. That being said, his long game looked good over the opening two rounds, and I’m happy to forgive him a subdued weekend display in an event that should play to his strengths.

Hovland started the season disappointingly, recording one solitary top 25 at Pebble Beach across his first six starts. He brought that run to an abrupt end at the Valspar Championship, claiming his first PGA Tour title in over 18 months, and he backed that up with finishes of 21^st in The Masters and 13^th in the RBC Heritage prior to last week.

His iron play has been standout, ranking 11^th overall and he’s been eye-catchingly strong with the long irons, ranking 1^st from 175-200yds and 27^th from 200yds+. The driver has been sound, displaying a reasonable level of power and accuracy, and whilst his putter has frustrated more often than not, we can take some promise from his best display of the season coming on similar surfaces in the Valspar Championship, where he ranked 2^nd.

Hovland finished 3^rd on his Quail Hollow debut in 2021, ending the week just two shots adrift of Rory McIlroy. He’s since returned twice, finishing 43^rd in 2023 and 24^th last year. As a player with some strong comp form, winning both the Valspar and Memorial Tournament, as well as finishing 2^nd at Torrey Pines and Bay Hill, he ticks many boxes this week.

1 pt Harris English each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 150/1

Harris English was also among our selections at Philadelphia Cricket Club last week, where he eventually finished 11^th. His long game again looked strong there, ranking 10^th in ball striking and having already won on a long, wet course at Torrey Pines earlier this year, he appealed most of those at three figures.

English was a touch slow to get going this year, finishing outside the top 40 on his first two starts, but his season burst into life in the Farmers Insurance Open, as he survived a tough final round to win by a shot. He’s made eight starts since and has achieved four top 25s, three of which came over his last four starts and includes an 11^th-place finish in The Masters.

He's looked sharp throughout his bag, but it’s the putter that has shone most, ranking 21^st. His ball striking has improved greatly after a shaky start to the season, gaining strokes in five of his last seven starts in approach and OTT, and showing both length and accuracy with the driver, he should be able to handle this long layout.

English has played Quail Hollow on six occasions and went particularly close in 2023, finishing 3^rd. He not only won the Farmers Insurance Open this year, but he also finished 2^nd there in 2015 (along with finishing 3^rd at Torrey Pines in the 2021 US Open) and possessing an additional runner-up finish in a correlating event at Bay Hill, he’s a proven big course performer.

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